Q. Why when the FED raises interest rates does the rand weaken?A. Whenever you think about a country raising interest rates, we need to consider what happens to investors and where they are more likely to deposit their money.
So, as we are expecting an increase in interest rates this month from the FED, there are a few reasons why we can expect the rand to weaken further:
Here are three to consider…
Reason #1: Investors flock to the US Dollar
When the US Federal Reserve raises interest rates, it becomes more attractive for investors to hold or buy US-dollar denominated assets.
That’s because they know they’ll receive a higher rate when they invest in it.
This will also lead to a rise in the US dollar and a drop in smaller currencies (like the rand).
Reason #2: US Dollar is still the fat cat of reserve currencies
A rise in US interest rates may lead to higher borrowing costs globally.
This is because the US dollar is still the world's primary reserve currency.
When we think of gold, Bitcoin and other precious metals, we think of how it’s priced in US dollars.
The problem with this, is that emerging market countries, like South Africa, will
face higher debt-servicing costs as the US interest rates continue to move up.
And this could continue to put pressure on their economies which will lead to a depreciation in the rand.
Reason #3: South Africa is still a big exporter
Also, South Africa remains one of the major exporters of commodities.
And the value of the rand is linked to fluctuations in commodity prices.
So, when US interest rates rise, this leads to a stronger US dollar. And can
cause commodity prices to drop (as they are generally priced in US dollars).
As South Africa is a major commodity exporter, the lower commodity prices would have a negative impact in SA’s export revenue – which can in turn weaken the rand further.
Interestrates
FED Interest Rates and it's mechanism BINANCE:BTCUSDT
In the United States, the federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions (banks and credit unions) lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight on an uncollateralized basis. Reserve balances are amounts held at the Federal Reserve to maintain depository institutions' reserve requirements. Institutions with surplus balances in their accounts lend those balances to institutions in need of larger balances. The federal funds rate is an important benchmark in financial markets.
The effective federal funds rate (EFFR) is calculated as the effective median interest rate of overnight federal funds transactions during the previous business day. It is published daily by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
The federal funds target range is determined by a meeting of the members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) which normally occurs eight times a year about seven weeks apart. The committee may also hold additional meetings and implement target rate changes outside of its normal schedule.
The Federal Reserve uses open market operations to bring the effective rate into the target range. The target range is chosen in part to influence the money supply in the U.S. economy
Financial institutions are obligated by law to hold liquid assets that can be used to cover sustained net cash outflows. Among these assets are the deposits that the institutions maintain, directly or indirectly, with a Federal Reserve Bank. An institution that is below its required liquidity can address this temporarily by borrowing from institutions that have Federal Reserve deposits in excess of the requirement. The interest rate that a borrowing bank pays to a lending bank to borrow the funds is negotiated between the two banks, and the weighted average of this rate across all such transactions is the effective federal funds rate.
The Federal Open Market Committee regularly sets a target range for the federal funds rate according to its policy goals and the economic conditions of the United States. It directs the Federal Reserve Banks to influence the rate toward that range with open market operations or adjustments to their own deposit interest rates. Although this is commonly referred to as "setting interest rates," the effect is not immediate and depends on the banks' response to money market conditions. Separately, the Federal Reserve lends directly to institutions through its discount window, at a rate that is usually higher than the federal funds rate.
Future contracts in the federal funds rate trade on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), and the financial press refer to these contracts when estimating the probabilities of upcoming FOMC actions.
When the FOMC wishes to reduce interest rates they will increase the supply of money by buying government securities. When additional supply is added and everything else remains constant, the price of borrowed funds – the federal funds rate – falls. Conversely, when the Committee wishes to increase the federal funds rate, they will instruct the Desk Manager to sell government securities, thereby taking the money they earn on the proceeds of those sales out of circulation and reducing the money supply. When supply is taken away and everything else remains constant, the interest rate will normally rise.
The Federal Reserve has responded to a potential slow-down by lowering the target federal funds rate during recessions and other periods of lower growth. In fact, the Committee's lowering has recently predated recessions, in order to stimulate the economy and cushion the fall. Reducing the federal funds rate makes money cheaper, allowing an influx of credit into the economy through all types of loans.
How FED / ECB Interest rates set trendsWatch how interest rates decisions set trends in EURUSD and Dollar Index impacting the entire forex market.
I marked all the previous interest hike decisions by FED and ECB.
2023 EURUSD bullish reversal was triggerred by ECB starting to raise iterest rates (after EUR hit the alarming 1.00 level). EUR might continue bullish until next tow hikes. From what I read ECB does not plan to hike rates for the rest of the year after May meeting (rates will stay at 4), so it is likely to trigger bearish reversal from May.
Likelwise, 2020 EUR bullish ride (and dollar weakness) was triggerred by FED lowering interest rates (in March 2020) after COVID hit.
FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.
Good luck in your trading! God bless!
Rates Obsession - a pro interest rates set-up on TradingView Interest rate pricing has a huge effect across many financial markets at present – the correlation between short-term rates, rates volatility and the USD is certainly evident.
However, with such a big window for increased volatility in interest rates pricing, as traders try and price the prospect of a 25bp or 50bp hike at the 22 March FOMC, as well as peak fed funds pricing, could increased pricing result in a big move in the USD and NAS100?
In the video, we look at how we can look at the fed funds curve and understand ‘what is priced in’ – we look at how to measure the degree of cuts priced in for a specific period of time, and how to look at implied volatility in bond markets – and, why it is important for FX and index traders?
Interest rates and short-term US Treasury bonds are the first derivative and so many markets take their direction from these inputs - hopefully, this gives some understanding of how you can use TradingView more effectively to assess these inputs.
💵THE WORLD IN DEBT💵
☑️The fact that the whole world is in massive Debt that can not be repaid is a buzzphrase that was around for like 20 years already.
20 years passed and nothing bad has happened, so what to worry about? In fact an entire political and economic movement called MMT or a modern monetary theory emerged claiming that government debt does not matter and that we can, you guessed it, print as much as we need(kinda)
☑️But the size of the debt itself was never really and issue so long as the government or a big company could service the debts.
That is if their cashflow was positive enough to cover the interest payments on the debt. Now however, as the FED is raising rates, this is an issue.
☑️And its not the USA who’s pile of debt we need to be worried about(they are borrowing in the currency they can print themselves, remember?) but rather the rest of the world and the companies. The majority of developing countries don’t have the internal capital required for development, so they need to borrow on the international financial markets in Dollars. And these counties are now facing a perfect storm of a higher cost of new borrowings in Dollars, lower revenues from foreign trade due to recession(and yes we are in a recession, Wake up) and the massive energy and food costs due to the war in Ukraine and the problems caused by the supply chain crisis.
☑️Most big public companies aren’t doing great either. The share of listed companies with the debt servicing costs higher than the profits is now more than 25% and if we exclude the accounting and financial engineering shenanigans, it is save to say that this share is close to 30%.
☑️So the third of the economy is outright insolvent. Multiple countries will either default soon or will at least be plunge into civil and economic unrest and go the way of Sri-Lanka, Pakistan and others… And Jerome Powell said that he aint stopping and that the Fed funds rate should go up by at least 2 percentage points more. So instead of the collapse of the USA, we are likely to see a chain reaction debt crisis In the rest of the world unless the FED changes its mind…
I Hope you guys learned something new today✅
Wish you all Best Of Luck👍
😇And may the odds be always in your favor😇
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How to use ECONOMIC INDICATORS for informed trading decisionsHello everyone! Here you have some information that I consider useful on how to interpret and use economic indicators and data to make informed trading decisions in the foreign exchange market:
GDP (Gross Domestic Product) - GDP is a measure of a country's economic output and is considered to be one of the most important indicators of economic growth. A higher GDP indicates a stronger economy, which can lead to an increase in demand for the country's currency.
Unemployment Rates - Unemployment rates measure the percentage of the workforce that is currently without a job. A low unemployment rate indicates a strong economy, which can lead to an increase in demand for the country's currency.
Inflation - Inflation measures the rate at which the average price level of a basket of goods and services in an economy is increasing. High inflation can lead to a decrease in demand for the country's currency, while low inflation can lead to an increase in demand.
Interest Rates - Interest rates are the cost of borrowing money and are set by central banks. High interest rates can attract foreign investment, leading to an increase in demand for the country's currency.
Trade Balance - The trade balance measures the difference between a country's exports and imports. A positive trade balance indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, which can lead to an increase in demand for the country's currency.
Political Stability - Political stability is an important factor to consider when trading in the foreign exchange market. A stable political environment can lead to an increase in demand for a country's currency, while political instability can lead to a decrease in demand.
In summary, GDP, unemployment rates, inflation, interest rates, trade balance and political stability are important economic indicators to keep an eye on when making trading decisions in the foreign exchange market. By considering these indicators, along with other market conditions, traders can make more informed decisions about when to buy or sell a particular currency.
Please note that the above information is not a financial advice and only for educational purpose, Economic indicators are important but not the only factor to consider while making trading decisions and It's always important to do your own research and consider your own risk tolerance before making any trades.
THE IMPACT OF INTEREST RATES ON FOREX MARKETHello again! Interest rates can have a significant impact on the forex market , as they can affect the demand for and supply of different currencies. In general, higher interest rates tend to attract foreign investment and increase the demand for a currency, as investors can earn a higher return on their investments. This can lead to an appreciation of the currency in the foreign exchange market.
On the other hand, lower interest rates may discourage foreign investment and reduce the demand for a currency, leading to a depreciation of the currency in the forex market.
Interest rates can also affect the attractiveness of a country's assets, such as stocks and bonds, which can in turn affect the demand for its currency. For example, if a country has high interest rates, its assets may be more attractive to foreign investors, leading to an increase in demand for the country's currency.
In addition to the interest rate level, the direction and pace of change in interest rates can also affect the forex market. If a central bank is expected to increase interest rates in the near future, it may lead to an appreciation of the currency, as investors anticipate higher returns on their investments. On the other hand, if a central bank is expected to lower interest rates, it may lead to a depreciation of the currency.
Overall, the relationship between interest rates and the forex market is complex and can be influenced by a variety of factors, including economic conditions, inflation expectations, and global market conditions.
ECONOMIC CYCLE & INTEREST RATESHello traders and future traders! The state of an economy can be either growing or shrinking. When an economy is growing, it typically leads to improved conditions for individuals and businesses. Conversely, when an economy is shrinking or experiencing a recession, it can have negative consequences. The central bank works to maintain a stable level of inflation and support moderate economic growth through the management of interest rates.
What is an economic cycle?
An economic cycle refers to the fluctuations or ups and downs in economic activity over a period of time. These cycles are typically characterized by periods of economic growth and expansion, followed by periods of contraction or recession. Economic cycles are often measured by changes in gross domestic product (GDP) and other economic indicators, such as employment, consumer spending, and business investment.
Economic cycles can be caused by a variety of factors, including changes in monetary and fiscal policy, shifts in consumer and business confidence, and changes in global economic conditions. Economic cycles can also be influenced by external events, such as natural disasters or political instability.
Understanding economic cycles is important for businesses, governments, and individuals, as it helps them anticipate and prepare for changes in the economy and make informed decisions about investment, hiring, and other economic activities.
How is an economic cycle related to interest rates?
Interest rates can be an important factor in the economic cycle . During a period of economic expansion, demand for credit typically increases, as businesses and consumers borrow money to make investments and purchases. As a result, interest rates may rise to control the demand for credit and prevent the economy from overheating. Higher interest rates can also encourage saving, which can help to balance out the increased spending that often occurs during an economic expansion.
On the other hand, during a period of economic contraction or recession, demand for credit tends to decline, as businesses and consumers become more cautious about borrowing and spending. In response, central banks may lower interest rates to stimulate demand for credit and encourage economic activity. Lower interest rates can also make borrowing cheaper and more attractive, which can help to boost spending and support economic growth.
Overall, the relationship between interest rates and the economic cycle can be complex and dynamic, and the direction and magnitude of changes in interest rates can depend on a variety of factors, including economic conditions, inflation expectations, and the goals and objectives of central banks and other policy makers.
I hope you leant something new today!
6 Reasons why the gold price will drop with interest rate hikes The FOMC announced another 50bps (0.50%) Interest Rate increase to 4.50% which has lead to short term downside for gold as an initial reaction.
The question for many remains.
Why does gold drop when interest rates rise?
There are a number of reasons, but here are the top 5…
#1: Investors look elsewhere
Higher interest rates can make other investments, such as fixed investment assets and bonds, more attractive to investors. Gold investors will then sell their gold holdings and take advantage of higher interest rate yielding assets. This can lead to investors moving their money out of gold, which can lead to a drop in price.
#2: Stronger U.S Dollar
A higher U.S dollar can lead to gold being more expensive for investors who use other currencies to buy it. This can lead to a drop in demand for gold, which brings the price lower.
#3: Higher borrowing costs
When interest rates rise, this increases the costs of borrowing for business and consumers. They now need to pay more to borrow money to fund their operations. This can hamper the economic activity and drop the demand for buying stocks, precious metals and other investments.
#4: Higher yields on gold-mining companies bonds
Fixed investment gold bonds may seem more attractive than holding and investing in gold itself. This leads to a drop in gold mining stocks which essentially helps with the drop in gold.
#5: More supply less demand
With the factors I mentioned above, with investors leaving gold this increases the supply of the metal and decreases the demand. This leads to a drop in the gold price.
#6: Uncertainty floods the markets
When interest rates go up, this leads to uncertainty in financial markets (where gold is no exception). Investors feel the uncertainty and become worried for the economy. This can lead to a decrease in demand for gold and a drop in its price.
These are all speculations in theory with why the gold price may drop with an increase in interest rates. We notice that the markets don’t always play according…
Since the May 2022 Gold has moved in a sideways consolidation pattern. And this means, we can see the price continue in the range. Until we actually see a break up or down, the analysis in the medium term is sideways. We’ll be watching this carefully.
Follow for more trading and fundamentals tips and analyses from the info I've learnt over the last 20 years as a trader.
Trade well, live free.
Timon
MATI Trader
Higher interest rates can also lead to higher yields on gold-mining companies' bonds, which can make these bonds more attractive to investors. This can lead to a decrease in demand for gold-mining stocks and a drop in the price of gold.
Higher interest rates can also increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, as the metal does not generate any income or interest. This can make investors less likely to hold onto gold as a long-term investment.
Gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation, and higher interest rates can signal that the central bank is trying to keep inflation in check. This can reduce the perceived need for gold as a hedge and lead to a drop in its price.
5 Reasons why Interest Rate hikes causes markets to fall - FOMC We had the CPI come our better than expected (7.1%) versus 7.3% expected.
This means finally inflation is decelerating at an accelerating rate which is good for the markets.
However, today with the FOMC they are expecting a 50 bps hike or 0.5% rise.
Just a reminder in simple terms
Interest rates is the amount of money (expressed as a %) that a lender charges a borrower for the use of their money.
The interest rate is the percentage of the money you borrowed that you have to pay back as a fee.
Now there are a few reasons why interest rate hikes can cause global markets to fall including.
1. Better places to invest in
Investors take their money out of stocks and financial assets and into banks where the potential return is higher.
2. Strong economy
When interest rates rise it tells is the economy is improving and getting stronger. This can lead to higher inflation expectations.
3. Expensive for businesses
When interest rates rise, it makes the borrowing more expensive for businesses. This is based on the borrowing of buildings, assets and equipment. They now need to pay a higher rate to finance their debt.
4. Better for bonds and fixed investments
Again, investors want a better ROI. They will take money out of the financial markets and more into bonds and other fixed-income investments.
5. Higher US Dollar
Higher Interest rates often lead to a stronger dollar. U.S Exports become less competitive which hurts many multi-national companies. and less attractive for U.S stocks.
Hope that helps. Save this so you have an idea on how Interest Rates move the markets. Follow for more daily tips. Thanks for the support.
Trade well, live free.
Timon
MATI Trader
Q. How do you work out CFD Interest Swaps with an example?Q. How do you work out CFD Interest Swaps with an example?
Answer: CFDs is an instrument where you pay a small amount of money to be exposed to the full value of the share.
With CFDs, there are daily charges when you buy and daily income interest that you receive when you sell (go short).
The charge is known as a ‘daily swap’ or ‘daily interest charge’.
You can ask your broker what the annual interest swap rate is or you’ll most likely be able to find it on your platform…
With my broker for example, the long swap (for when you buy) is -9.47% per year.
And the short swap (for when you sell) is 2.71%.
With your Shoprite trade, because you’re buying CFDs (which is a geared instrument), you’re essentially borrowing the money from the bank.
This means, you have to pay interest on the borrowed funds (in order to be exposed to the full value).
Those are the ‘swaps’ we’re talking about.
Let’s say the Shoprite share is trading at R223.19 and the margin (initial deposit) to buy 1 CFD is 9.7% (R21.70).
This means, when you buy 1 CFD for R21.70, you’ll be exposed to the full R223.19 worth of the share.
If you buy 100 CFDs and pay R2,170 (100 CFDs X R21.70) you’ll be exposed to the full R22,319 worth of shares (100 shares X 223.19).
And if you sold the 100 CFDs at R236.00, you would have been exposed to R23,600.
On that R22,319 exposure, you’ll pay 9.47% (R2,113.60) interest (swap) per year.
But luckily as traders, you don’t need to worry about paying the full amount, as we like to hold only for a short period of time.
This means, each day you hold the CFD with exposure of R22,319 – you’ll only pay R5.49.
(Exposure of your trade X 9.47%) ÷ 365 days.
If the exposure never changed and you held onto your trade at the same share price you would pay R54.90 (after 10 days).
However, we know that share prices move up and down each day.
The higher the market goes up, the higher your exposure where you’ll pay slightly more.
If the market price drops, you will pay slightly less.
However, as traders we don’t tend to hold for more than a couple of days or weeks to curb the daily interest charges.
If you have any other questions please ask in the comments :)
Trade well, live free.
Timon
MATI Trader
Terminal rates - How FX traders can benefit on TradingViewOne of the more watched interest rate settings in markets is the so-called ‘terminal’ interest rate – the point in the interest rate futures curve that reflects the highest point of future rate expectations – said differently, where the market feels a central bank could take its key policy rate by a specific date.
For those who really want to understand fed funds futures far better, this research piece from the St. Louis Fed is good - files.stlouisfed.org
As an FX trader, I am not too concerned as to the exact pricing in the rates market, a basis point here or there is no great issue - I loosely want to know what is priced by way of future expectations. This lends itself to more fundamental, tactical or thematic trading strategies and obviously day traders won’t pay too close attention, although, it’s worth considering that when rates are on the move you do see higher intraday volatility and that is a factor they have to operate in – where one of the core considerations for any day trader is ‘environment recognition’ and the assessment of whether we’re seeing in a trending or mean reversion (convergence) day.
We also see terminal pricing correlated with FX and equity markets – certain if we look at the relationship between fed funds futures April contract and USDJPY we can see the correlation.
Some will just use the US 2-year Treasury, as this is the point on the US Treasury curve that is most sensitive to rate pricing. The good thing about the fed fund's future though is we can see quantitatively the degree of rate hikes being priced for a set date.
Using the logic expressed in the St Louis Fed research piece we can see that the market sees the highest level where the Fed hike rates is March – subsequently, this is priced off the April contract, and currently, this sits at 4.90%.
Using 4.9% as our yardstick, interest rate traders would make a call if the expected fed funds effective rate was either priced too high, or indeed too low and could push above 5% - if new economic data emerged that suggested the Fed needed to go even harder on hiking than what is priced, and the terminal rate moves above 5% then the USD will find a new leg higher. Conversely, if the market started to trade this down to say 4.70% to 4.5% then the USD will find sellers – and notably USDJPY is the cleanest expression of interest rate differentials.
For TradingView users we can use this code in the finder box - (100-ZQJ2023). I put these codes into a watchlist and add a section' for heightened display. Again, this tells me where the peak pricing/expectations are in the interest rate curve. You can see the corresponding codes needed for each contract.
Terminal rates matter – if we're to see this trending lower, most likely in 2023, then it may be one of the clear release valves the equity market needs – for those looking for the Fed to pivot – the terminal rate will be one way to visualise it
Bites Of Trading Knowledge For New TOP Traders #15 (short read)Bites Of Trading Knowledge For New TOP Traders #15
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What is an Interest Rate Differential? -
An interest rate differential is a change in the interest rates between the currencies of two countries. It is a measure of how money from two countries compares to each other.
What is the Carry Trade? -
The carry trade is where an investor borrows in a currency where the interest rate is low and converts those funds into a currency where the interest rate is higher.
For example, if one currency has an interest rate of 5% and the other has a rate of 1%, it has a 4% interest rate differential. If you were to buy the currency that pays 5% against one that pays 1%, you would be paid on the difference with daily interest payments.
RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR CORPORATES AND INDIVIDUAL INVESTORS -
Common application of financial market instruments for managing risk and opportunities.
Diversification: Portfolio Risk Using FX Futures
Portfolio diversification is the process of investing your money in different asset classes and securities in order to minimize the overall risk of the portfolio.
For both corporate and individual investors, having access to markets that enable the building of a diversified portfolio is an important consideration when managing futures focused accounts.
Similar to managing risk, the market to trade would be a key variable to clearly state and support with reasons for trading or investing. Reasons for selecting one market over another could include price volatility, liquidity, daily volume traded, size of the minimum price increment, and value of the minimum price increment. Comparing these variables between markets will help decide the suitability and/or risk of each.
For example, the parameters for a price driven strategy may be designed to be applied to any market whether it be index equity futures or forex futures. However, the signals for entry may not always trigger if a trader were just to focus on a single index equity futures. Having access to markets such as the Micro MSCI USA Index futures could add diversification to a portfolio in an efficient manner.
Having access to other futures markets to apply the strategy to allow for the creation of a diversified portfolio with varying entry and exit points or the ability for more trading oriented investors increased opportunities to execute price driven strategies more often across a range of futures markets.
TRADDICTIV · Research Team
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Disclaimer:
We do not provide investment advice, nor provide any personalized investment recommendations and/or advice in making a decision to trade. Before you start trading, please make sure you have considered your entire financial situation, including financial commitments and you understand that trading is highly speculative and that you could sustain significant losses.
How to manage Capital in an Economic DownturnThe Great Recession is not the first time that the economy has experienced downturn or recession. The last one occurred during the early 1980s, and it caused unemployment to spike and home prices to drop. However, that doesn’t mean that a similar situation cannot happen again. The effects of a recession have lasting implications for consumers and businesses. When consumers have less money to spend on goods and services, businesses must make adjustments in order to remain profitable. In fact, recessions can lead to innovation in industries like technology where creative minds come up with cheaper solutions for everyday problems. Here’s a look at how consumers are affected by recessions, what they’re doing about it, as well as how you can manage your money in these challenging times.
What Happens When the Economy Recovers?
When the economy recovers from a recession, there are typically two ways that consumers spend their money. One way is that consumers continue to spend on the same products and services that they bought before the recession. The other spending trend that occurs during a recovery is that consumers change the products and services that they spend money on. The reason for this change in spending habits is that consumers have changed their priorities during the recession. When a recession has caused consumers to have less disposable income, they tend to make their money go further. When consumers have less disposable income, they can no longer afford to spend money on certain products and services.
The Impact of a Recession on Consumers
A recession can have a lasting impact on consumers. Consumers who experience a recession tend to have less confidence in their ability to manage their money. This can cause lasting damage to their credit scores as they seek out lower interest loans or take out a repayment plan. A recession can also impact a consumer’s career and ability to earn a living wage. When a recession occurs, businesses have to make changes to remain profitable. This might include laying off employees or reducing the hours that part-time workers are scheduled for. A recession can impact consumers’ ability to buy a home as well. Mortgage rates tend to be higher during a recession as investors seek out higher returns because of the increased risk of default.
Consumer Responses During a Recession
When a recession occurs, consumers are likely to make changes to their spending habits in order to save money. The first thing that consumers are likely to do is reduce discretionary spending. Discretionary spending is the money that is spent on entertainment activities, eating out at restaurants, shopping for luxury items, and on travel. Another common response of consumers during a recession is to change how they get their services. When a recession occurs, consumers are likely to change how they get their banking, insurance , and healthcare services as well as how they pay their bills.
How Consumers Can Manage Their Money in a Recession
The best way for consumers to manage their money during a recession is to make a budget. A budget for spending should include all of the money that goes out of your bank account each month as well as how much money comes into your account. When making a budget, it is important to consider your expenses and income to see if there is any room in your budget to make changes. This can include looking at your monthly expenses and trying to reduce the amount that you spend on certain items. When you are making a budget, it is important to keep in mind that you will have to change it as time goes on. As your income changes, you may have more or less money available to spend each month. Likewise, you may also have more or less expenses to pay each month.
Investing in the Stock Market: The stock market is one of the riskiest investments you can make. It’s also one of the most profitable when things go right. The stock market has its ups and downs, but it always rebounds in the long run. Even during a recession, savvy investors know how to make money in the stock market by investing in stocks and other types of securities. Investing in the stock market may seem intimidating at first, but it’s not as complicated as you think! In this Educational article, we’ll show you how to invest in the stock market if you have less than $5,000 to invest. With these tips and tricks to invest in a recession, you’ll be on your way to becoming a successful investor with an impressive portfolio sooner than you think!
How to invest in the stock market with $5,000
Before you dive head first into the stock market, it’s important to know how much you have to invest. While the stock market can be rewarding, it’s also one of the riskiest investments you can make. Investing in the stock market is all about risk and reward — the more risk you take, the bigger your reward can be. Investing in the stock market requires at least $5,000 in order to diversify your portfolio. Diversification is key to long-term success in the stock market. Rather than putting all of your eggs in one basket, diversification allows you to spread your funds across many different investments.
Diversification is key
When you’re investing in the stock market, it’s important to diversify your portfolio. Diversification allows you to spread your funds across many different investments for two reasons: risk reduction and opportunity enhancement. Risk reduction is accomplished by not putting all of your funds into one investment. Instead, you’re spreading the funds across different types of investments. Opportunity enhancement allows you to take advantage of different types of growth opportunities.
Understand why you’re investing
Before you invest in the stock market, it’s important to understand why you’re investing in the first place. If you’re investing for growth, you’re looking for stocks that are currently undervalued to increase in value over time. If you’re investing for income, you’re looking for stocks that pay dividends.
Take advantage of no-fee investments
When you invest in the stock market, you pay fees for the management of your portfolio. Mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are mutual funds that are pre-packaged and purchased as a single unit. Mutual funds are professionally managed funds that are offered by financial institutions, whereas ETFs are professionally managed funds that are traded on a stock exchange. If you’re investing a small amount of money in the stock market, you’re better off choosing mutual funds or ETFs that have no or low management fees. Mutual funds and ETFs with no or low management fees are often referred to as no-load funds.
Shorting ETFs can be profitable (This strategy is best suitable for Professional Traders)
Shorting ETFs can be profitable if you’re investing a large amount of money in the stock market. Shorting ETFs allows you to profit from a declining market. Shorting ETFs is a very risky investment strategy and is not recommended for beginners. If you’re interested in shorting ETFs, be sure to talk to a financial advisor before making any investments.
Additional Note: When the global economy is on the verge of recession, investors are scared and their first thought is to run towards things that are safe. In recent years, markets have grown to distrust risky investments such as stocks and other volatile assets. When the global economy is about to go into recession, commodities like gold and oil usually become hot properties for investors wanting to preserve their capital. There are a number of asset classes that thrive during a recession: real estate, bonds, and value stocks—or anything with a low correlation to the stock market. However, at the same time there are also some that suffer: high-beta stocks; growth stocks; growth real estate; luxury goods; emerging market equities; and anything else with a high correlation to the stock market. In our next article we will analyze Gold and Silver as an hedge against inflation and their performance in an economic downturn.
Conclusion
The recession that took place in the early 2000s is a great example of how a recession can change the way consumers spend their money. During this recession, consumers were likely to spend more money on food and clothing since those were necessities that consumers could not do without. When the next recession occurs, consumers may change their spending habits once again. However, it is important to remember that a recession is a natural part of the business cycle. It is likely that consumers will continue to spend their money in the future even in the face of a recession. Investing in the stock market is a smart way to diversify your investment portfolio. It’s also a great way to earn passive income through dividends. The best way to invest in the stock market if you have less than $5,000 to invest is through mutual funds or ETFs with no or low management fees. Shorting ETFs can also be a great way to make money in a recession if you have a large amount of funds to invest.
Even though the technical definition of a recession has been changed/modified it is important to know that unemployment rate determines the condition of a recession.
Why Corporate Bonds are not a good option for Retail InvestorsCorporate bonds or tradeable debt instruments issued by corporations are a type of fixed income security. Given the recent media attention and the rising demand for fixed income investments among retail investors, it may come as a surprise that they are not suitable for all investors. Corporate bonds have different risks associated with them than other fixed income investments like savings accounts, money market funds, and even municipal bonds. If you are considering investing in corporate bonds or are already holding some in your portfolio, here is why you should avoid them as a retail investor
What is a Corporate Bond?
A corporate bond is a debt instrument issued by a corporation to raise money. Corporate bonds typically have a set maturity date after which the outstanding principal will be repaid. There are many kinds of corporate bonds, including investment grade and high yield, government and non-government, and they can be issued in local or foreign currencies. Corporate bonds are often traded on the secondary market, which means they are liquid and can be bought and sold easily. Investors earn a return on corporate bonds by receiving interest payments and by the increase in the bond’s value as it matures. The interest rate on a corporate bond is based on factors like the company’s credit rating, the length of time the bond is outstanding, and the bond yield in the market at that time. Corporate bonds are typically less liquid than stocks, and may have shorter holding periods, especially if you purchase them on the secondary market.
Risks of investing in Corporate Bonds
Corporate bonds are considered a form of debt financing, and as such, there are risks associated with holding them. The main ones are default, liquidity, and interest rate risk. - Default risk - Investing in corporate bonds entails the risk that the issuing company will default on the payment of interest or the repayment of principal. However, since corporate bonds are issued by companies in different industries, there is a low probability that they will all default at the same time. - Liquidity risk - The risk that you will not be able to sell the investment in a timely fashion at a price that is attractive to you. - Interest rate risk - The risk that if you hold the investment until maturity, you will earn a lower rate of return because interest rates will have risen in the meantime.
Why you should avoid Corporate Bonds as a Retail Investor
While corporate bonds may be suitable for institutional investors, they are not a good option for the average retail investor. For one, you will have to educate yourself on the various types of corporate bonds, their risks and returns, and what kind of companies you should be investing in. Even if you are successful at taking this on, you are likely to end up with a very concentrated portfolio, which brings us to the next problem. The other issue is that retail investors typically hold a small number of bonds and these bonds are often concentrated in a few issuers. This is not a good strategy because if a company defaults, you could lose a large portion of your capital. This is clearly a bad strategy.
So, How about Investment grade debt ETFs?
LQD, In a rising interest-rate scenario. The bonds' tenure is clearly working against them, especially since unemployment continues to fall at an astonishing rate. This is not the time to invest in this ETF if the Fed raises interest rates to combat inflation.
In order to completely comprehend this analysis we must know how important the duration is, while investing in bonds.
Duration is an important topic. It is the bond's effective maturity, which means it is oriented to something lesser than the time of the bond's final payment since part of the bond's value, generally from coupons, happens earlier in the bond's existence. If a bond has a longer effective maturity at a fixed interest rate, it indicates that investors are tied to an interest rate that was once market for a longer period of time, and if rates increase as they are currently, you will be bound to an uneconomical rate for a longer period of time. Simply put, longer term bonds lose value more severely when interest rates increase.
How maturity of a these bonds (Duration) is affecting LQD
Unemployment has gone down despite the increased rates, which has surprised many analysts. The Phillips Curve is back in force, where low unemployment yields high inflation if inflation is kept down, and contrary to common perception, Consumer spending has declined, but unemployment is so low that it might rise again unless the Federal Reserve, which is committed to lowering inflation, continues its anti-inflation campaign. The Federal Reserve has raised rates as well as given gloomy recession predictions, and more banks are following its lead, including the Bank of England. LQD, which has dropped 14% this year, have long-duration bonds, majority of fixed-rate, which is concering for this ETF.
Credit Spread
Global Cooperate Bonds in general
Corporate bonds continuing their strong performance in July, producing $80 million (+76% year on year). July was the most profitable month of the year for CBs . Their revenues in 2022 have exceeded from 2021 ($512 million). Average balances increased by 9.8% year on year, average costs increased by 59% year on year, and usage have increased by 27% year on year. Spreads on non-investment grade and high yield bonds continue to widen as corporate prospects deteriorate owing to weakening consumer demand and stricter financial conditions. In-turns , asset values fall, yields rises, and borrower demand increases. However, CG Debt funds have seen the highest monthly outflows in May and June (-$73.7 billion)
In July, High Yield Bonds enjoyed the relieve rally.
Interest rates vs Corporate Bonds comparison
Alternatives to Corporate Bonds for retail investors
For retail investors, the most advisable option is to go with government bonds. Government bonds have historically offered a lower risk profile compared to corporate bonds. The best way to go about investing in government bonds is to go for a diversified bond fund. Using a bond fund reduces the risk associated with investing in bonds further as the fund manager may hold a large number of different bonds. If you are looking at a short-term investment horizon (less than 10 years), then you could also opt for short-term government bonds. If you have a long-term horizon, then you could consider a long-term government bond fund. Savings accounts, money market funds, and short-term government bonds are very liquid forms of low risk investment options.
Conclusion
It is important to understand that the corporate bond market is not risk-free. When interest rates are rising, corporate bonds are generally falling in price as they are competing against government bonds with lower interest rates. In times of economic uncertainty or when interest rates are rising, the risk of default is generally higher for companies issuing corporate bonds. Thus, it is advisable to invest in corporate bonds only when the economy is growing steadily. For retail investors, the best options are to go with government bonds or short-term government bonds. These are low risk, liquid investments and will help you achieve your financial goals.
Can Interest Rate Be Traded Or Invested?How can we participate in the rise and fall of interest rate? Firstly, we need to understand the difference between interest rate and yield.
Interest rates are a benchmark for borrowers whereas yield is for investors or lenders.
• Interest rates are the fees charged, as a percentage from a lender for a loan.
• Yield is the percentage of earnings a person receives for lending money.
Both move in tandem together, meaning if yield moves higher, interest rates will follow.
Discussion:
• Direction of the Yield in the short-term and
• Direction of the Yield in the long-term
Divergence in a bull market means the bull is losing its momentum, keep a look-out for trigger points that may cause further stress to the market.
Micro 10-Year Yield Futures
1/10 of 1bp = US$1 or
0.001% = US$1
3.000% to 3.050% = US$50
3.000% to 4.000% = US$1,000
Note:
Micro Treasury futures are not micro-sized U.S. Treasury securities. They convey no rights of ownership, nor or they pay or accrue interest.
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
Ugly Markets - Embrace the TrendsThe trend is always our best friend in markets across all asset classes. While many investors and traders waste their time interpreting the new cycle and other factors, the path of least resistance of market prices is a real-time indicator of the current sentiment.
Stocks and bonds fall in Q2
Four of six commodity sectors post losses
Rising interest rates and a strong dollar
Economic contraction- Copper tells a story
Go with the flow
Market prices rise when buyers are more aggressive than sellers and fall when sellers dominate buyers. The current price of any asset is always the correct price because it is the level where buyers and sellers agree on value in a transparent environment, the marketplace.
The results for Q2 were ugly in most markets. Stocks and bonds fell, the dollar index rose, and four of six commodity sectors posted losses. The best performing sectors reflect the supply-side issues created by the war in Ukraine, sanctions on Russia, and Russian retaliation.
Uncertainty in markets creates price variance, and markets reflect the economic and geopolitical landscapes. As we move into the second half of 2022, uncertainty is at the highest level in years. Meanwhile, market liquidity tends to decline during the summer vacation months. Lower participation only exacerbates price variance as bids can disappear during selloffs and offers often evaporate during rallies. It is a time for caution in markets across all asset classes, but the trends on a simple price chart tell us all we need to know about the path of least resistance of prices.
Stocks and bonds fall in Q2
The stock market was ugly in Q2:
The DJIA fell 11.25%
The S&P 500 declined 16.45%
The tech-heavy NASDAQ dropped 22.45%
Over the first half of 2022:
The DJIA was down 15.31%
The S&P 500 fell 20.58%
The NASDAQ plunged 29.51%
As the Fed began increasing the Fed Funds Rate and reducing its swollen balance sheet, the US 30-Year Treasury bond futures fell 8.19% in Q2 and were 13.75% lower over the first half of this year as of June 30. The long bond fell below its technical support level at the October 2018 136-16 low and reached 132-09 in June before bouncing.
Four of six commodity sectors post losses
While the energy and animal protein sectors posted gains in Q2, base and precious metals, grains, and soft commodities moved to the downside. The quarterly results by sector were:
Energy- +6.77%
Animal proteins- +3.31%
Gains- -3.46%
Soft commodities- -4.12%
Precious metals- -12.91%
Base metals- -27.24%
Over the first half of 2022, four of six sectors were higher than at the end of 2021:
Energy- +43.86%
Grains- +14.65%
Animal proteins- +10.96%
Soft commodities- +1.46%
Precious metals - -5.43%
Base metals- -13.07%
The results reflect the economic and political landscapes. Energy and food prices rose as the war in Ukraine threatens the global supply chains. Metal prices declined because central bank policies and economic conditions led to rising rates and a strong US dollar.
Rising interest rates and a strong dollar
The US Federal Reserve blamed rising prices and inflation on “transitory” pandemic-related factors throughout most of 2021. The central bank waited far too long to address inflation and is now playing catch-up when the war in Ukraine and geopolitical tensions impact the global economy’s supply side. Central bank monetary policy can affect the demand-side, but they have few tools to manage supply-side shocks. The rise in energy and food and the decline in metal prices tell us that central banks are struggling to address the current economic landscape.
The US 30-Year Treasury bond futures chart shows the pattern of lower highs and lower lows. While the long bond bounced from the June low, the bearish trend remains intact in early July.
The US dollar index, which measures the US currency against other world reserve foreign exchange instruments, rose 6.21% in Q2 and was 9.28% higher over the first half of 2022. The dollar index settled at the 104.464 level on June 30 and rose to a new two-decade high of 107.615 on July 8. Since the US dollar is the world’s reserve currency and the pricing benchmark for most commodities, a strong dollar caused raw materials to rise in other currencies, putting downward pressure on dollar-based prices.
Economic contraction- Copper tells a story
The US remains the world’s leading economy. In Q1, US GDP fell, and it likely declined in Q2. The textbook definition of a recession is two consecutive quarterly GDP declines.
Copper is a base metal that trades on the London Metals Exchange and the CME’s COMEX division. Copper has a long history of diagnosing the economic climate, earning it the nickname Doctor Copper. In Q1, COMEX and LME copper prices rose by around 6.5%. In Q2, they plunged, with the COMEX futures falling 21.82% and the LME forwards dropping 20.41%. COMEX and LME copper prices were down over 15% over the first half of 2022.
The chart of COMEX copper futures shows the move to an all-time $5.01 per pound high in March 2022 and a decline to a low below $3.40 in early July. The descent below technical support at the August 2021 $3.98 low and nearly 30% drop as of July 8 are signs that recession is not on the horizon; it has already gripped the economy.
Go with the flow
Inflation remains at a four-decade high, and while raw material prices have declined, the economic condition is far higher than the current Fed Funds rate. The central bank has pledged to fight inflation with monetary policy tools. Higher interest rates could put more downward pressure on raw material prices and the stock market as the economy contracts. Time will tell if the Fed continues its hawkish path or reacts to current market conditions. Waiting far too long to address inflation in 2021 suggests the central bank will likely remain hawkish regardless of market conditions in 2022.
It is impossible to pick tops or bottoms in any market as prices often rise or fall far beyond where logic, reason, and rational analysis dictate. A market participant’s most effective tool is to follow the trends until they bend. The path of least resistance of asset prices can be the most significant factor for future performance. In these troubled times, where uncertainty is at the highest level in years, don’t fight the trends and go with the flow. In early Q2, it remains bearish in many markets across all asset classes. Stocks, bonds, commodities, cryptos, and other asset classes are making lower highs and lower lows, while the dollar index is moving in the opposite direction.
Markets are ugly, but nothing lasts forever. Trend following can be the best route for capturing the most significant moves. You will never buy the lows or sell the highs when following trends, as they will cause short positions at bottoms and long positions at market tops. However, trend-following allows for extracting a substantial percentage from a significant price move. Embrace those trends until they change.
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Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
How I Use Treasury Futures To Better Execute The E-mini S&P 500Interest Rate Futures are the market leaders this year. Our technical indicators have less of an impact when the Bond & Treasury Markets are on the move and as Traders we have to be aware of when that is and how it impacts the price action in the E-mini S&P 500, E-mini Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 Futures. In this video I go over a simple, but effective way I use the 10 YR Futures ZN1! & the Micro 10 YR Treasury Futures 10Y1! to better execute the Indexes.
To learn more about the Futures Products discussed in the video please check out CME Group's Website. I also mention that I trade futures on TradingView using TradeStation so please go to TradingView's website or TradeStation's website to learn more.
Past Performance is not indicative of Future Results. This is for Educational purposes only. Derivatives Trading is not suitable for all Investors.
Bond - Equity Correlation: The Most Important Question?TVC:US10Y TVC:NYA
A reminder that falling bond yields are synonymous with higher bond prices. In other words, a downtrend in yield equates to a bull market in bonds.
In January, bonds were still in a technical bull market as defined by the broad declining channel that had contained the 40 year bull market. In March the break of that downtrend turned the macro trend from bullish to neutral. Now, all that is left to define a bearish trend is a substantive violation of the 3.25% pivot zone. More recently, after testing the major macro pivot in the 3.25% zone, ten year Treasury yields have fallen sharply. The decline begs the question: Is the decline the result of the decades long negative correlation between equity and fixed income reasserting itself on the back of equity weakness or is it simply the beginning of a relief rally created by the combination of major support and a deeply oversold condition? While it is too soon to answer the question with any degree of certainty, it is clear that the outcome will have vitally important macro/portfolio implications. My guess is that if equities continue to weaken, that the bonds will continue to do better, but that without the bid provided by flight-to-quality that the outlook for bonds will quickly deteriorate as the oversold condition is alleviated. In future posts I will provide a deeper dive into the shorter term technical and fundamental outlook for bonds, but the posts from January 2, 11, and February 9 should provide adequate background for now.
Early in the year I published a five part market overview detailing my macro technical and fundamental views of the "Big 4" asset classes: Equities, Rates, Commodities and the Dollar. As part of that series I discussed the importance of the correlation between equities and bonds and the central role falling inflation played in creating the relationship.
This inverse correlation is a historical anomaly, yet it drives much modern portfolio construction. The idea is that when equities decline sharply, flight to quality in bonds pushes rates lower (bond prices higher). In other words, gains in the bond portion of the portfolio partially hedge losses in the equity portfolio. Variations of the 60/40 portfolio construction (60% equities and 40% bonds) and risk parity strategies are intended to shield investors from the worst of equity declines and indeed have had an admirable track record of reducing return volatility. After decades of success, the amount of assets devoted to this strategy, both overt and passive, is staggeringly huge. If the historic positive correlation is reasserting itself due to a change in the trend of inflation (stocks down and bonds down), the subsequent unwind has the potential to create massive dislocation.
In my view, the combination of extremely negative real rates (nominal rates less inflation), an inflation cycle that has turned from virtuous to vicious, and equity markets, that at least at the index level, are extremely overvalued, may be setting the stage for a polarity switch in which bond prices and equity prices fall and rise together. That has clearly been the case so far this year. Year-to-date (YTD) the bond composite has returned approximately -12% while the S&P has returned approximately -1%. In other words, both sides of 60/40 and risk parity portfolios have lost considerable value. If the year were to end now, it would be a historically bad year for the strategy. Is the switch in correlation a short term phenomenon or the start of something much larger? To my mind, this is the central question for the remainder of this year. I think the next few months will be telling.
There is also the tension between high inflation and the growing odds of a significant recession. Not only does high inflation serve as an inhibiter to real economic growth, but so will the Federal Reserves (Fed) effort to return inflation to its long term trend. Paul Volcker had to create twin recessions to beat the great inflation. I doubt very much that this Fed will escape without having to make a similar choice.
Notes:
It is worth remembering that in an economy that is overly financialized and debt burdened, rising rates often break the weakest link in the economic chain. Weak links can be systemically important institutions, sectors or simply a dramatic sell off in the equity markets. That markets are currently in distress is clear. What isn't clear is that the distress is enough to create a systemic risk event.
Bonds and equities frequently move into and out of positive and negative correlation in shorter time frames. When I talk about historical correlation I am referring to the very long term.
Good Trading:
Stewart Taylor, CMT
Chartered Market Technician
Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur.
Interest rates, Inflation and how to trade it.Hey Traders,
Massive week this week fundamentally for the Forex market. 3 big interest rate decisions being released so I thought there was no better time than now to have a chat about what it is, what it indicates and finally, how traders profit from it. Fed and BOE almost guaranteed to hike rates, RBA is sitting unsure.
Have a watch of the video and I am more than happy to have a discussion in the comment section!
As always, have a fantastic trading week and I wish you all many profits.
Why You Should Learn To Trade Interest RatesIf you're trading this market right now you have to keep your eye on Interest Rates. Why? Interest Rates have the largest web in the market. They impact every market we trade (even crypto :) What rates are doing not only impact the markets we trade, they impact us in everyday life. In this video I go over the best way to trade interest rates and even if you're not interested in trading interest rates, I go over the best markets to keep up on your quotes to see what rates are doing.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Derivatives trading is not suitable for all investors.
GBPUSD - basic Interest Rates StudyThis is a simple study of how interest rates influence the market.
I included 10 last values in my indicator. The base currency (GBP) is black. The second currency (USD) is red.
Between June and December, FED (USD) increased the interest rates 3 times by 0.250
BoE (GBP) also increased the interest rates by the same number but only once.
Obviously, this was a catalyst for a major bearish move. Not only that the rates difference had already been bearish at a time. The gap between the rates further increased! But look at the moment when BoE increased their rates. Even if insignificant for the long-term, it started a good counter-trend rally in the short-term.
In 2019, FED decreased the rate a few times, hence the difference changed a little in favor of GBP. At look how long the pair grew. It even smashed the previous highs until it resumed its downward trend based on the rate difference.
March 2020 was full of interest rate changes across all currencies. When BoE dropped the rate a little (in relative terms), FED decreased the dollar's interest rate rather drastically leading to a more than a year and a half long rally. Although it is losing its steam, it might yet continue for a while.
I created two indicators that can be used to study these relations and create a long-term vision once the rates change again (might take a moment to update). You can find them both in the public library :)
US Treasury Yield Curve and Inversions.This chart shows three times during the past three decades in which the yield curve inverts. An inversion is when the rate of a shorter term debt security is higher than the rate of a longer term debt security. This is identified on this chart in 2000, 2006, 2019.
Treasury Debt Securities:
Bill; less than one year to maturity at issue.
Note; greater than one year but less than 10 years to maturity at issue.
Bond; greater than 10 years to maturity at issue.
In 2000 the yield of the 3 month US Treasury Bill was about 6.3% while the yields of both the 5 year Note and 30 year Bond were around 5.8%.
In 2006 the yield of the 3 month US Treasury Bill was about 5.1% while the yields of both the 5 year Note and 30 year Bond were around 4.9%.
In 2019 the yield of the 3 month US Treasury Bill was about 2.3% while the yield of the 2 year Note was around 1.8%.