2019 YTD feedbackHello, I am going to look at my history that is on trading view for the past 4 months, and estimate what is possible and what is not (last third of the post is mainly just me brainstorming and rambling), and I am making this public, some people might be curious and get the inspiration to do the same.
Risk Reward is usually 1.5
Bitcoin not entered yet, ALL OF MY 3 STRATEGIES apply. RR ~1.5+
A bunch of market analysis and posting about Tether (Bitcoin related).
S&P short, still same trade I baghold for a while, moved my SL up because I entered too early & was too tight anyway.
EURJPY sold at the very top at resistance with EURUSD downtrend channel, RR 1.75. Easy WIN.
A bunch of education & generic posts & potential future trades. Updates about Bitcoin short.
Bitcoin long the bull trap expected a Tether pump. Easy win but did not take the trade because was already short and funding decimated what little I had on mex so was not able to flip sides (fast enough).
Bitcoin short TL with a reward to risk of 4. Probably reks me but RR is so big. LOSE.
AUDJPY on H1 24 March buy support. WIN.
Bitcoin buy pullback in uptrend, NO FILL.
GBPUSD in an uptrend channel, buy at support. WIN.
GBPJPY buy at support. Entered too early, selling slowed then it bounced on my SL. A mistake. LOSE.
USDCHF same mistake. Bought the falling knife AND entered early and it fell much lower. LOSE.
CAC40 best trade in my life I still have happy dreams about it. RR 1.5 to 2 as always. WIN.
AUDUSD sell at resistance. NO FILL.
EURUSD sold, it reversed at my SL. Didn't have much to work with, what was my count? Probably should not have touched it and why did I post this? LOSE.
Some stock & bitcoin posts but not trade ideas, just generic/building abias.
USDNOK buy support. LOSE.
USDTRY. Did not want to get involved with something I did not fully understand yet. Missed a win.
AUDCAD short it to the ground! Easiest WIN in my life ggeznobs.
More generic bla bla.
Soybean futures did not want to get involved + high spreads + no strategy for this. Called the top to the day and missed a win.
EURSEK sold the very top, get on my level ggez. WIN.
Gold short resistance & TL. Works most of the time. Easy WIN.
Repeating myself about Bitcoin like I'm 70 years old. Was just bored tbh. And paid shills harassing me telling me to be silent makes me want to post more. I do not cooperate with terrorists.
Dow Jones short. Barely fits my rules. LOSE.
AUDUSD buy. Nothing special about it. Bottomed after I got stopped damn. LOSE.
Copper sell at resistance the mini double top. RR of 3 but I exagerated here and got out at 2. WIN.
8 WINS.
7 LOSE.
And a few miss out.
H1: (always targets > half an ATR) 4 wins (EURJPY AUDJPY GBPUSD AUDCAD) 5 losses (GBPJPY USDCHF EURUSD USDNOK AUDUSD).
H4: 4 wins (CAC40 EURSEK GOLD COPPER) 2 losses (BTC DJI)
I would need much more stats. I feel H1 is not that bad if I am picky. 45% winrate would be barely enough to make it especially I didn't really count fees. Catching falling knives was just bad.
I need more to draw conclusions.
With stats like this if they were consistently like this... (that's a big if)
Let's assume SPX will be a loser, and I can get 50% winrate.
3 trades a week
6 months 76 trades
38 wins 38 lose
Make 3% lose 2%
(1.03^36) * (0.98^36) = 1.4
Up 40% in 6 months.
Up 100% in 1 year, rounded up. Double up.
Up 300% in 2 years. Money doubled twice.
Up 3,200 % in 5 years.
Up 100,000% in 10 years compounding is overpowered (equal to buying Bitcoin at $5000 and selling at 5 million in 10 years ye that's going to happen)
These losses on Bitcoin are really unforgivable and I should rethink my strategy entirely.
I really wish crypto bulls could teach me. They'll be billionaires in a few years right? Let's see where I am and where they are in 1, 2, 5, and 10 years :)
What if, pure speculation, I was to only "swing trade" would have 4 trades a month, 66% winrate, risk 2 to make 3?
After 1 year... 16 losers 32 winners.
(1.03^32) * (0.98^16) = 1.86, nearly same result. But with 4 a month.
Is 66% winrate possible with superior mental powas? With such a winrate RoR is non existant, what about 36 trades a year (3 a month) & risk 4% to make 6%.
(1.06^24)*(0.96^12) = 2.48. +148%. Oh my. 880,000% after 10 years.
Winrate probably smaller but looking at lots of market its probably possible to cumulate positions, like 3 uncorrelated at any given time is possible?
I think 50% to 300% a year is possible depending on luck and risk and how much time is spent in front of the screen looking for opportunities (and filtering the mediocre ones).
I think it's possible to have both a high winrate and reward:risk (like 60% and 2), but then you get those not very often.
Anyway, my 2019 posts represent my trading results are the same more or less. 2019 going well.
Need to do this every quarter. Won't post next one publicly.
I have 3 strategies, 1 is a pullback join the trend strategy 1 is a momentum countertrend strategy and 1 is a no trend strategy. All focus on wave (C).
+ I cannot use more strategy it becomes too much it's just not possible. I must stick to this theme I understand and know how to trade. On paper I could do more but pratically there is no way. Maybe with 5 more years experience...
+ I don't manage to find more opportunities than a few, especially uncorrelated.
+ Zooming in more takes alot of time and they say it's easier to predict the movements on the short term, but below half an ATR... it just gets noisy and messy.
+ I am not able to improve the winrate and risk reward. Might be able to avoid a few bad trades & improve RR a bit. Or not. Probably not.
All that is left... being patient... and if I want more, raising risk.
Literally impossible to do more to me. Keep my eyes open for the rare opportunity.
Next bubble. Let's go. Or building a time machine.
Saving up, like eating for 15 euros a day rather than 25 saves 300 a month, putting 500 aside every month, helps as much as making big returns and accelerates growth so much.
I want to check a last one. Assuming 1.5 RR, 50% winrate. 3 trades a week so 156 in a year. With an expendable amount on a negative balance protection broker. Risk 10% a trade (actually possible to risk that much but not more leverage is not unlimited 20*0.5% on Forex = 10%)
Risking 10% a trade the risk of ruin (85% loss) is 0.8%.
(1.15^78) * (0.9^78) = 14,6. Going to beat the system with negative balance protection.
50% winrate 3 trades a week 1.5 RR is this unrealistic? During the crypto bubble peak/euphoria anyone could do this & better, easy. But that's over.
What returns do people in the 9% typically make? I think 50% winrate 1.5 RR is typical.
With absolute max 0 care risk the returns are 1500%.
Also we know from analysis of hundreds of thousands of accounts that active day traders taking plenty of trades are almost all losing, 99% are, and the ones that win barely make anything. Going against supercomputers and math phd at renaissance with their little $1000 PC haha who would have thought? So that's useless. It does not make more. Maybe with the DAX & DJI (very low spreads) it is possible to squeeze just a little bit more.
Realistically the most people make on myfxbook etc are 200% a year. Even in competitions with their own real money in 3 months the winners are making 80-200% and they are risking more than usual to win right?
Once we get experienced & know how to understand the price action & willing to spend the time analysing markets etc I guess it is capped. Cannot improve more, just not possible the possibilities are not there.
If I sell signals on a copy trading broker by the time I even get people to follow I lose my edge and it's all over. Not good in the long term.
Damn I wish I was a VIP signals trading educator making 10,000% a quarter :/
