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Predicting the Time-window for Turns, in all MarketsInexplicably, upon publishing this post, the Title Chart becomes distorted beyond recognition thus, all references are to this Original Chart - below Do markets trend on the medium term (months) and mean-revert on the long run (years)? Does Black's intuition bear out that prices tend to be off approximately by a factor of 2? (Taking years to equilibrate.) How does Technical Analysis , as a whole, act as a trend following system while Fundamental Analysis matters only once prices get way out of line? Is mean-reversion a sufficient self-correcting mechanism to temper irrational exuberance in financial markets? We examine these questions in the proceeding; In his 1986 piece Fisher Black wrote: "An efficient market is one in which price is within a factor 2 of value, i.e. the price is more than half of value and less than twice value. He went on saying: The factor of 2 is arbitrary, of course. Intuitively, though, it seems reasonable to me, in the light of sources of uncertainty about value and the strength of the forces tending to cause price to return to value. By this definition, I think almost all markets are efficient almost all of the time." The myth that “informed traders" step in and arbitrage away any small discrepancies between value and prices never made much sense. If for no other reason but the wisdom of crowds is too easily distracted by trends and panic. Humans are pretty much clueless about the “fundamental value" of anything traded in markets, save perhaps a few instruments in terms of some relative value. Prices regularly evolve pretty much unbridled in response to uninformed supply and demand flows, until the difference with value becomes so strong that some mean-reversion forces prices back to more reasonable levels. Black imagined, Efficient Market Theory would only make sense on time scales longer than the mean-reversion time (TMR), the order of magnitude of which is set by S√TMR∼d. For stock indices wit hS∼20%/year, makes TMR = ∼6 years. The dynamics of prices within Black’s uncertainty band is in fact not random but exhibits trends: in the absence of strong fundamental anchoring forces, investors tend to under-react to news or take cues from past price changes themselves. In fact, the notorious and unbridled reliance and un-anchored, speculative extrapolation is the mainstay of most investors, as well as Wall Street's itself, as it is the regular course of everyday "investing" across most asset classes. In the following a picture emerges (and we test it), whether market returns are positively correlated on time scales TMR and negatively correlated on long time scales ∼TMR, before eventually following the (very) long term fate of fundamental value - in what looks like a biased geometric random walk with a non-stationary drift. We have looked at a very large set of financial instruments, drawing on data sets from 1800 - 2020 (i.e. 220 years). We applied the same method to all available data in Stocks, Bonds, FX, Commodity Futures and Spot Prices, the shortest data set going back 1955. As it turns out that, in particular, mean-reversion forces start cancelling trend following forces after a period of around 2 years, and mean-reversion seems to peak for channel widths on the order of 50-100%, which corresponds to Black’s “factor 2”. Mean-reversion appears as a mitigating force against trend following that allows markets to become efficient on the very long run, as anticipated previously by many authors. Regarding the data we used for this study; Commodity Data sets - Starting date Natural Gas 1986 Corn 1858 Wheat 1841 Sugar 1784 Live Cattle 1858 Copper 1800 Equity Price data sets - Starting date USA 1791 Australia 1875 Canada 1914 Germany 1870 Switzerlan 1914 Japan 1914 United Kingdom 1693 From trends to mean-reversion The relation between past de-trended returns on scale t'< and future de-trended returns on scale t'>. Defining p(t) as the price level of any asset (stock index, bond,commodity, etc.) at time t. The long term trend over some ti scale T is defined as: mt:=1Tlog . For each contract and time t, we associate a point(x,y) where x is the de-trended past return on scale t'< and y the de-trended future return on scale t>:x:= logp(t)−logp(t−t'<)−mtt'<;y:= logp(t+t'>)−logp(t)−mtm't'. Note that the future return is de-trended in a causal way, i.e. no future information is used here (otherwise mean-reversion would be trivial). For convenience, both x and y are normalized such that their variance is unity. Remarkably, all data,including futures and spot data lead to the same overall conclusions. See in chart; As the function of the past (time) horizon t'< (log scale) for Red & White Bars, the futures daily data and spot monthly data. To compare the behaviour of the regression slope shown in the chart with a simple model, assume that the de-trended log-price pi(t) evolves as a mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process driven by a positively correlated trending noise m. It is immediately apparent from the dashed line in the chart that the prediction of such a model with g= 0.22, k−1= 16 years and y'−1= 33 days, chosen to fit the futures data and g= 0.33, k'−1= 8 years and gh'−1= 200 days, chosen to fit the spot data. In the short term volatility of prices is simply given by S'2k's'. Non-linear effects A closer look at the plot(x,y )however reveals significant departure from a simple linear behaviour. One expects trend effects to weaken as the absolute value of past returns increases, as indeed reported previously. We have therefore attempted a cubic polynomial regression, devised to capture both potential asymmetries between positive and negative returns, and saturation or even inversion effects for large returns. The conclusion on the change of sign of the slope around yt'<= 2 years is therefore robust. The quadratic term, on the other hand, is positive for short lags but becomes negative at longer lags, for both data sets. The cubic term appears to be negative for all time scales in the case of futures, but this conclusion is less clear-cut for spot data. The behaviour of the quadratic term is interesting, as it indicates that positive trends are stronger than negative trends on short time scales, while negative trends are stronger than positive trends on long time scales. A negative cubic term, on the other hand, suggests that large moves (in absolute value) tend to mean-revert, as expected, even on short time scales where trend is dominant for small moves. Taking these non-linearities into account however does not affect much the time scale for which the linear coefficient vanishes, i.e. roughly 2 years Conclusion Here we have provided some further evidence that markets trend on the medium term (months) and mean-revert on the long term (several years). This coincides with Black’s intuition that prices tend to be off by a factor of 2. It takes roughly 6 years for the price of an asset with 20 % annual volatility to vary by 50 %. We further postulate the presence of two types of agents in financial markets: Technical Analysts , who act as trend followers, and Fundamental Analysts , whose effects set in when the price is clearly out of whack. Mean-reversion is a self-correcting mechanism, tempering (albeit only weakly) the exuberance in financial markets. From a practical point of view, these results suggest that universal trend following strategies should be supplemented by universal price-based “value strategies" that mean-revert on long term returns. As it's been observed before, trend-following strategies offer a hedge against market draw-downs while value strategies offer a hedge against over-exploited trends.
TVC:DJIEducation
by Nemo_Confidat
8
The psychology of price patternsWe have said before that changing attitudes determine price and price moves in trends that tend to perpetuate. So, how can a trend be defined? Simply, it is the movement of price in an irregular but persistent direction. When you zoom out your chart and watch price movement, whatever is obvious is the trend. The USDZAR chart below illustrates some trends you will encounter. For those that are familiar with watching charts, then we can say price moves in either of 3 ways: upwards, downwards, or sideways. When it is moving upwards or downwards, people say either the buyers are greater than the sellers, or the sellers are greater than the buyers. But thinking this way has errors. They are saying that the market is not in equilibrium. The correct interpretation of such upwards or downwards movement is that the buyers are either more aggressive or enthusiastic than sellers for uptrends, or the sellers are more aggressive or enthusiastic than buyers for downtrends. For the third case, the sideways movement, we can say that this is a transitional period, a period where the aggression of buyers and sellers are evenly matched. It is at these periods that price patterns develop. This is a period of consolidation between both sides of the market and it is of two types: a. Consolidation or continuation patterns: this is where the preceding trend before the consolidation is seen continues after the consolidation. That is uptrend to consolidation to uptrend vice versa. The chart below shows an example. b. Reversal pattern: this is where the opposing trend to the preceding trend before the consolidation is achieved. This pattern separates an uptrend from a downtrend, and a downtrend from an uptrend. These patterns are the bread and butter of the setups we trade in price action. These patterns sometimes don’t work in line with the fundamental news such that they might appear unbelievable. That is what makes them powerful. I have seen so many traders who saw a reversal pattern in an asset but who read that the fundamental news says the trend will continue. Because they chose to follow the crowd, rather than listen to price, they placed a trade in line with the fundamental news only to lose money in the process. This is why in my trading I don’t follow the fundamental news or what the crowd is saying. I listen to the crowd but don’t follow them. I follow price and the patterns that price gives. This is because every news in the market is already factored in the price. Therefore, it is better to follow price.
Education
by Emekadavid
Looking at a few of the WORSE calls of the past."We all gunna die! Listen to me" This has kept being repeated for at least tens of thousands of years. Those calls age like a fine milk, and when it does, the prophets of doom are nowhere to be found. Here are some of the most ridiculous and sad calls made in the past: > The millennium bug Also called year 2000 problem. This one is only 20 years old, but I'm sure some people haven't even heard of it. 20 years later the idiotic calls made back then are not advertised. Wikipedia has a page on it but they have not mentionned all of the terrible calls that were being made and repeated over and over in particular in the media. It's as if no one was stupid back then and the world acted rationally. See? You can't trust history. No, history books and wikipedia and sites that talk about it are wrong. It's not that they are wrong it's that they left the best bits out of the story? What? To not make people that feel ashamed look stupid? On tv some nuts were calling for the end of the world, literally. Some christians were claming this would be Jesus second coming. And they were getting attention. I was a kid and I already thought this was dumb. From an UN release: www.un.org "Some computer companies were beginning to be optimistic about the Y2K event and some were making a lot of money from devising ways of "fixing" problems related to the issue. Some were referring to a "Y2K boomlet" in the economy as a result of the Y2K fear." Suckers were becoming fearful and were getting fleeced. Haven't heard much from them. None have been giving speeches on their hiring of "experts" to "protect them from the mighty Y2K bug". People that compared those braindead sheep to nuts looking for exorcists and talismans weren't taken seriously, but they were right. The suckers that hired experts and bought "special software" (pun intended) to protect from the mighty Y2K bug were the modern version of suckers buying expensive talisman to protect against evil ghosts and spirits. The UN, these masterminds, these lights in the darkness, those beacons of hope, were expecting riots in the streets, wars, governments to be overthrown. 1 small article about some of this: www.wired.com AND NOW. IF YOU THINK THIS IS A JOKE. IF YOU THINK I AM EXAGERATING. "It wasn't that bad". 20 years later people have forgotten. People think it wasn't that stupid. Oh yeah? Then listen closely. The whole country of CANADA 🤡 PREPARED FOR A COMPLETE BREAKDOWN OF CIVILIZATION. "Canadian leaders were preparing for the possibility that civilization would break down" This article enters into more details about Canada reaction, and shows a few example of the measures that were taken: www.theglobeandmail.com There have been a handful of little bugs, and a few were avoided in advance. No biggie. Collapse of civilization lmao they're so bad. Aged like fine milk. > The 2020 coronavirus cold pandemic & governments reactions Too early? 😉 Can also add the "apocalyptic CO2 calls muh gLoBAl WArmINg" I'm eagerly waiting for those to age so I can say "told you so" and rub it in their faces. > Quick one: "Commodities will never go to zero" "The price of a commodity will never go to zero. When you invest in commodities futures, you're not buying a piece of paper that says you own an intangible piece of company that can go bankrupt." Jim Rogers. What's this Jim? You'll come in my office I want to have a word with you. > Gordon Brown bottom. Never forget. Former Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Gordon Brown, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer at the time (head of her Majesty Treasure, french equivalent I think I can say is "ministre des finances" "financial minister"), so basically the "financial expert", the head of the part of the government in charge of finance, made this wonderful sale in 1999-2002: Clearly a very competent man, which expertise is not just "knowing how to get elected". Ah, Mr Brown today is giving us his advice on how to deal with covid-19. Wonderful. Let's listen closely so we can do the exact opposite 😊 2009. Gordon Brown warning us of a Climate Change™ global catastrophe. Hahaha. No surprise here. www.telegraph.co.uk Gordon Brown. Losing tens of billions with horrible trades, and then asking tens of billion to taxpayers for some unproven illogical extremely exagerated dogma: www.independent.co.uk Absolute POS moronic politician. "My idea of a perfect government is one guy, in a small room, sitting at a desk, and the only thing he's allowed to decide is who to NUKE." - Ron Swanson Well said Ron. > "The Titanic is unskinkable" I don't think I have to explain :D Ye... It was being advertised as being "Titanic" and invincible. Aged well. Maybe the quote was taken out of context, I don't know every thing, I know that the other 2 titanic ships (HMHS Britannic, RMS Olympic, RMS Titanic) were used in the war and had their own issues. And I know that the Titanic just went straight for an Iceberg. So someone must have thought of it as nearly unsinkable. > "In 10 years Oil will cost $380 a barrel" (2005) "Experts economists" (yawn) were explaining that because of world consumption Oil prices would go up, impossible they would not go up, and would probably be around $380/barrel, and we needed renewables. And ye they explained they looked at sound science and clean facts and it was absolutely impossible for the price not to soar and we had to quickly forget cheap Oil YAAAAAAAAAWN! Dumb economists. So wrong all the time. This didn't pick up worldwide attention I think it's quite local. Article is in french... www.liberation.fr > "Prosperity will never end" 1929, 2000. In 2020 the sheep npcs updated their firmware. Now they're saying "stonks will always go up". > "I hope that with fast foods the french won't get fat like americans" - 1985 Whole world eats 20 grams of a salt a day and eats 1 meal a day. 1 meal that lasts all day long. > "Enron is the most innovative company" and "Share price will go to 1000" and "Retail is buying at these cheap price" Innovative in what sector? Fraud? I posted and laughed about Zoom investors, I laughed about USO (Oil Fund) buyers, I laughed about Carnival (cruise) and airline company buyers. But the medal really belongs to Enron -99% buyers. Yes. AFTER bankrupcy and the fraud was publicly known and on every news show over and over. Yes really. Retail investors REALLY bought Enron shares AFTER the collapse. Since then Enron got delisted so good luck selling, and they can't claim they got caught in a fraud got lied to or anything, since these masterminds bought AFTER the fraud went full public. Absolute genius. "Buy cheap". And regulators whine about Forex and restrict it and ban ads and are annoying. K that's enough for a single idea. > BONUS People can believe anything... By upvoting a non existant restaurant in London pranksters got mainstream to believe it existed, and it was the best restaurant in London, and people started looking for it. In 1996 Alan Sokal, a physics professor published a paper where he proposed that quantum gravity is a social and linguistic construct. A few weeks later he told every one he published a hoax. I think we can blindly trust "science" no problem 👍 In the late 2000s university students in France were whining about some law (in France universities are generally where the tourist students go, there are no famous french universities, french elites go to small ultra selective "schools"). I was going to my school and university participation trophy students warned they would block the access to our school. Our math teacher cracked up and she told us not to worry, because those kind of students "typically didn't wake up early". So basically for the next months these masterminds were standing in front of our school while we were in. Classes began BEFORE they got there, and classes ended AFTER they had already left. They stood in front of our doors for weeks of months, every day! And we couldn't care less and we were dying of laughter. They were just standing there for nothing, probably patting themselves on the back "aha! No one is coming no one is leaving they are not even trying to enter we have frozen this school" 🤣 LoL I wonder why these geniuses ended up in garbage universities and failed the selective schools admissions. Nothing to do with cognitive abilities I'm sure. "Miley Cyrus has many fans around the world. Young girls look up to Miley and her character Hannah Montana because they both set a good example for girls."
TVC:DJIEducation
by MrRenev
7
Bear Stampede to the bottom until the Christmas week. Just another pointless prediction, but I am often close to reality. Just experience, or perhaps logical thinking. I took a beating this season. I gave back anything I made in the spring. Why, because I am human, and my bias' clouded my normal logical thinking. I too fell into that death trap. I got out months ago, and bought real estate. I negotiated very well and pretty much made back my losses in that deal. Well I guess that remains to be seen when and if I resell. As for the markets, its still a hold. I expect to see a similar year-end pull back, mini-crash until Christmas week. Investors step in after Christmas pushing markets up until Spring. The key point is, you should be in cash right now, or other investments, hopefully, ETF's. If you are buying and holding anything in the POT sector, all I can say is, ouch! I bet you won't do that again. Following the bear stampede over a cliff has never been a good strategy. In my opinion investing with your bias is a sure way to lose money. Invest with the trend, the path of least resistance, and is a much much better method. Read all you can find about trend trading. I have a great reading list on www.wealthandgrowth.com to get you started. -Randal
TSX:ACBEducation
by 4XRandalll