📊 Four Market PhasesThe four market phases in trading are characterized by different levels of buying and selling activity, trading volumes, news and sentiment, and price trends. By understanding these phases, traders and investors can better anticipate market movements and position themselves to take advantage of opportunities as they arise.
🔹 Accumulation
In this phase, the market is characterized by low trading volumes and a lack of clear price trend. Buyers and sellers are more or less balanced, and prices tend to remain within a certain range. This phase is often seen as a period of accumulation by smart money investors who are slowly building up positions before the market begins to trend.
🔹 Uptrend
In this phase, the market experiences a sustained rise in prices, driven by increasing demand from buyers. This is typically accompanied by higher trading volumes and positive news and sentiment. Traders may look to buy into dips during this phase, in order to take advantage of the overall trend.
🔹 Distribution
In this phase, the market begins to show signs of weakness, with prices starting to trend sideways or even decline. This is typically accompanied by lower trading volumes and negative news and sentiment. Smart money investors may begin to sell into strength during this phase, as they look to lock in profits before the market turns lower.
🔹 Downtrend
In this phase, the market experiences a sustained decline in prices, driven by increasing supply from sellers. This is typically accompanied by lower trading volumes and negative news and sentiment. Traders may look to sell into rallies during this phase, in order to take advantage of the overall trend.
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Marketphases
Wyckoff Phases in PracticeWe all know that market moves in Phases. The four most popular phases are –
1️⃣Accumulation
2️⃣Markup
3️⃣Distribution and
4️⃣Markdown
Mr. Wyckoff analyzed these phases further, esp . Accumulation and Distribution, to understand the price behavior for potential opportunities to trade/invest in the market.
In this tutorial I am going to have a brief discussion about Accumulation-sub-phases of the market with the help of an example that I came across today.
✅Phase A
🚩This phase is preceded by a major downtrend.
🚩Begins with a selling climax ( SC ) - Large down bars with abnormally high volume (see B).
🚩SC is followed by the largest rally in the major downtrend, associated with good buying volume . This Automatic Rally (AR) represents the change in character (ChoC) of the market - buyers taking over.
🚩Market retest the level B with a lower volume (supply) – Secondary Test (see D).
✅Phase B
🚩Usually the longest phase.
🚩Higher volume during rallies (eg. E) and lesser during retracements.
🚩Even if volume is high during retracements, price fails to make new lows.
🚩More secondary tests (see F) held at the support zone (B and D).
🚩Market consolidates testing supply and demand with no particular direction – Consolidation.
✅Phase C
🚩This phase is the smallest but the most important.
🚩Usually ends with a Spring (not in the above case).
🚩You would often see final shakeout of weak buyers in this phase. Price would dip underneath the support zone (B, D and F) and reverse sharply back above support.
🚩Perhaps the best time to enter for those who like to take low risk high probability trades.
🚩In the above case, point G was just another test of support Zone.
✅Phase D
🚩You would see swift action in this phase. Wide up bars (with high volume ) and small down bars (with low volume ) -Sign of Strength.
🚩This also represents the change in character, which now differs from the consolidation phase.
🚩ChoCh - Notice two blue rectangles and the price action in them. The action differs vehemently from the previous phases - wide bars with ease of movement.
🚩Price breaks the resistance zone (in most cases resistance would be the high of automatic rally).
🚩It again retests (after breakout) this resistance which now starts acting as support. This is called the Backup action.
🚩Further (re)accumulation can be seen here in many cases.
🚩This is perhaps the best time for those who like to enter after confirmation (A higher high; break of resistance; price jumping outside the range)
✅Phase E
🚀Accumulation is over and a trend is established - Markup phase
Not all bear markets end up with these accumulation-sub-phases. You may often see V-shaped recoveries just like what we experienced after March 2020 lows. But you will surely find some stocks or markets that moved in line with Wyckoff phases.
Thanks for reading.
Do like and comment.
📣Disclaimer: The views are personal only. Apply your own due diligence before making your investment decisions.
Understanding Market Cycles and PhasesUsing Bitcoin as a example, in this idea i am going to briefly explain the concept of Market Phases in a easy to understand way.
Market Cycles & Phases
Cycles are prevalent in all aspects of life; they range from the very short-term, like the life cycle of a insect, some which can live a few days, to the life cycle of a planet, which takes billions of years.
All financial markets go through the same phases and are cyclical. They rise, top out, drop, and then bottom out. When one market cycle is finished, another begins.
The problem is that most investors and traders either fail to recognize that markets are cyclical or forget to expect the end of the current market phase.
There are 4 key phases in a Market Cycle:
1. Accumulation
The heavy buying phase before the uptrend begins.
2. Mark Up/ Re accumulation
Mark Up is the uptrend, Re accumulation phases are sideways pauses in the uptrend where more buying occurs before continuation of trend.
3. Distribution
The heavy selling phase before the downtrend begins.
4. Mark Down / Redistribution
Mark Down is the downtrend, Re distrubution phases are sideways pauses in the downtrend where more selling occurs before continuation of trend.
Trend
The dictionary definition of trend: *a general development or change in a situation or in the way that people are behaving. In financial markets the direction the price of a asset is moving is referred to as the trend.
Markets are made up of several different kinds of trends, and it is the recognition of these trends that will largely determine the success or failure of your long and short-term investing.
There are 3 key trends in Markets:
1. Bullish (upwards, buyers in control) (higher lows, higher highs (HL, HH)
The Mark Up phase is an uptrend or bullish trend.
2. Bearish (downwards, sellers in control) (lower highs, lower lows (LH, LL)
The Mark Down phase is an downtrend or bearish trend.
3. Consolidation /Sideways (sideways, direction & control undecided temporarily)
Re accumulation & Re distrubution phases are consolidation phases or "pauses" in the market before continuation of trend or reversal.
It is essential to understand Market Cycles, Phases & Trends, which are important behavioral characteristics of how price develops over time. By fully understanding these concepts and how one can identify them, a trader or investor can generate more opportunities, secure a longer term plan reducing stress levels, and potentially maximize profits.
Once a asset has already moved on from the Accumulation phase the next best buying opportunity is the Reaccumulation phase (marked in yellow) where price usually starts to zigzag in a sideways movement after a strong upwards movement. The Reaccumulation phase is where the price is usually "held down" by large transactions, while buyers fill positions, eventually the price can no longer be held down and we see the continuation of the Mark Up.
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