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EURO-USD

How To Lose Money With CONFUSION (timeframe mixing) The issue for many new traders is understanding the correlation between timeframes. We often get caught up in indicators, news hype, chat room posts, and various other things. One of the biggest challenges I see when talking to new traders is simply the lack of "experience" in reading multiple timeframes. This causes confusion and even self-doubt. The issue with the internet being so vast is there is a lot of info - but what do you go with & why? In this post I have tried to "dumb it down" - the simple idea is to pick your timeframes based on your trading style. Now if work gets in the way and you need to trade end of day or even swing (Longer-term) then really, you shouldn't stress so much about a 15 minute candle. A lot can happen throughout the day. But on the opposite side of the spectrum, if you are sat in front of your screen every minute the market is open. (scalping) then trying to work out what the monthly is doing whilst you hold a trade for an hour is not going to affect your trade (in general). To give you a great example of this - I trade COT data as it's swing, with Monthly and weekly bias. I will have a mentee say something like "COT is a buy, but the price has dropped". Yes if you're looking at the 4-hour candle. If you think what institutional players can manage in terms of drawdown, especially using hedging techniques. It's far greater than the guy investing £5k of savings into Bitcoin. If a hedge fund buys Bitcoin at 45k and the price drops to 22.5k - the likelihood is they have a hedged position & will be buying it all back at fair value. Whereas Mr £5k has lost some sleep & half of his capital - bailed, only to see the price shoot back up above his original entry. You think of someone like Elon Musk - if his entry of a Billion Dollars was at 40k (example) and price drops to 20k, he has a paper loss of 500m for sure, it will hurt. But again if the Tesla share price drops from 800 to 700, he has a paper loss of (say 20 Billion) - a 500m loss on paper is less of a concern. *** You get the picture. Investors & traders know that things don't just moon! they have dips, impulsive moves and so on. So take the charts into account - You have an idea of what timeframes to pick based on your own personal availability or your style you have already identified. As a scalper it's easy to use 4 hour or even a 1 hour candle for your bias - a 15minute for a local area of interest & an entry on a 1m - 5m chart. (example only). If you trade swing trades (depending on the overall time & expectations) a weekly bias, a daily interest and a 4hour trigger could be what you look for. Here are some examples; In these examples - all I have done is used 1 tool. This is only to show the idea - If stochastic is up then I want to be Bullish, if down I'll consider Bearish moves. Keep in mind this could be anything from above/below a moving average, a key price level or a magnitude of other things. Even other tools like RSI for example. Example of step down The idea is this gives you a directional bias. Then we look at the area of interest. And finally - we want to look down on the next timeframe for the trigger (entry) Traders can easily get confused with one timeframe saying one thing and the next timeframe up or down saying something else. If you can treat it like a tick sheet, you can step down with confidence and work on a strategy favouring your directional bias & that's in confluence with the time period & your expectations. This really is an oversimplified breakdown. Just to give a general idea. Have a great week! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Education
by Mayfair_Ventures
10
Do you suffer from (Retail Sentiment)What is retail sentiment? Have you ever noticed on your broker site that it has a statement along the lines of "70%+ of retail traders lose money"??? This is directly related to retail sentiment - in short, institutional money make their money on others losing money in the online marketplace. Every forex trader will always have an opinion about the market. “It’s a bear market, everything is going to hell!” “Things are looking bright. I’m pretty bullish on the markets right now.” Regardless of the technical analysis or the news that comes out, traders often get it wrong. There's some simple logic to this, If you look into COT reports (Commitment of Traders) 🍪 see the last COT post if you're not familiar with COT. Well in addition to COT there is also a tool called sentiment - this info shows what traders are doing on global broker platforms such as IG index. In this current condition and at this precise time it has a mixed bag of; SPX 47% of retail are long - now you would assume with a long stock market it would correlate to a weaker DXY situation, yet retail are also 57% to the short side on EURUSD. Which makes very little sense. Now assume this is only a small minority on one platform like IG index. Well - with another look, you will see retail are currently; Long - USDJPY 67% (Long DXY) Short AUDUSD 63% (also long DXY) However, 76% long USDCAD - and then long Gold 83%. Do all the numbers match up? Knowing 70% or more of retail traders lose money - what would you say? Unfortunately, since the forex market is traded over-the-counter, it doesn’t have a centralized market. This means that the volume of each currency traded cannot be easily measured, but again this is where COT can be used in parallel to the sentiment. This might be 👽 to you right now. But it's a very powerful tool. On the COT side, you can see into the volume traded and will notice if brokers are net-long, institutional investors are often net-short. Buyers need sellers. It's as simple as that. IG sentiment can be found here - www.dailyfx.com Hope this helps someone. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Education
by Mayfair_Ventures
4
What moves exchange rates, and what exchange rates moveHere is a list of what impacts the strength of a currency, as well as the impacts this strength has on the currency country(ies). Things are of course more subtle than a simple excel list binary check. For example, some inflation is not automatically bad, it can be the sign of a country economic growth, and as it gets bad the relationship is not linear, inflation slightly high will not scare many investors and industrials, but when it gets to a really bad high value investors flee at an exponential rate which exacerbates the currency devaluation further. Where the currency goes it is said depends on where "the big boys" want it to go, in particular central banks. Capitalist countries look to increase profits, Communist/socialist countries seem to also like manipulating their currency which they use for propaganda purposes, to increase their control, fulfill their goals, and to increase their competitiveness so they may improve the lives of "the workers". But the "big boys" do not have full control. Ask the BOJ, ask the BOE governor from the early 90s. Here is the example - without getting into the details - of a bad everything horror story (no you can not short it they have capital controls): Another example, after the initial "safe haven" rally of the USD in March 2020 following the stock market crash, the dollar went into a big downtrend against European currencies: And a final example, China, the biggest holder of usdollars, has been selling its bags (public information), and their economy did much better in 2020 than the US one, the price has been unsurprisingly trending for over half a year now:
Education
by MrRenev
3
EURUSD: Year's High AHEAD!!! Key Levels & Scenarios EURUSD is approaching a key daily structure resistance. 1.15 is year's high, short rally from that level was just crazy in march. we don't know how the market will react this time, so we must be prepared for both scenarios: in case of a bullish violation of the underlined resistance (daily higher high higher close) the pair will most likely keep growing. next midterm resistances will be: 1.155 1.160 if the structure will be respected (some reversal formation on lower timeframes) the market may retrace. closest midterm supports will be: 1.137 1.130 of course, bias right now is bullish, but it is too late to jump in. let's patiently wait and see whats gonna happen.
Education
by VasilyTrader
18
EURUSD: Key Levels EURUSD started a strong bullish movement. Multiple strong resistances are ahead. Key levels based on 3 days chart analysis: Resistance 1 - 1.11 level based on a resistance line of a major channel + horizontal 3 days/daily structure Resistance 2 - 1.12 level based on a horizontal weekly/3 days/daily structure Resistance 3 - 1.15 levels based on a horizontal weekly/3 day/daily structure + it is this year's high Closest supports are: Support 1 - 1.0975 level based on a recently broken daily structure Support 2 - 1.08 level based on a horizontal 3 days/daily structure pay attention to the lower timeframe once the market reaches one of these levels to catch a pullback or reverse
Education
by VasilyTrader
12
EURUSD - SUPPLY & DEMAND ZONE ANALYSISHi traders. Whenever you are looking at a technical level, always ask yourself the following: - Am I buying at a potential bargain/wholesale/discount price? (supply or demand zones) - Why is there more likely to be more supply/demand orders at that area? (new traders entering/traders taking profit) - What are the underlying fundamental/sentiment drivers that should push price in my favour? (interest rates, business cycle, risk on/risk off) If all 3 are in your favour, take the trade, manage your risk and go for more than you've risked. Always remember this trade is only 1 trade in the next thousand you're going to take. Process over outcome!
Education
by leonrowe
LEARN TO TRADE THE GARTLEY PATTERN IN 5 EASY STEPSSTAGE 1: THE BULLISH IMPULSE LEG A bullish impulse leg is a strong move in price action to the upside. The impulse leg can be a mixture of bullish and bearish candles, but must have a bullish overall direction. The start of the impulse leg should be marked as X and the top of the impulse leg should be marked as A. STAGE 2: B LEG RETRACEMENT Now that you have identified your X to A impulse leg you are now looking for the B leg, which is a retracement of the X to A impulse leg. Take your Fibonacci retracement tool and draw from your X leg to your A leg. The crucial Fibonacci levels you are looking for are the 61.80% and 78.60% Price action must at least touch the 61.80% retracement but cannot touch the 78.60% retracement. As you can see by the illustration, the candle does not need to close below the 61.80% retracement but must at least spike through. The bullish Gartley pattern will be invalid if price action touches the 78.60% retracement of the X to A move. STAGE 3: C LEG RETRACEMENT Once you have identified a valid X to A impulse leg and a B leg retracement, you are now looking for a valid C leg retracement. Take your Fibonacci retracement tool and draw from your A leg to your B leg. The crucial Fibonacci retracement level you are looking for is the 61.80% Price action must at least touch the 61.80% but cannot spike above the A leg resistance. The candle does not need to close above the 61.80% but must at least spike through. The bullish Gartley pattern will be invalid if price action spiked above the A leg resistance. STAGE 4: D LEG COMPLETION Now that you have a valid X, A, B and C move you are looking for the final leg in price action at which point you will buy the chosen currency pair. Take your Fibonacci retracement tool and draw from your B leg to your A leg. You are looking for a 1.272% which will now give you a valid D leg completion of the bullish Gartley pattern . STAGE 5: PLACING YOUR TARGETS When looking to take targets on the bullish Gartley Pattern the first step is to use your Fibonacci retracement tool. With your Fibonacci retracement tool draw from the A to D leg, you are looking for target 1 at the 38.20% and target 2 at the 61.80%. To protect the profits you have accumulated at target 1 it is advised you move your stop loss to breakeven once the 38.20% target 1 has been attained, thus giving you a risk free trade to target 2. KEY NOTES & RULES: When trading the bullish Gartley pattern, the pattern is meant to be traded at 1.272% D leg completion only. If you believe the pattern is unfolding but price is only at point B, be patient and wait until price reaches the D leg completion. The power of the pattern comes from converging Fibonacci levels of all points from X to D. Point B must at least touch the 61.80% retracement but cannot touch the 78.60% from the X to A move. Point C must touch the 61.80% but cannot spike above the A leg resistance. Point D is complete when price action touches the 1.272% retracement of the B to A move. Stop loss must be placed below the X leg structure support. Stop loss must also be a minimum of a 1:1 risk reward to the 38.20% target 1. Target 1 at the 38.20% retracement of the A to D move. Target 2 at the 61.80% retracement of the A to D move. CURRENCY PAIR: This pattern like any other is more profitable with certain currency pairs, you should do your own back testing on this before trading the pattern. Website: www.UKForexSignals.com Instagram: www.Instagram.com Instagram: www.Instagram.com Twitter: www.Twitter.com DISCLAIMER: Please note I am only providing my own trading information for your benefit and insight to my trading techniques, you should do your own due diligence and not take this information as a trade signal.
Education
by UnknownUnicorn180388
28