Learning to stay ahead of market trends - 2023 & BeyondFollow my research. Learn why I expect 2023 to be a very difficult year for active traders and how you can avoid all the risks by modifying your capital allocation levels RIGHT NOW.
You don't have to stand in front of a freight train or try to force trades when they are not opportunistic. You could just wait for the better setup in July/Aug 2023 and ride out Wave-3.
Do you want to gain profits or just try to gamble your capital away?
Sure, if you are a day trader, you may be able to trade some of the bigger price swings over the next 5+ months. But, most of the price action is going to be in ETFs and select US stock sectors.
Learn to position your trades to capitalize when opportunities are the RICHEST for success. Wave-1 has nearly ended. You are trying to catch the last 5% to 7%+ of an uptrend before the US markets will slide into a Wave-2 correction.
Are you sure you want to risk a boatload of capital at the end of Wave-1 right now?
Knowing when to trade is important. Knowing when NOT to trade is even more important.
Make sure you are getting reliable information, content, and research.
Trading is not about trying to be the next zero-Billionaire in 25 days - it is about surviving and growing your accounts over the next 5 to 10+ year efficiently.
Follow my research.
Sectors
Sector Rotation Model in TradingviewI have decoded the following model in Tradingview
This is the sector rotation model where different sectors are stronger at different points in the economic cycle.
Here my results in Tradingview by creating this ad-hoc layout
I compare relative strengths of sectors at different points in the economic cycle with sectors which are stronger at previous economic cycle.
- dark red zone = Full Recession
- light green zone = Early Recovery
- dark green zone = Full Recovery
- light red zone = Early Recession
Example: Industrial sectors is seen strong during the early recovery. I want to see it stronger than Tech sector (which is strong during full recession, the previous economic cycle ) for confirmation of the actual early recovery cycle actually priced by investors.
Adding 200-periods and 50-periods simple moving averages (SMA) for better defining the trend.
- chart above SMA50 and SMA200 = bullish = confirmation of the economic cycle
- chart under SMA50 and SMA200 = bearish = not a confirmation of the economic cycle
- chart under SMA50 or SMA200 = neutral = uncertainty, not a confirmation of the economic cycle.
What actually Mr. Market is pricing now?
How you can see in the figure above, we have more confirmations (V symbols) at recovery cycle . No confirmation at Full Recession and one only confirmation at the early recession.
Mr. Market does not want the recession yet…