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Eurusd-3

🔍What you need to know about the DXY index🤔🔍 DXY INDEX (USDX) displays the value of USD against a basket of six foreign currencies: EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, SEK, CHF. This index is calculated on the basis of the weighted average ratio of USD to six currencies. ➡️ EUR —> 57,6% ➡️ JPY —> 13,6% ➡️ GBP —> 11,9% ➡️ CAD —> 9,1% ➡️ SEK —> 4,2% ➡️ CHF —> 3,6% ➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖ ❗️ Interesting note ❗️ Given the fact that the EUR is included in the DXY (the largest weight in the index, so it is not surprising that the DXY and EURUSD are highly correlated), the dollar index is the currency of the member countries of the EUR zone. ➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖ The index was created by JPMorgan Chase, which officially released this trading instrument to the market in 1973. The level of 100 was taken as the base value. The index was not subject to any changes, except for the introduction of EUR in Europe. DXY allows you to form an idea of ​​the value of the USD and its weight in the world. In addition, this index may signal a recession in the world: the rapid growth of DXY indicates that market participants prefer to withdraw their investments in cash, i.e. in USD, and in moments of economic instability, buy US bonds with these USD. 🔴 Thus, the index is used as a separate speculative trading instrument in the market, and also serves as an indicator that allows you to determine current financial trends.
TVC:DXYEducation
by Market-Mentor
4
An Idiot's Guide to EURUSD: 5 Steps to Success 💲💲💲Synopsis If you trade Forex then you know the weekends are the best time to analyse the market. Everybody likes to talk about how volatile EURUSD is, but what they don't tell you is that the market is ranging a good 80%-90% of the time; good deals do NOT last long. In fact, half of a days price movement can play out in 15-45 minutes, It's that fast. The best entries are usually snatched up in a matter of minutes, meaning that slow momentum oscillators and lagging trend following indicators don't perform well in these conditions. EURUSD in my opinion trades a lot like CL (crude WTI), where trading decisions need to be made while volatility is low to mitigate risk. Translation: if you can't win in a range, you're going to blow your account in this market, trust me. I see so many people on here setting targets 2-3 times the daily atr with the expectation that they'll be paid by the end of the day or the next day. Don't do that, please. It's not a sprint, it's a marathon. Long term gains depend on practical consistent returns, not 10:1 RRs. It's actually a lot more realistic to take ZERO to two 20-40 pip trades per day. Over the course of a week it adds up. The chart: This week we came off of a really strong bullish surge away from parity, and the market then did what it does best, range. And the way that prices are moving right now is just classic EURUSD, I love it...I get so nostalgic, because ranges like these are how I learned to trade; the way that the market recycles over and over makes it so fun to trade, it never gets stale. Since it's the weekend and the markets are closed, I wanted to take this opportunity to share with anyone who might be wondering what it's like to day trade this market. How to trade ranges: Step 1: Find your levels... The easiest way is to map out support and resistance zones. On the chart, I use my own variation of the Williams fractals indicator (I call them Neo fractals 😎) for every prominent swing high or swing low, the indicator draws a horizontal ray from the highest, lowest close and projects it out into the future. You can see the spots where lines start stacking up in a certain price range act as stronger support or resistance than the areas with only one dotted line. It only takes about 5-10 minutes per day to do this by hand though, so an indicator definitely isn't necessary. It's really important to be able to eyeball pivot points yourself anyways. Step 2: Determine market phase... After you've mapped everything out, it becomes a lot clearer what's happening in the market, and if the market is ranging or trending. If the market's ranging, you will see far more s/r lines on your chart especially once you start seeing s/r lines stacking up close to one another. A clear giveaway that the market is ranging is when price makes strong moves in one direction, only to return back from where it came, later in the day. Once you've determined what phase of the market you're even closer to spotting high quality trades. Step 3: The next step is to find areas of value... In general you want to find the areas within the range which provide the most exclusive prices, And steer away from price ranges that hold 80-90% of the activity on the cart. Being 5-10 pips in profit before a big move will completely change the way you feel about a trade when it starts to go against you (plenty winning trades will go against you, especially if you're trading reversals). On the chart you can see that the supply and demand zones only produced 2-4 trades this week, but all of them were for over 50 pips. These aren't the only trades you can take, but they're definitely the highest RR trades, you can get in a ranging market. Step 4: What for confirmation... There are so many ways to confirm a move, but my favorite for this market is a phenomena that I like to call a spike. (There's probably an actual name for it, but I'm self taught so I just make stuff up as I go 😅) Find a hammer or star candle on a higher chart like the daily or 4hr and it look at that time period again on a lower timeframe, what you'll see is that the hammer or star is actually just a large price movement in one direction followed by an equally large movement in the other direction. What might appear as a spike on a lower timeframe will appear as a hammer or star on a higher time frame, and the larger and longer the chart pattern takes to complete, the larger and longer the move will be in the opposite direction. These are the Rolls Royce of signals. When you realize that a head and shoulders pattern is really just a series of spikes, it will completely change the way that you trade. In my experience, trading price spikes alone out performs every other chart pattern there is, because most candlestick and chart patterns are made up of a series of spikes anyways. Most consolidation periods end in a large spike followed by a 1-200 pip surge in the opposite direction. They appear most often on higher timeframes as hammers and stars, or large engulfment. but on the lower time frames you can watch these things play out over 5 ,10 or even 100 periods sometimes. The key is to have very strict rules for what you consider a spike to be, how many pips? What kind of ratio are you looking for? is it happening in an area of value? etc. Step 5: The range leads to the trend... The reason that trend following strategies under perform in this market is because strong trends don't last long on EU AND getting good value is insanely competitive. The key is to spot these trends early, you have to be looking when nobody else is looking. That means waking up earlier than everyone else and having a plan in place before the move happens...Not seeing a big candle and just hopping in. I try to have a daily strategy in place before the Asian session ends, that way, I''m ready for London and NY. I live in the US, so that means I'm waking up everyday around midnight to 1 in the morning. But most of the time, if my trade starts well, I go back to bed and check back in around 7. If you want to trade EURUSD, that's what it takes though. There might have to be lifestyle changes that you have to make (especially for North and South American traders) in order to really commit yourself to this market and give your trading it the attention that it needs.
Education
by NeoDaNomad
Shocking Truths about Trading no one talks about EP1.After 5 years of self-educating myself in the art of trading while undergoing brutal consistent losses, these are the truths that set me on the path of surprising consistency after internalizing them.....I hope it will for you guys and give more inspiration to the already consistent ones. Shocking Truths no one talks about in trading: 1. You may have the best strategy, signal provider or learned everything about trading, but what counts is what happens to that knowledge 5 seconds before pressing the buy/sell button. 2. What is Mathematically optimal is Psychologically impossible. If you have a strategy that gets wins of 25R but has like 12 losses in a row, DUMP IT. Mathematically, you will make money at the end, Psychologically you will quit before you take trade 13. 3. You start winning in trading when you believe you can lose (Trading Paradox). Consistently profitable traders have one thing in common: they place their next trade like it was already a loser. 4. Extremely good analysts are most often bad traders....you can be right about the direction but fail in the critically important aspect of Entry timing and still lose the trade. 5. IT IS THE SIMPLE THINGS THAT WORK!. Most people will tell you to look for complex strategies that look for "Random walk algorithmic discrepancies that rhyme with Chaos theories....and all that blah..." But I have been on that path and I hate to break it to you that a guy/girl using only support and resistance and simple moving average crossovers with a verified and bactested edge and discipline will most likely be more profitable. 5. THE MORE OBVIOUS A TRADE IS THE GREATER THE CHANCES YOU LOSE IT. Most people think that if a trade has soooo many confluences it is more likely to work....well that might be true to an extent after which it is a blatant fallacy. From historical data and my own personal LIVE trading results, the probability of a trade working out reduces DRASTICALLY when the number of confluences crosses 5. I theorize that this happens because market makers will see all the orders placed at that point is soo much(cause everyone will see the opportunity with their different approaches) and take them all out. 6. No one can sell a money printer, cause it has no price. If someone offers to sell you a robot or STRATEGY that triples your money every month, laugh and pass, if you don't and end up buying that....you deserved to be scammed. Think about it the person can just take $100 and apply his/her magic to it and print out Elon Musk's networth in lower than 3 years using compounding......and he/she will sell you that for $2000?, you must be kidding me!. 7. Your consistency has nothing to do with your strategy but your mind. I can bet you my life's earnings, that there is someone out there, using your exact entry and exit rules but is profitable and you are not. A better strategy brings in more profit, but any random edge with the right mindset and risk management MUST be profitable. 8. Almost everything in life is a pyramid-scheme, & survival of the fittest and trading is not left out. No matter how much we desire to the contrary, it is IMPERATIVE THAT TRADING HAS MORE LOSERS THAN WINNERS. The winners in trading have to be relatively fewer cause they win a lot and hence they need soo many losers to give them that money. There is no bank that hands at money to you when you win, your job as a trader is to outsmart some other fellow and TAKE his/her money and once you come to terms that every dollar lost by you trading, is a dollar gained by someone else in this zero-sum game, you will realize only YOU has got your own back. 9. You can NEVER completely eliminate emotions in trading but you can set rules that allow you trade only when you are at your optimal state, and gives you a day or two vacation when you are down. 10. Reading this article will definitely NOT HELP YOU, it is remembering it the moment before you place your next trade that will. Pls LIKE and Subscribe, I want to know what you think about this article and which point you agree with the most or disagree with. Tell me whether it helped you in any way and if we get 50 likes and 20 comments I will consider making the next episode.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDEducation
by LexyenHille
3
EURUSD.... SEE WHY MANY PEOPLE LOST THIS TRADE... AVOID ITHello Traders, So today I am doing a trade recap on a trade I lost due to lack of detail. Note, in trading, after knowing how trading works, every thing comes down to the level of attention/detail you give to your chart. Detail, detail, detail... never forget. I have labelled the chart accordingly so your understanding can be seamless. But if you still need clarity let me know. I use my weekend to analyse why my trade won or lost. And this is an approach to trading that people should undertake. This should come after journaling your trade. The thing is, you will make mistakes, you will not see everything (detail) but continue. Reduce the number of pairs you trade, reduce the indicators, reduce the trendlines and every other thing... Your chart should be clear and easy on the eyes. I only look at 10 markets (the 7 majors and AUDNZD, CADCHF & EURGBP). I add the 3 crosses only because I want to have alternative for all the currencies excluding JPY. I don't use indicators (not saying it is bad but reduce it), I don't use trendline (because price is moves horizontally - unpopular opinion). When you have just a few pairs, you are able to understand the moves better and you can free your brain from analysing so many pairs. Just imagine using indicators, lines upon lines, and the market changes form... now you need to start all over again your analysis on all your multiple markets, looking at so many things. Trust me, you are bound to miss the obvious details not to talk of the hidden ones and its a lot of work. I am sure you must have experienced it. I am still very bullish on EURUSD and right now, I am not looking for an entry, I am waiting for a break of the 4H high then I will look for an entry which I will share on my page. If you would like to see it, all you need to do is click on follow. I will also link my previous analysis on EURUSD, AUDNZD, USDJPY Stay tuned for more. BR. David
Education
by jabariofafrica
4
EUR/USD most popular currency in the world!A little history… The euro is a new currency that was born in 1999. It was created on the basis of the "European monetary unit", which replaced (abolished) the entire national currency of the countries of the European Union. Therefore, the peculiarity of the euro is that it is sensitive not only to the macroeconomics of the entire EU, but also to the individual economies of France and Germany. It is the most popular currency pair in the world, representing the two largest economies in the world. The euro was created to facilitate international trade between European trading partners. The pair has experienced significant fluctuations since its founding in 1999, caused by many global events, such as the technology boom that led to the real estate price bubble and the European debt crisis. The European Central Bank (ECB) plays the role of the issuer and regulator of the pan-European currency. The main support for its creation in 1998 is the banking system, which is based in Frankfurt am Main, and its fund was created on the basis of the participation of all representatives of EU countries. In addition to its issuing, supervisory and monitoring activities, the ECB charter is responsible for maintaining the financial stability of the eurozone. General technical specifications More than a third of the total volume of transactions in the foreign exchange market fall on a pair of euros to the dollar. This is due to the economic scale of the countries. The base currency is the euro, the dollar is the quoted currency. In other words, the euro-dollar exchange rate shows how many dollars you will have to pay for one euro. If there is positive news in the US and you predict a rise in the dollar, then you should sell. If you predict the growth of European currencies against the dollar, then you should buy quotes. What factors do the euro dollar exchange rate depend on? The main factors contributing to the change in the euro-dollar price revolve around the monetary policy of the United States. There are several levers that can help the Fed regulate and change cash flows in various ways: Open Market Interventions; Increase or decrease of the discount rate; Managing the level of reserve requirements. The Federal Reserve Board may immediately change the terms of the reserve and the discount rate. By changing one of the three factors, the Fed affects the amount of funds and ultimately changes the real ratio of the dollar to other currencies (including the euro). Thus, the Fed's decision is a long-term priority factor for the euro currency pair. The main factor affecting the euro/dollar exchange rate is the interest rate of the Federal Reserve System. This indicator represents the daily payment of interest on loans by credit institutions (banks). When it is necessary to tighten or weaken the national currency, US financial regulators will change interest rates. Traditionally, these measures have had a significant impact on both the foreign exchange and the stock market. Euro to Dollar exchange rate The European Central Bank regulates the monetary policy of the EU countries. The main decision on the European exchange rate is made by the Governing Council, consisting of representatives of national banks of the EU countries. The main objective of the ECB's work is financial stability and full response to the consequences of the global financial crisis of 2008. Serious economic problems of all EU countries can have a negative impact on the euro exchange rate. This is evident from the dynamics of euro prices during the economic crises in Greece and Spain. Macroeconomic emissions are also a very important factor influencing the strengthening or weakening of the euro. The most important news is from Germany. This is due to the fact that Germany is the largest economy in the European Union. The most important information is the state of GDP, the theoretical and real inflation index, the growth or decline rates of industrial production, as well as unemployment figures. It is important to take into account the deficit and the effectiveness of current measures to combat the economic downturn of the economy. Techniques for making a profit There is a strong inverse correlation between the values of EUR/USD and USD/CHF, which shows an approximate relationship between the euro and the franc. This is due to the fact that Switzerland's economic situation largely depends on the economic and political development of the EU. In most cases, after the euro falls against the dollar, the euro/franc currency pair immediately falls. Given the correlation between the British pound and the euro, the pound/dollar pair has a significant correlation. Euro Dollar chart To make money in euro dollars, traders need some skills. Fast trading in 15 minutes or even 5 minutes can allow you to make a significant profit. The frequent volatility of this quote allows you to implement the most daring and risky trading strategies. A moving average or a combined indicator (for example, MACD) will be able to give a fairly accurate entry point. Exit from the position can traditionally be based on a breakout of the price channel. When using the chart for 1 day or more, the deviation and reversal of the position can also be based on the intersection of the moving average. Conclusion EUR/USD has a relatively small history, but in this short time the pair has become popular with many. High volatility creates many opportunities for earnings, but do not forget about the risks. The pair is dangerous for untrained traders. Good luck!
Education
by DeGRAM
2
How To Trade Like Banks Using Accumulation & Distribution: FOREXIn this video, I will be sharing How To Trade Like Banks Using Accumulation & Distribution and give my forex tutorial so you can watch it to possibly improve your forex trading skillset. The concept of accumulation & distribution in forex trading is very important to understand the cycles that the market goes through and not remain trapped in sideways moving markets with tons of manipulations.
Education
by Transparent_Fx_Analysis
11
IMBALANCE ORDER- FILLED!Yesterday EU went Parabolic and didn't give anyone else a chance to get in at those prices. So this morning price is FILLING IMBALANCES. This chart illustrates this every day move in real time. The Market goes up. The Market goes down. The Market goes sideways. 3 moves. Price moves to fill 1. Imbalances 2. Liquidity Our job is to identify these moves and formulate strategies to help us Capitalize on the Money Moves aka Trends out of Consolidation and Ranging Zones. Never over leverage. Trust your trade set up. Have fun!
Education
by Master-Jedi-Trader
EURUSD : Scalping 30m chart strategy , simple!Think you are the master of discipline? Here's your potential way to make it big trading! Extremely straight forward is this RSI 14 , 30 minute chart strategy. When RSI goes to around 70+ it's time to short and aim for 10-15 pip When RSI goes to around 30 and below , it's time to long and aim for 10-15 pip. You can place your SL with 10 pip lower/higher and your TP with 15 pip higher/lower. Money management is critical and discipline is critical. You are not to aim for bigger profit, further SL, trade when RSI is not overbought/oversold and so on. Money management should be almost minimal lot size with every trade like this you take. Split it with 4-5 currencies and you have yourself a strategy to follow and test. Good luck! ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- If you found my idea useful, please like and follow! It would mean a lot to me. Thank you so much for listening and let me know what I can do to help , with questions/comments on the post. Obviously I am not a financial advisor and I encourage you to do your own research and be cautious when day trading! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Education
by Exactus
6
EURO under pressure - Key element to watchEURO under pressure - Key element to watch Context : Since 2000 EUR/USD is evolving between 0,82 and 1,60 providing two clear floor and cap level following the trend of global macro economy and the strategies deployed in the differents major central banks. The last past weeks following the decision to lower the Quantative Easing, the different actions took in the world in order to control the inflation and the good figure confirming the pursuit of the accumulation of the growth (even slower than last year) in the develop countries - The consensus for the Euro were quiet clear => main research highlighted 1,08/1,12 as strong support area and 1,18/1,23 as strong resistance for a further trading range without significant element for EUR or USD to take significant advantage regarding Growth, inflation and monetary policy. Today the situation is a bit different with less visibilty regarding the situation in Ukraine and even if we can exclude potential risk of global war, we can't ignored the risk about bilateral sanction between NATO countries and Russia. It means significant problem with energy/metals/commodities supply and price, political destabilisation, cyber attack, etc... This kind of modification take time to be absorbe and modified in order to set up a new strategy were russia will stay isolated from global economy for a while. The first economy to be impacted will be definitely the Europe in this crisis and the EURO since one week is in a free fall mode. So what to understand from EURUSD chart and what to focus on? : - Only a Weekly Chart Basis 1/ The previous upside trend ABC 0,82 to 1,60 has been follow by a consolidation in ABC towards 1,02 (or a construction of the long-term downside swing within a huge triangle) 2/ For now the ABC downside pattern within the bearish channel seems to be finished with the test of the 1,02 support - Then we are evolving within a range/triangle dynamic (Blue Frame) ---> That the graphical situation illustrating the context above. 3/ If the ABC downside pattern is not finished we gonna see a downside breakout from the triangle/range structure on going (inside the blue frame) to open further downside risk ----> Risk = Irregular running Range (Test of the 1,0075/0,9750) ----> Risk = poursuit of the bearish channel within a complex ABC X ABC pattern towards 0,8450 4/ RSI indicators is approaching support but didn't reached the previous oversold area where bullish reaction started = It is more likely to see more bearish momentum to be developed. 5/ Moving averages are now capping the market at 1,1530 Analysis Regarding the key elements and giving more weight to the Waves structures and the recurrence of Fibonacci levels, we can still giving more credit to see a development of a further trading range (blue frame) than a free fall of the Euro within the bearish channel towards 0,8450. Where it is more tricky to to have conviction is between a range in irregular with the test of parity before swinging up or triangle pattern with 1,0750 as key support before developing a new upside swing The key resistance is for now clearly set at 1,1530 and only a break out of this resitance can lower the downside risk significantly. Trading => Intraday/multi days traders will use 1,0750 as stop loss level to catch the dip and play agressive recovery with for now the Moving Average as Target to watch => Mid-term Institutional trader seems already in restructuration of the strategy by activating action to hedge the commodities upside risk and the pressure on Europe, so i would say that the hedge in place is between 1,0750/0,97 for the downside risk and 1,1530 (Neutrality area protection to adjust option)
Education
by JeanJean1983
How to determine the real value of the national currency?The National Regulator openly manipulates the exchange rate to the benefit of the economy, undervaluing it when there is a trade deficit, thereby helping exports, and overvaluing it when there is a surplus, so that citizens and businesses can buy more imported goods. The real exchange rate of a nation's currency is determined by its purchasing power abroad. In theory, it is calculated through a sample of identical goods. It is enough to estimate how much a certain conditional consumer basket costs in the home country, and compare the amount spent in another country. --- --- --- Why do we need to know the exchange rate regime and the real value of the national currencies? If a country has a fixed or transitional exchange rate, a currency trader can determine the entry points with a guaranteed profit. For example, the yuan is strictly "locked" in the corridor of 2% on the stock exchange, which allows you to enter at the maximum deviations, knowing exactly what intervention of the People's Bank will soon follow. The peculiarities of such trading are described in our article about USDCNH trading. Knowing the pricing mode, you can determine the entry strategy on the border of the basket value. Examples of trading such currency pairs using currency corridors are presented below. Trading on the Boundaries of the Nominal Value of National Currencies in Fixed and Transition Modes UAE Dirham (AED) The USDAED currency pair is the easiest to trade because of its strongest peg to the dollar - the national central bank kept the exchange rate at 3.6725 dirham even during the 2008 crisis. As a result the UAE national currency chart looks like a series of candles with long tails, above and below which pending orders should be placed. The figure shows a weekly candlestick chart, where you can see the possible deal levels at a glance, but there are some subtleties in this kind of trading. Firstly, there are only two brokers who are ready to provide access to the USDAED pair; secondly, they ask for a minimum deposit of $10,000; thirdly, the maximum leverage for this currency is 1 to 5. --- --- --- Models for determining the real exchange rate There is no single ideal model in the Forex market that works out 100% of the signals for the differences between the nominal value of the currency. Just like any indicators, the presented formulas need a historical check, they are suitable for certain currency pairs with different accuracy and work in combination with each other. This is why we will try to examine the basic models and theories of exchange rates. The purchasing power of the national currency against any other currency is determined in four ways, which we will talk about below. --- --- --- The law of one price - comparing the cost of the same good in different countries The current price of a commodity in national currency units = The exchange rate of the currency pair* The current price of a commodity in a foreign currency. --- --- --- Absolute Purchasing Power Parity In the formula of absolute parity instead of the price of one product, the average price level of the same basket of goods for different countries is used as expressed in national currencies or minimum subsistence values. For example, in Australia the living wage was 600 AUD for 2017, while in the European Union it is equal to: in Germany - 1240 euros, in France - 1254, in Italy - 855. The euro is a common currency for 26 states, so the three largest EU economies were chosen to use the average value of (1240+1255+855)/3= 1117 in the formula. If 1117 is the average EU living wage and 600 is Australia's living wage, then solving this expression, we get 1117/600 = 1.86. In 2017, the EURAUD exchange rate was 1.38. As you can see from the graph of the currency pair, the arbitrage correctly predicted the trend of strengthening of the euro. --- --- --- Relative trade parity. Economists in their calculations use economic indicators that show the relative change in consumer prices. The difference between the current indicator value from the economic calendar and previous data is substituted into the formula. For example, the U.S. Consumer Price Index was 119.4 in 2012 and rose to 121 by 2013. During this period, the EU CPI showed values of 118.3 and 120.1. The EURUSD exchange rate changed from 1.30 to 1.36. Using the formula, let's calculate the real euro exchange rate by taking the 2012 value of 1.30, successively multiplying it by a fraction of the relative values of the U.S. CPI 121/119.4 and the European CPI 120.1/118.3: 1,3* (121/119,4) *(120,1/118,3) = 1,3374. As you can see from the formula, the euro was undervalued, which led to the collapse in 2014, where parity was equalized due to monetary measures taken by the ECB and the Fed. The consumer price index is essentially an indicator of inflation, which is the primary focus of central banks when making decisions on the size of the discount rate. In economic statistics, it is rare to see this indicator published in relative units; everywhere there is a percentage change, which can also be used in another model. --- --- --- Relative Inflation Parity When calculating the real value of national money relative to the currency of another country, a slightly modified formula is used. The current rate of a currency pair can be represented as equal to (1 + annual inflation of one country/1 + annual inflation of another country) * the current rate of the pair at the Forex market. Let's calculate the EURUSD exchange rate in 2015. At the end of that period, U.S. inflation was 0.73%, while in the Eurozone it was 0.08%. The real EURUSD exchange rate at the end of 2015 = (1 +0.0083)/(1+0.073)*1.0565= 0.992. EURUSD quotes at the beginning of 2016 were undervalued, and the rate hike policy adopted by the Fed did not immediately save the situation - the market saw values close to 1.02 before the value of the European currency began to rise. This formula can be used to forecast the exchange rate by fitting it with the future inflation that central banks calculate in the reports they publish at every monthly meeting. --- --- --- Sincerely R. Linda!
Education
by RLinda
14
NEW TRADERS READ [+INFO]Hi traders. I want to help new traders in their journey, so I am sharing my 8 years experience, hoping helps someone in the road. We all get excited about the idea of making fast money, a faster financial vehicle, flipping small accounts into big profits, or making trading as our main income. But there are some edges I will talk about through this topic. Apprentice journey. Try to learn and connect with the graph. Besides all the concepts we learn in the road such as: Fundamental analysis News Indicators: macd, rsi, patterns, ema, bollinger bands, etc. Before Trading. There are some subjects that you MUST DOMINATE before your journey, otherwise you can find yourself in the "cycle of doom", but is a path most traders suffer. -Risk management: this is a must for the long road. Never risk what you can't afford. 1% risk to get 3% sounds nice, same for .5% risk to get 1.5%, if you want to risk more I really suggest you to make an altern account where you risk higher %, but is less money. Such as splitting 200usd from your main 5k account. -Everything is easier in %, and game mode. Trading is a probabilty game, and we are looking to have a high % ratio. -Find your strategy according to your personality and test it and STICK TO IT: what type of personality do you have? Are you patient? Can you hold negative balance on the run? The game name is: bring profit to your bank account and compound, thats it. Do not look for more, or compare profit with other traders. There are many ways and strategies in the market to make profit, but 90% of traders loose capital, or fail. Why do you think is that? -Always look for a 1:+1 ratio. Bigger ratios are found in bigger timeframes. How much pips is the bank willing to risk in orther to protect their capital? -Multitimeframe analysis. Bigger timeframes gives us direction while lower timeframes gives us gaps or edges for lower profit advantage. -Correlation in pairs. Most of traders say that you should only trade 1 pair at the beginning, but observing correlation and multitimeframe will give you a deeper understanding of whats going on in the market, and what is happening to certain pairs, and their precise direction. -Time is KEY. Participate only when there is liquidity in the market, New York and London sessions are the best in my opinion, but for some strategies, price retest or accumulation may happen in Asia or Sidney sessions so according to your strategy. 1 ACCOUNT : 1 STRATEGY. I remember that at the beginning I was learning so many strategies that I ended up mixing all of them, such as doing scalping trades and passing them to intra, or intra to swing. Every strategy has its own value of risk and lot size according to your account, so do not mix it up, otherwise you will fail and do not even know why you failed, feeling terrible for the loss. When Trading: Traders get paid while they wait for their setup. -Look for the gap that pays your 1:+1 ratio. In my case: i look for a 30pips:90pips gap in 2H timeframe, with 1D direction, i will give you an example: Took this trade on Euro, with a 30:90 pips on Thursday knowing that European session will have 2 continous off trading days, being a gap for my target. -Be aware of D, W, and M support and resistance. Price will reject off from it. -My strategy and setup gives me 3-6 opportunities during 5 trading days, and I Exit the game if I fail 2 consecutive trades and wait for the next week. This allows me to prevent overtrading, revenge trading, and protecting wrong trades (I used to open opposite trades to protect the capital or my wrong decission, I really do not recommend this unless you opened a trade by mistake or the worst scenario possible). After Trading: -I memo my trades and take note of why I took them. -I pay myself first. (30% to my bank account, 70% compounding) -I setup and look for next week possible gaps. I highly suggest you to get married with 1 strategy, and dominate it, have a deeper understanding, get profit, and then risk or try something else with a minimum part of that profit. Otherwise you will be jumping strategies like I used to do, and will not succeed in the long run. I am willing to connect and share with people. I hope that this subject helps anybody in his journey, have a good weekend traders, see you soon ! Cheers.
Education
by bryankim94
1
DXY - Elliott Wave Breakdown ✅Following on from our last post on DXY, we have moved up a considerable amount. In our last post we identified the higher timeframe impulsive move and waited for a catalyst, NFP, to move the market in our direction. See our previous post below: In Elliott Wave Theory, the impulsive wave can be broken down into the following 5 waves: Wave 1 - is made up of 5 subwaves (impulse) Wave 2 - Is a corrective wave made up of 3 waves (ABC correction) Wave 3 - is another impulse wave made up of 5 subwaves (impulse) Wave 4 - is a corrective wave made up of 3 waves (ABC correction) Wave 5 - Can be either an impulse or a correction - But its made up of 5 waves. In this scenario, the 5th wave is appearing to be an impulsive move. We have a channel which we will be using as a guide to help us identify when the 5th wave will finish. The way to use DXY is by doing the following: Bullish DXY = USD Strength. Bearish DXY = USD weakness 1. Analyse DXY for reversal zones and identify what the next move is 2. In our last post, we identified a reversal zone and we were waiting for NFP to be the catalyst to get the market moving (FEB 4th) 3. When DXY approaches the reversal zone, we go on to USD pairs and analyse them 4. Find a pair where you think USD will bounce/reject (depending on whether you're trading USD/XXX or XXX/USD) e.g. in the VIP, we correlated DXY with EURUSD. We identified that we were bullish DXY = Bearish EURUSD. We had a trade setup ready and we were waiting for confirmation. See below for the the VIP setup we had. Went into 10pip drawdown and hit TP of over 500pips = 1:50 RR. Hope this post helped a little! Goodluck and as always, trade safe!
TVC:DXYEducation
by WicktatorFX
5
Biggest Mover of March! (13.30%)Hey Traders! Just like that, another month has flown by, end of the quarter this time, so it's a little bit more special. What I want to do is run through and have a look at the biggest movers to the upside and to the downside of the month. One of them really stood out across all pairs an I think you guys already know which one I'm going to talk about, the Japanese yen. Looking at our biggest mover of the month, it was AUDJPY and unsurprisingly given how bullish we are looking at the Aussie dollar at the moment and how bearish we were looking at the Japanese yen. As the data unfolded throughout the month, which I talk about momentarily, I am not shocked about this big move but was no expecting a whopping 13.30%. Which was a fantastic move and good to see these types of moves in the Forex market when the volatility comes through. It's bad news obviously for the Japanese yen. Great news for the Aussie dollar. Be interesting to see how it reacts from here. The Japanese yen was very volatile this month. We have a lot of movement due to the unforeseen circumstances around the world. Looking at the Japanese yen fundamentally, it wasn't a great month. Their unemployment rate increase showing that less people had jobs. The producer price index actually increased too much greater than forecasted, which was good news for the Japanese yen, but that didn't last long with the BSI manufacturing index being a massive shock to the system. While the forecast for it was an 8.2 from its previous of 7.9 (forecasting growth). It came in at a whopping -7.6, which was very bad news. Once we adjusted to that bad news, we were met with the trade balance, which was extremely negative as you can see by the chart put below. You can see where the money started to leave the Japanese yen and flood over to the AUD. From there, the shorting of JPY just carried on and on. We had some news come out, like the Tertiary Industry Activity, it was predicted to be negative, it wasn't as negative as forecasted, but the end of the day it is still slower growth which pushed the price even further down. The unemployment rate increased right at the end of the month. As you can see that the price started to push back in and the news might start flipping to show more strength into the Japanese yen compared to what we had. We did see also the pound take a bit of a hit as well as the euro. The euro was a very interesting one as it's reacted with how the whole Russia and Ukraine, scenario is unfolding. Keep an eye on that as we proceed with peace talks, making progress supposedly. We might see a volatility coming through these currencies, but overall I have a bearish sentiment moving into April, not too sure how well that's going to hold up in the long run. And finally, looking at the Swiss franc paired against the US dollar, didn't really make much progress. It was very weak at the start of the month or maybe the US dollar was just wrong. But you can see it moves quite nicely, then we hit the mid point, it's just pulled back into almost where we've opened leaving a very tall top wick on USDCHF. It'll be interesting to see on where we progress from here. Only losing about 0.63% to the US dollar. Thanks so much for tuning in. I hope you enjoyed this. If there is any questions or anything you would like to ask, please leave a comment and I'll get back to you as soon as possible. Cheers guys. Happy trading.
Education
by the5erstrading
ICT Market Maker Sell ModelFirst you must have a clean consolidation which you are anticipating that it will be taken once market come up. Secondly you must have an old low Significant OB which market is chasing it(magnetic) and you know that after market taken out that old low then it will reverse quickly to come up to attack your consolidation. And finally you will investigate if you have any bearish SMT divergence that will give you a confidence that market will chase that old low
Education
by huntingtheflow
4
What is going on in the markets? Aftermaths of Russian invasionRight after Russia declared war and started its military operations in Ukraine, the markets started going crazy. Investors started moving to "safe heaven" trades and sticking with "risk-off" securities. GOLD (XAU/USD) is everyone's favourite to trade for the moment, as the price plummeted straight after the escalation of the war. It has experienced a growth of +4.5% so far, and it has more upside potential. EUR/USD, having a strong negative correlation with GOLD, has endured a 200 pip drop so far, constituting a 1.8% dip. AUD/USD, GBP/USD and other highly correlated USD pairs have deteriorated as well. BITCOIN, often claimed as "digital Gold", is still continuing its downside movements, experiencing a 12.6% drop in 24 hours. Sticking to the safe heavens and riding the trend would be the best possibility right now. Also, remember to stay risk tolerant and cold-blooded, as the markets could get really volatile from time to time, taking into account the current situation.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Investroy
9
My Trading Strategy in 4 simple steps.Today I will explain step by step the process I use to develop setups. This is how my strategy works. And this can be applied to any asset and using any technical tools. This is as close as I can get to using an empiric approach to define my trading opportunities. Let's start. My trading strategy is composed of 4 steps: 1) Whats the context of the price? Here, I want to understand all the characteristics of the current situation I'm observing. Mainly I will try to define this in the Daily chart. Examples: * Are we making a new ATH? * Are we inside a 300 days correction? * Is the price above or below a Daily trendline? * Are we inside a small correction or a 50%+ decline? 2) Now that I understand my context. Can I look for similar situations in the historical data of this asset? I only work with assets with enough historical data to conduct this type of analysis. If I'm able to find at least 2 previous situations with similar characteristics to what I'm looking for, I proceed with the next step. Here I use the Weekly and logarithmic chart to identify these situations. 3) Do I see a consistent pattern that I can use to trade in those similar situations in the past? Here I will use lower timeframes like the 4HS chart, and I will look into more details in those similar situations. I will try to find something objective, like "The first retest after the breakout of the most external line of the corrections. If I see consistent behavior and a good risk to reward ratio, I will proceed with the final element of my strategy. 4)Define the pattern I'm waiting for and the execution process in advance. At this stage, I want to say, "I'm waiting for this," and this is how I will trade it. This includes: *Entry level *Stop level *Break-even level *Take profit level. *Risk. And this is it. At this stage, my setup can be executed or canceled depending on the price behavior, but in a nutshell, this is the system I have been using for the last 3 years, and I can say that this has, on average, a win rate of 50% and an average risk to reward ratio of 2. I hope this information was useful. Feel free to share your view in the comments or any doubt you may have. Thanks.
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BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by ThinkingAntsOk
103