The Hardest Part of Trading (Not what you Think)Seeking More information - When first introduced to markets, every beginner immediately thinks he must learn the rules of the market in order to succeed. He initially believes there is a "holy grail" a system, a leader, or a mathematical equation like Fibonacci levels. He believes these will protect him in the market, and will lead him to a profit once he understands them.
The problem is, there are no set rules which work consistently in the market. If there were, the institutions and everyone else would simply use them. What would happen then? Well, there would be no one or institution to take the opposite trade, and the market would cease to exist altogether.
And so the new trader changes from one system to another, from one guru to another, and constantly thinks he must learn more information in order to succeed. What he believes to be preventing his success is a lack of knowledge, a lack of information. But you see, the more information you have does not necessarily lead to better decisions. There is a lot of evidence to support the contrary, and suggests that too many choices actually impair decision making skills.
On top of this, most of the information in the trading world is quite simply wrong. There are 10 x more scam artists who claim to "know" and will take your money to teach you how to trade than there are profitable traders. These people do not understand markets them selves, and cannot make money in the market, so instead they prey on new market entrants. This is the primary reason I started my trading website; to provide high value information at a low cost. And to give those who are serious about trading an actual chance to make it in the markets.
Dealing with Uncertainty - The reason most traders seek new information is because they are afraid of uncertainty and want certainty. They seek something to protect them in the market. Something to protect them from themselves. A system that will guarantee a profit. But there is no such thing. Markets constantly change and evolve through the market cycle. And there is no system that works across all three parts of the market cycle. The sooner you realize this, the closer you will be to making a profit.
It is very hard to learn how to deal with uncertainty. But you do it every day. When you wake up in the morning are you certain you will live through the end of the day? No, and you can never be completely certain of this. Certainty is an illusion. There is no certainty in this life. The only certainty is... uncertainty!
Patience and Discipline (Ability to Do Nothing) - Every profitable trader uses these two terms (patience and discipline) when asked how they are profitable. When a beginner hears this, he rarely understands what this means. Discipline means doing something even when you dont want to do it, or doing something you dont want to do. Patience means waiting for your turn, or waiting for something to happen.
In other words, when the time is not right you must do nothing. This stokes a fear in most people, especially in today's give me distractions, social media world. They say "Well what am i supposed to do if i am doing nothing?" Doing nothing seems contrary to getting what you want, getting somewhere. In and outside of the trading world everyone believes in order to be a "trader" you must trade - constantly. This is why most lose money. Because they do not understand that there is a time for doing nothing. And that time is most of the time!
See more on understanding markets (Price Action Trading) and yourself (Trading Psychology) at my website below.
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Howtowin
100 PUBLISHED TRADES - StatisticsToday I published my 100th trade idea. (this excludes educational idea’s)
Here are the quick Stats:
WINS : 49
Losses: 14
Flat trades: 8
Cancelled Trades: 29
PIPS Won: 2,560
Pips lost: 515
A 3.5 to 1 win to loss ratio
A 4.97 to 1 win to loss Pip ratio
*Cancelled Trades: these are trades that were cancelled prior to entry. It is important to understand that I only want High probability trades with good to Great RRR. If market conditions change after the idea has been posted but prior to being triggered, and it no longer meets that criteria, then I cancel the trade. I believe sitting on the sideline IS a position. Some of these trades would have lost, some would have won but I rather just not be in the market.
I would appreciate if you let me know what you think and a like.
Thanks
Allen
Trading To Win "Those who lose - trade not to lose. Those who are successful - trade to Win."
Losing Vs Winning
Most traders are more focused on not losing than they are on winning. Do you understand what this means? This means you are acting not in your best interest, but against your self. By focusing on how much you can or might lose, or on not losing, you increase the likelihood of making mistakes which ultimately lead to a losing traders equation, and a negative equity curve.
Profitable traders do not care about losing. They understand it is part of winning. They focus on winning. What is the best move in this moment? Should I get out or continue to hold based on what the market is telling me? Winning traders accept the risk totally and completely; before getting into the trade. In other words, they have already lost what is on the line. Therefore they act in their own best interest, not based on their thoughts about what they could lose, but based on what the market is telling them to do in this moment.
Other than this psychological difference, here are a few other key components on How to Trade To Win.
Defined Edge - Every trader who is making money in the market has some form of edge which he employs. Even if his edge is purely intuitive. This is extreme and rare however, and most traders have clearly defined their edge and will only trade that edge. This removes randomness. Many beginners think they are going to study the market and be able to trade the market no matter what it is doing (trade intuitively). This is simply not the case for most. The purpose of studying the market is to identify opportunities in form of an edge. An edge is a setup or context which repeats itself over time. It might occur once a day, once a week, or once a month. It does not matter. All that matters is that you only trade your clearly defined edge, and leave the randomness behind.
For more information, you can read about the edge I use in every market I trade. We also describe how you can develop your own edge, and trade it in any market.
Stop Doing, Relax Efforts - If you are losing in the market, chances are you are doing too much. Many beginners, and even experienced traders think they must be trading in order to be a successful trader. This leads to random trading, over trading, and mistakes which compound themselves. You end up digging a hole, and instead of looking for a way out, you look for a different shovel.
The harder you try to make a profit, the more you do, the more actions you make, and the more you lose. The market rewards those who are observant, disciplined, and most importantly patient. The market takes from those who try too hard, and do too much. If you dont believe me, try as hard as you can to make money, and see how you do!
By relaxing your efforts, you relax your mind. In turn relax your actions and decision making. You do not have to trade every day to be a profitable trader. It sounds paradoxical doesn't it? How can I make money trading if I dont trade? By only trading when it is appropriate like when your edge is present, you better your odds of success.
Profitable trading does not come from trading constantly. Profitable trading comes from the act of non-doing, and out of a state of emptiness. Profitable trading is effortless, it comes out of waiting for just the right moment before taking action. And then waiting some more while the market proves you right or wrong. Profitable trading is not forced; it just happens.
Active VS Passive Trading -
This is very similar to the previous topic. Active trading is a trader who is constantly in the market, trading whatever he see's or feels right. This trader is often wrong, and when he is right he makes the mistake of exiting too early due to fear. This leads to a negative traders equation as he continues to struggle to do the right thing. An Active Trader mentality is one which does not believe in "non-doing." He believes he must, and can, do something. He is afraid of missing out and is often swayed by thoughts and emotions. So he continues trading never looking back, and at the end of the month cannot figure out why his account is in the red.
A Passive Trader is the opposite. He passes on more trades than he takes. He does not care about what he misses out on. He only cares about what he takes and the actions he makes in the market. He does not force trades, he just watches the market until he knows what to do. Or he waits and waits until his edge finally sets up. He is passive in his efforts, rather than active. He does not care if he doesn't trade today, this week, or even this month. Trading is not what is important to him; winning is. He knows that profits come from sitting, waiting. Because he is willing to wait, he is peaceful. And profits continue to come into his account, effortlessly.
For more information on developing this type of mentality, see below. We also detail how to understand markets through price action, how to create, define, and employ an edge, and how to develop your traders mentality to succeed in markets.
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Day Trading - Only Strong Trend Days (Can also be used on HTF)Day Trading - Only Strong Trend Days (Can also be used on HTF)
There are generally only 2-5 strong trend days a month. The majority of trading days are some form of trading range days, either within a range or a weak channel which reverses and forms a trading range. On strong trend days the market offers what most traders want - a high probability of a large reward, with a tolerable risk. Usually the risk feels greater (and often is) on a strong trend day because there is a sense of urgency, and the bars are often bigger than normal.
On trading range days the bars tend to be smaller, offering what appears to be a lower reward, but there are many more failures and reversals. This makes it very difficult to identify a good setup, and even when there is one the market does not make it very far before there is an opposite reversal. This lures unsuspecting traders in, who continue fighting the market taking every trade or only the losers. This type of market is like a boa constrictor. The more you fight, the more you struggle, the tighter its grip and the harder it is to overcome the draw downs and emotional fatigue.
Because these types of days are hard to trade and do not offer what I want (a good chance at a large reward), I choose to sit these days out. Instead, I wait for a strong trend day, and then continue to wait some more for a pullback and my edge. Does this mean I miss out on some good moves? Sure. But I do not care. I trade to win, not to trade for fun. It does not matter what I miss, it only matters what I take and the actions I make in the market.
So how does a trader know if the day is a trading range day or likely to become a strong trend day and should be traded? In order to help guide you, here are some common characteristics of a trend day.
"......"
After the above has been identified - it is still better to wait for a pullback and an edge like a "......."
This increases the likelihood of a good trade with a strong traders equation. It also helps decrease stress of prices going against the position as it often does when you just enter at the market or without an edge. Of course, waiting is not easy. Just like Tom Petty said "Waiting is the hardest part!"
Does this mean you are less likely to lose? Usually, but not always. Even with trend trades fail, although less often. It is absolutely possible to lose money selling in a bear trend or vice versa. The key is to continue onward, and enter the next with trend trade if there is one. If not, or it also fails, prices are more than likely in a trading range and you just haven't yet realized it. If this is the case, it is often better to stop trading and wait for a strong trend day, rather than continuing to fight the market when it is not offering what you expected.
**These ideas and strategies can also be applied to higher time frames and long term investing.
"..." = withheld material from original post (members only material).
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Day Trading Trend or Trading Range? Can be applied to investingIn the previous article we discussed only trading on strong trend days or strong markets. We also identified what increases the likelihood of a day (or market) becoming a strong trend. As said before, there are only a handful of strong days a month (or only a few strong markets at any given time). Because of this, it is just as important to identify and understand when a market is likely not a trend and more likely a trading range.
Within the first hour or two of the open (when day trading), it is often obvious if the day will likely become a trend day or a trading range. Once the market has been identified as likely a trading range, it is unlikely to become a trend day as the market tends to continue what it has been doing. In this case it is more likely to continue to have heavy two sided trading and less likely to convert into a strong and healthy trend.
But wait - most channels are some form of trading range right? Yes. This is a form of slanted trading range, or a trending trading range. This is where the market is technically in a trend but it is very weak and likely to reverse at any time. In fact, by the close it will likely reverse and the trend is unlikely to remain intact.
Characteristics of a Trading Range Day
"............"
So if most days are not trend days and are instead some sort of trading range, cant a day trader use this information to his advantage? Of course, if it aligns with your trading style or method. But you must understand that you are not likely to win on many trades, or win a large reward. Instead most trades even strong ones, only go for 1X the risk. On top of that there are many trades to take, most of which fail. This makes it difficult to remain focused and continue trading without emotions and without missing the trades you need to win to recover losses.
What about only taking strong trades ".......?" That is a reasonable thing to do, but the probability is still often lower and the reward is as well. And on these days most stop order entries fail, resulting in repeated failures. This is a "............." If not, you will likely get stopped out just before prices go your direction! Or the market will only go in your favor temporarily before stopping you out.
This makes trading difficult for beginners and even for those with experience. However most do not realize they should simply remove themselves from the market during these times. Instead they continue to trade as they think they should, and continue to grow losses, making it harder to recover even on a good trading day.
"I do not like to trade when the market is likely to reverse at any time. I only like to trade when the market is not likely to reverse at all." - Josh Ridenour
**These ideas and strategies can also be applied to higher time frames and even long term investing.
"..." = withheld material from original post (members only material).
If you found this helpful please like! Feel free to comment or ask questions
Day Trading Trend or Trading Range? Can be applied to investingIn the previous article we discussed only trading on strong trend days or strong markets. We also identified what increases the likelihood of a day (or market) becoming a strong trend. As said before, there are only a handful of strong days a month (or only a few strong markets at any given time). Because of this, it is just as important to identify and understand when a market is likely not a trend and more likely a trading range.
Within the first hour or two of the open (when day trading), it is often obvious if the day will likely become a trend day or a trading range. Once the market has been identified as likely a trading range, it is unlikely to become a trend day as the market tends to continue what it has been doing. In this case it is more likely to continue to have heavy two sided trading and less likely to convert into a strong and healthy trend.
But wait - most channels are some form of trading range right? Yes. This is a form of slanted trading range, or a trending trading range. This is where the market is technically in a trend but it is very weak and likely to reverse at any time. In fact, by the close it will likely reverse and the trend is unlikely to remain intact.
Characteristics of a Trading Range Day
"............"
So if most days are not trend days and are instead some sort of trading range, cant a day trader use this information to his advantage? Of course, if it aligns with your trading style or method. But you must understand that you are not likely to win on many trades, or win a large reward. Instead most trades even strong ones, only go for 1X the risk. On top of that there are many trades to take, most of which fail. This makes it difficult to remain focused and continue trading without emotions and without missing the trades you need to win to recover losses.
What about only taking strong trades like ".......?" That is a reasonable thing to do, but the probability is still often lower and the reward is as well. And on these days most stop order entries fail, resulting in repeated failures. This is a "............." If not, you will likely get stopped out just before prices go your direction! Or the market will only go in your favor temporarily before stopping you out.
This makes trading difficult for beginners and even for those with experience. However most do not realize they should simply remove themselves from the market during these times. Instead they continue to trade as they think they should, and continue to grow losses, making it harder to recover even on a good trading day.
"I do not like to trade when the market is likely to reverse at any time. I only like to trade when the market is not likely to reverse at all." - Josh Ridenour
**These ideas and strategies can also be applied to higher time frames and even long term investing.
"..." = withheld material from original post (members only material).
If you found this helpful please like! Feel free to comment or ask questions
How To be a Successful Forex trader Segement 2Have a Trade Plan
Although most traders figure out pretty early on that they need a trade plan. They don't always know how to formulate it or what should go into it. Although a Trade plan can be go very much in depth, I will discuss what, imho, are the most critical components:
First and foremost, it must fit YOU!! Any trade plan must fit how YOU want to trade as well as the time you have available to trade. when I first started trading, I wanted to be a scalper. However I had a day job which prevented me from trading the London and US sessions, so I had to trade the Asian Session, which is, for me anyway, not very conducive to scalping. So I developed a methodology that would trigger during the Asian session and usually hit it's profit target (or stop loss) during the London session. It was for the most part a set and forget strategy that I was comfortable with. I would urge any trader to find a methodology that they are comfortable and confident with and go from there.
Second, A trade plan must give you exit targets, both good (Profit target) and bad (stop loss). I put this ahead of Entries because, I believe it is more important to understand both the risk and reward of a trade BEFORE you are in it.
Third, Entry conditions, what ever your strategy is, you want to have a consistent way to trigger your trade.
Fourth, the trade plan has to be repeatable. When you get to point where your trading is boring, that's is when you will the most productive. For example, in the chart above I have my "Type 1" trade, which I absolutely love and that is what I look for. If you look at my past posts, you will see that there are a lot of them and they are, after awhile, boring except that they generate MONEY!!!
Fifth: Your trade plan should include a daily review. what worked?, what didn't? how can you improve? the illustration above is how I document my trades on a daily basis.
I hope this post is helpful.
In the next segment I will address back testing
Allen
How To: Profit with CCI Colored Candles / Bars w/ Histogram You have SPY Trending down today CCI and Candles are red pink and purple buy the 1st or 2nd pullback where CCI goes near ZERO line on CCI
I use 5min charts minium Indicator link:
Color of your candles matches your CCI with Histogram indicator and trend line . CCI EMA or SMA based option, traditional or modern formula calculation options ect. Can change Length, source, Trigger Lines, colors of candles and histogram and more
The CCI compares the current price to an average price over a period of time. The indicator fluctuates above or below zero, moving into positive or negative territory. While most values, approximately 75%, will fall between -100 and +100, about 25% of the values will fall outside this range, indicating a lot of weakness or strength in the price movement.
A basic CCI strategy is used to track the CCI for movement above +100, which generates buy signals, and movements below -100, which generates sell or short trade signals. Investors may only wish to take the buy signals, exit when the sell signals occur, and then re-invest when the buy signal occurs again.
The CCI compares the current price to an average price over a period of time. The indicator fluctuates above or below zero, moving into positive or negative territory. While most values, approximately 75%, will fall between -100 and +100, about 25% of the values will fall outside this range, indicating a lot of weakness or strength in the price movement.
When the CCI is above +100, this means the price is well above the average price as measured by the indicator. When the indicator is below -100, the price is well below the average price.
1 CCI strategy is used to track the CCI for movement above +100, which generates buy signals, and movements below -100, which generates sell or short trade signals. Investors may only wish to take the buy signals, exit when the sell signals occur, and then re-invest when the buy signal occurs again.
Long-term chart is used to establish the dominant trend, short-term chart establishing pullbacks and entry points into that trend. A multiple timeframe strategy is commonly used by more active traders and can even be used for day trading, as the "long term" and "short term" is relative to how long a trader wants their positions to last.
When the CCI moves above +100 on your longer-term chart, this indicates an upward trend, and you only watch for buy signals on the shorter-term chart. The trend is considered up until the longer-term CCI dips below -100.
When using a daily chart as the shorter timeframe, traders often buy when the CCI dips below -100 and then rallies back above -100. It would then be prudent to exit the trade once the CCI moves above +100 and then drops back below +100. Alternatively, if the trend on the longer-term CCI turns down, that indicates a sell signal to exit all long positions.
When the CCI is below -100 on the longer-term chart, only take short sale signals on the shorter-term chart. The downtrend is in effect until the longer-term CCI rallies above +100. The chart indicates that you should take a short trade when the CCI rallies above +100 and then drops back below +100 on the shorter-term chart. Traders would then exit the short trade once the CCI moves below -100 and then rallies back above -100. Alternatively, if the trend on the longer-term CCI turns up, exit all short positions.
Make the strategy more stringent by only taking long positions on the shorter time frame when the longer-term CCI is above +100. This will reduce the number of signals, but will ensure the overall trend is very strong.
Entry and exit rules on the shorter timeframe can also be adjusted. if the longer-term trend is up, you may allow the CCI on the shorter-term chart to dip below -100 and then rally back above zero (instead of -100) before buying. This will likely result in a paying a higher price, but offers more assurance that th
What makes a divergence.To find a divergence you have to take in account for the movement at each point in time. For example, make sure your divergences include a contiguous downtrend or uptrend or else they are invalid. Furthermore, don't build opinions over a single timeframe or indicator: always be sure to use multiple. Another good tactic is to discuss with people who might have separate--but valuable--viewpoints.