XBT Dancing the Contango and Farewell to XBTU19 data?This idea is to expand on my recent observations while trading Basis (spread) of futures contracts for XBT, and how recently Contango and Backwardation have been a good timing indicator for XBTUSD. For more detailed explanation, please check out my indicator script the XBT Contango Calculator in related link.
Typically I have noticed that Futures premium/discount primarily flow along with price movements. For example, when price goes up, premium goes up and vis-versa.
However, what i found most interesting over the last few weeks is there was a divergence in XBTUSD price and XBTZ19 futures premium (blue line), which i noticed for the first time. Additionally, this happened right before the BREAK See below
A primary objective of this post, is to see if publishing this idea in Tradingview will keep the XBTU19 data (orange line) plotted by the XBT Contango Calculator. I have found that charts of expired Bitmex Futures are not available on Tradingview after expiration. Studying XBTU19 September futures has been very useful for trading over the last few months and hope this post will stand as a record on how Contango and Backwardation in XBTU19 contact affected price action (assuming data doesn't disappear after 9/27). If anyone knows a way to plot historical Bitmex data, please help me out. I believe it can be pulled via API from the following link, but I am not able to figure it out.
www.bitmex.com
THE FOLLOWING ARE TWO REASONS WHY I WANT TO STUDY HISTORICAL DATA FROM PREVIOUS BITMEX FUTURE CURVES. I think both of these scenarios could represent the two directions we have at the current moment. As you will see, if past futures curve data was available from these time periods, it could be helpful in deciding which direction to trade.
EXHIBIT A - Mid November 2018, price drop after consolidation triangle
EXHIBIT B - Mid July 2017, price pullback and continuation after consolidation triangle
Let me know your thoughts?
