forexTrdr Sunday Setups: USDJPY WHERE THEM BULLS AT??Hi all and welcome to our Sunday Setups a new technical analysis piece where we are looking to showcase our work and highlight our 20 years of professional trading experience at the worlds best Investment Banks.
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Where those bulls at on USDJPY? Thursdays failure to breach or even reach the 5th of Marchs high at point B (112.13) suggests Bullishness is fading and we are seeing the start of a descending triangle. Add in a strong technical that we are not going to discuss here we are looking for a test of the green support line from January lows and potential move down to the lower purple resistance level around 110.3. Key here is a breach and hold below the Jan support level. If we bounce and are subsequently able to breach 112.13 then bullish mode re-engages and we test the .786 fibonacci level from October high (112.3 area blue line).
Week Ahead
Sunday 17th March:
Japanese import/export and trade balance data - very low impact
Monday 18th March:
Japanese industrial production data - medium impact
Tuesday 19th March:
BoJ policy meetings - potential for high impact
US Factory Orders & Durable goods - low impact
Wednesday 20th March:
Fed Meeting - potential for high impact
Thursday 21st March:
Japanese Inflation data - medium impact
Friday 22nd March:
Japanese PMI - medium impact
Trend :
Ascending trend line supporting market since Jan low.
Month to date showing lower highs
Tech levels:
Major keys to upside:
112.13 point B and 5th of March high that failed to breach last week
112.35 area- Fibonacci support from October high
Major keys to downside:
111.24 area January support line
110.88 point C on chart
Forextrdr
forexTrdr Sunday Setups: EURUSD ALL EYES ON THE PRIZE.. 100DMAHi all and welcome to our Sunday Setups a new technical analysis piece where we are looking to showcase our work and highlight our 20 years of professional trading experience at the worlds best Investment Banks.
Our aim is to keep analysis simple so that anyone can follow and learn from our work and hopefully our past performance highlights why we are different.
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First on the agenda is EURUSD- as per chart we have a descending trendline dating back to September, what we are looking for here is a potential retest of the 100 day moving average (1.1367) before a pull back to year to date lows and a move to 1.1130 area over the next few weeks. Risk is we have a break out to the upside and escape out of the descending trendline towards 1.142 area. Countering that however, from tech perspective, the pair is at the top of the overbought range on RSI (bottom chart).
From fundamental side European growth continues to come in at the lower end of recent performance and the ECB has announced further stimulus through the extension of TLTRO- a form of cheap funding to the banking sector. US continues to storm ahead on growth and looks to have bottomed out in January- last weeks NFP looks nothing more than a fluke number which occurs from time to time. This week we have Fed meeting on Wednesday where we expect to hear comments around growth having bottomed out at start of year and a pickup in economic activity in line with what we are seeing in other forward looking indicators and Chinese stimulus.
Week Ahead
Tuesday 19th March:
German ZEW Survey - very low impact
US Factory Orders & Durable goods - low impact
Wednesday 20th March:
Fed Meeting - potential for high impact
Thursday 21st March:
European consumer confidence - low impact
Trend :
Descending trendline since the high on 24th September
Series of lower highs and lower lows since start of 2019
Tech levels:
Major keys to upside:
1.1367 the 100 day moving average and around the top of the descending trendline from September
1.1418 February high
Major keys to downside:
1.1290 January low
1.1235 February low
1.1187, 61.8% retracement of 2017 low to 2018 high
1.1177, YTD low