How will Stocks React to Inflation?The stock market's reaction to an inflation trend always involves a delay.
Based on studies of the inflation trend, this delay is approximately 6 months. How about the inflation data month by month?
Micro E-Mini Nasdaq
Ticker: MNQ
Minimum fluctuation:
0.25 index points = $0.50
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Inflation
Understanding Interest-rates & InflationHey Traders
So, I have been asked by many of my clients to explain the relationship between interest-rates and inflation and how to translate that information into their analysis.
For this reason I put this little mini lesson together to explain:
- The core role of the central bank
- Reason and objectives for interest-rates and inflation
- How you can use this information to enhance your analysis
- How to take advantage of this info when taking, managing or closing your trades.
PS. if you would like me to do more of these types of videos be sure to leave a comment in the comment section.
How to Adjust Your Stock Chart for Inflation, Dividends, and TaxUsing a pretty simple formula involving CPI , we can adjust the stock chart to show real returns instead of nominal returns. Real returns represent a more accurate picture of the return of the stock over time. In addition, we can easily adjust returns for dividends and estimated taxes.
Inflation & Interest Rate Series – Below 5.3% is Crucial for CPIContent:
• Why CPI must be below 5.3%?
• Can we invest or trade or hedge into inflation?
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
Stay tuned for our next episode in this series, we will discuss more on the insight of inflation and rising interest rates. More importantly, how to use this knowledge, turning it to our advantage in these challenging times for all of us.
Micro 5-Year Yield Futures
1/10 of 1bp = US$1 or
0.001% = US$1
3.000% to 3.050% = US$50
3.000% to 4.000% = US$1,000
See below ideas on the previous videos for this series.
Why Rice Prices Determine the Direction of Interest Rates?Recently, I received questions asking my opinion on their borrowing cost, if they should go for fixed or float rates. We somehow know there is inflation, but not exactly sure how long it will last and how bad it will get. Because higher inflation leads to higher interest rates.
While I cannot advise them as I do not have a banking license to do so. However, I can point them to the commodity markets, I hope by doing so, it can help them to understand and read into the direction of interest rates with greater clarity.
Background on edible commodities:
Rice is a staple in the diets of more than half of the world’s population, especially in Latin America, Asia, and the Middle East. Annual production of milled rice tops 480 million metric tons, which makes it the third most-produced grain in the world after corn and wheat.
An increase in rice prices or edible commodities, it will really add pressure to the existing global inflationary pressure. Hardship will be more intense especially compare to other commodities like crude oil.
In short, people can still live with some inconvenience without cars, but not without food.
Therefore, when food prices become much more expensive, the central banks immediate and urgent measures is to counter it by rising interest rates.
Content:
. Why edible commodities determine the direction of interest rates?
. Technical studies
. How to hedge or buy them?
Rice Market:
91 Metric Tons
$0.005 = US$10
Example -
$0.01 = US$20
$18.00 = 1800 x US$20 = US$18,000
From $18 to $19 = US$10,000
If you are trading this market for the short-term, do remember to use live data than delay ones.
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
Why Crude Oil is Trending Higher Again, Breaking Above US$100In this tutorial, I will explain both its fundamental and technical reasons for crude oil likely to break above and stay above US$100.
I am having two portfolios at all times, one for long-term investing and the other for short-term trading.
For the long-term I am mindful the current global inflationary pressure is real and it may last many months or even years ahead.
Therefore, my current investment mandate:
• U.S. stock markets – To trade them
• Commodities – To buy them
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
For your reference:
NYMEX Crude Oil
$0.01 = US$10
Example:
From $94.00 to $100.00
(10000-9400) x US$10 = US$6,000
Interest rates, Inflation and how to trade it.Hey Traders,
Massive week this week fundamentally for the Forex market. 3 big interest rate decisions being released so I thought there was no better time than now to have a chat about what it is, what it indicates and finally, how traders profit from it. Fed and BOE almost guaranteed to hike rates, RBA is sitting unsure.
Have a watch of the video and I am more than happy to have a discussion in the comment section!
As always, have a fantastic trading week and I wish you all many profits.