Stock Market Logic Series #3When you buy (get-in) fresh cucumbers, you have time until they will expire.
But when you need to (get-out). You need to liquidate FAST or cucumbers will rot and you cant sell them to anyone.
The same thing goes for the fashion industry.
When a clothes trader purchases clothes for sale he needs time to buy and ship the clothes to the store, it does not happen all at once. When the season ends, and if he needs to get rid of all this "unfashionable" end-of-season clothes. So he wants to liquidate and get out FAST! So you see massive discounts to get everything from him to the consumer.
The same goes for stock trading...
Hope this helps you read better the charts between buying behavior and selling behavior.
Want to know more?
Follow for the next stock market logic.
Short
The Doube Bottom Pattern - Bullish PatternThe **Double Bottom** is a price action pattern that is indicative of a trend change once activated. Price needs to establish a bearish expansion towards the lows before reversing with an impulse. The impulse then needs to get sold into; this will create a retest of the previous low that must hold. Price action will establish a “W” structure which become a sign of demand that leads to a bullish expansion.
Key Characteristics of the **Double Bottom**
- Price Action must first establish a bearish expansion
- The retest of the previous low most hold
- A ‘W’ like formation will confirm demand at the lows
EXPLAINED: Short Selling in 3 ways and with an exampleWhat is Short Selling?
This is where you sell (go short) an underlying market at a high price, anticipate a drop in price where you’ll buy it back at a lower price for a profit.
How short selling works…
To understand this concept, I’m going to break it down into three explanations.
• One line
• Step by Step
• Visual
Explanation #1:
One line
Short selling is the practice of selling a financial market (such as a share, crypto currency, index etc…) that you don’t own with the intention of buying the same market back later on at a lower price for a profit.
Explanation #2:
Step-by-Step
1. You sell a number of shares, which you don’t own, at a higher price.
NOTE: You borrow the shares from a broker or lender.
2. After time passes, the market then comes down in price.
3. You then decide to buy back the shares and close your position for a profit.
NOTE: When you buy the position back, you automatically return the borrowed shares to the broker/lender and pay them a fee.
4. You will pocket the difference between the price from where you sold the shares and the price where you bought them back.
The Broker gets the shares back you get the profit – bada bing bada boom – DONE.
Let me know what other term you would like explained.
Trade well, live free.
Timon
MATI Trader
Confluence example - 5 reasons to sellWe have trendline that connects highs and price is trending down. We also see resistance zone formation that price tested 3 times. On the 3rd
touch price also tested the trendline and formed bearish candlestick pattern. Stochastic indicator worked
well as it gave another confirmation so sell (red circle).
1. Downtrend
2. Trendline
3. Resistance
4. Bearish Candles
5. Stochastick Osc.
Price Action Ranges| Range High/Low| Deviations
In this segment we will discuss the concept behind Price Action Ranges; they are periods of oscillation in the market where supply and demand is balanced. Once this occurs, there is a high probability of a price expansion out of the range.
The basic concepts in price action ranges are the following:
- Range High Resistance
- Range Low Support
- Range –Mid
- Deviations
Range High Resistance
- This is an area on the chart where resistance is present, price action tests this area before reversing back down
Range Low Support
- This is an area on the chart where support is present, price action visits this area for a test before reversing back up
Deviations
- Deviations occur out of the region to generate liquidity, it is designed to trap trader before reversing in the opposite direction.
BTCUSDT High Time Frame Oder Block In this section we will discuss what a price action order block is and how it is currently relevant to Bitcoin’s price action.
An Order Block is a trade location that has a cluster of price action, creating a liquidity pool. Once price action expands from the region, it automatically becomes support or resistance – hence a block,
This area once penetrated will act as a range, causing a period of price action oscillation. The Order Block can be dissected into three sections, the high (resistance), the low (support) and the middle (equilibrium). Whichever region price action breaks from will lead to a continuation or a reversal in the overall trend.
In essence, Bitcoin can remain trading in the Order Block before until decisive bottoming or continuation structures are developed.
Hope this educational peace helps!
great setup for swing trading on #btc🔥hi there traders all around the world👋
one of the great setups that we can count on it is breaking the trend line and it simple.
when a trend line breaks spatially if that trend was a pullback in previous(we had a good bear trend line here) we must wait for price to reach and touch the trend line then we can enter.
tip: if price touches 2or 3 times its much better.
I hoper you enjoy the lessen I just teaches you, wish you all a great day with good profit.
cheers 🥂.
Part 2) Don't Fight The FED. The Yield Curve is Fine.All over financial news we're being told that the yield curve is inverting, spreads are flattening, the recession clock is ticking, there's impending doom around every corner. CNBC, Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, The Wall Street Journal, Forbes, The Economist, you pick your favorite news source and they're talking about 2's and 10's, 10's and 30's, it's Armageddon!!!
How about we look at the actual indicator the FED uses to predict U.S. Recessions. The Federal Reserve uses the 10-year/3-month term spread as it's most reliable indicator to predict U.S. Recessions. The charts posted above come directly from the Federal Reserve of New York's website. According to the FED's data the likelihood of a recession in the next 12 months is about 6%.
Here is the link to the website:
www.newyorkfed.org
Link to the interactive charts:
www.newyorkfed.org
Link to FAQ's:
www.newyorkfed.org
The team at All Star Charts did an interesting post on this topic just recently. I suggest you take a look.
allstarcharts.com
Food for thought. Thanks for reading. Good Luck to All!!
Educational: Head and Shoulder Reversal Patterns.There are a number of reversal patterns that playout time and time again. The most reliable of the reversal patterns is the "Head & Shoulders" top and bottom. Some technicians don't like to use the term head & shoulders as it's used quite a bit and not all reversal patterns are confirmed and end end up being consolidation patterns instead. Whatever you like to call the pattern is irrelevant. What is important is that you can identify the pattern as it signals possible distribution and reversal of the prior trend.
Some Background on Chart Patterns:
Charles Dow first introduced Dow Theory in his writings in the Wall Street Journal well over 100 years ago. Dow Theory is the origin of trend following. In 1948 Edwards and Magee introduced Technical Analysis of Stock Trends. This book expanded on the work done by Dow and introduced chart patterns as a system to identify changes to the existing trend. In 1997 John J. Murphy introduced Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets which is considered by many to be the definitive work on trend analysis and chart patterns first introduced by Dow and refined by Edwards and Magee. If you're not familiar with these works I highly suggest looking into each.
Identifying the Pattern:
1) There must be a trend in place. If the H&S pattern is a topping pattern then the prior trend must be an uptrend. If the H&S pattern is reversed and is a bottoming pattern then the prior trend must be a down trend.
2) As the pattern unfolds and the peaks are formed, a clearly defined support line called the neckline must be present.
3) Volume will confirm the pattern. Volume should be decreasing at the peak of each point in the left shoulder, head, and right shoulder.
Confirming the Pattern:
1) The existing trendline is broken.
2) The neckline is broken.
3) The neckline will now act as resistance. (Often, but not always the price will try to reclaim the neckline shortly after breaking.)
The Pattern is Invalid:
1) If volume is not receding at each peak then the technician should be skeptical of the validity of the pattern.
2) The right and left shoulder should be similar in height. Often times they are not, if in doubt use volume as your indicator.
3) Either the neckline or the prior trendline is retaken as support.
Forecasting a Price Target:
Using the measured move technique, the distance from the peak of the head to the neckline can be forecasted from the spot of the neckline being broken downwards. This distance can be used as a minimum downside price target.
Example:
This is an Apple Daily Line Chart from November 2020 to March 2021. All the important elements of a Head and Shoulders Reversal Pattern are evident.
1) A prior trend was in place.
2) The formation of the left shoulder, head, and right shoulder.
3) Retreating volume at each peak.
4) Breaking of the trendline.
5) Breaking of the Neckline.
6) Price tries to recapture the Neckline but fails.
7) Minimum downside target is reached.
Conclusion:
Pattern recognition is as much of an art form as it is a science. As technicians we want to draw our lines with fat crayons vs thin pencils. Patterns don't always follow the text books. The key is to understand the main tenants of each pattern and try to spot their formations before they confirm.
Thanks for taking the time to read this. Good luck to all!
<<Weinstein Stage Analysis>>Hey folks! Welcome to my post on Weinstein Stage Analysis on TSM.
Background: Stage Analysis is a topic Stan Weinstein discussed in his book from 1988 “Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets“, where he details his classic four stage breakout method for identifying the best quality stocks to buy and sell in any market environment.
Stage 1- The basing:
Stage 1 occurs when a stock bottoms and forms a horizontal consolidation. New shareholders replace the old ones, in turn replacing fear with hope that will eventually turn into greed.
Accumulation tends to speed up near the end of the pattern, triggering a set of higher-than-average volume spikes that show enthusiastic buying interest. On-balance volume (OBV) and other accumulation-distribution tools bottom out with price and turn higher, reflecting the newly bullish technical outlook. Watch closely when these indicators show greater upside than price action within the base, because this can signal an impending breakout that sets off Stage 2.
Stage 2 - The Advance:
Stage 2 occurs when the price has broken out of the consolidation in stage 1. It triggers a bullish uptrend where the price stays above the 30 Week MA. You will also notice that the stock will outperform the S&P 500 during this stage.
Stage 3 - Consolidation:
When the price of the stock crosses below the 30 Week MA, it is safe to assume that stage 3 is happening where the price is in a long consolidation. The price of the stock fails to reach higher highs and the stock tend to underperform the S&P 500.
Stage 4 - Decline:
Stage 4 typically occurs when the price of the stock breaks below a long term support during the stage 3 consolidation. It usually starts with high volume and ends in low volume. Short positions taken early in a downtrend carry higher risk and higher reward than late in the decline.
Conclusion:
Stan Weinstein's stage analysis is a very powerful tool for longer term trading (mainly on the weekly chart) and risk management. Another great example using the Weinstein stage analysis is PYPL where you can clearly see the stock following the stage analysis patterns.
The ART of profit booking I am posting a chart for educational purpose using S&p 500 index with heikinAshi candle and elliott waves
trading is an art of buying at low and selling at high, looks easy to do? if so why more people loosing and big players minting money?
trading is a money making process when the crowd has extreme interest in one direction(buy /sell).
when everyone in the street is buying, it is the RIGHT time to sell.
The ART of profit booking without harming buyers(they don't know what's happening) is described in the chart.
Because if they knew in advance then to whom the seller has to sell?
Actually speaking the BULLS AT THE BEGINING OF THE TREND NOW BECOME BEARS!
SELVAM BE, MBA
option trader
AUDNZD Trade ReviewHey guys,
As I sat down this morning to do my trade review from yesterday, I figured why not do it on video for you guys to watch and see.
This is a good opportunity to have a look at my initial analysis, how I managed the trade through-out the day and how we finished up.
If you don't already do trade reviews I highly recommend you do, as it can be a great way to familiarise yourself with the emotions you feel through-out your trades.
If you enjoyed the content leave a like, if the feedback is good I will continue to make these!
BIG SHORT STRUCTUREToday we will consider a frequently occurring formation that can bring you big profits.
Beginning
It all starts after breaking through the resistance line of the lateral movement.
Lateral movement is nothing but the accumulation of force for subsequent takeoff.
Upward movement
After the breakdown, the price goes up, creating new highs, correcting from time to time.
All this continues until the last peak is formed – the head.
Head
The head is characterized by a large price rise in the beginning, after which there is a sharp drop.
The fall is characterized by large volumes that grow until the breakdown of the left shoulder line.
Right shoulder.
After that, the formation of the right shoulder begins.
In this situation, the price may break through the line of the 50-day moving average several times.
The ray point of entry.
After several breakthroughs of the moving average, the price will make a dash down.
The ideal entry point will be the last breakout of the moving average.
It is very difficult to determine and enter the position at the ideal point, so you can try to enter after breaking the neck line or a little higher.
Conclusion
Such situations are common in all markets, giving a huge opportunity to make a profit if everything is done correctly. Sometimes the price can fall even below the sideways movement that started it all. Don't forget about the risks, good luck!
-------------------
Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with Like.
Thanks for your support!
⚡️NAS100 - Breakdown of the Two Sniper ‘Shorts’⚡️Hello Traders :)
- I haven’t been posting trades lately but I’ve been trading
- So here I will post a breakdown of the two Effortless trades I took on NAS100
⚡️Let me break it down⚡️
❗️❗️Reminder when trading NAS100❗️❗️
▫️Use Pending orders
▫️Take Partial Profits
▫️Trail your Stops
▫️Minimum Risk to reward 1 : 3..NB. NAS can give you up to 1:10
First time frame was the Daily
♦️Downtrend confirmed by a lower low
♦️Price reached a Strong Resistance Area
♦️Strong downtrend structure
Second time frame was the 4 hour
♦️Supply Area on 4hr
♦️Several touches on the strong resistance level
♦️Lower low structure for downtrend
Third time frame was on the 1 hour
♦️Strong Bearish engulfing candle used for Entry
♦️Lower Lows made at a strong Resistance Level
♦️Weakening formation of candles as they approach the strong level
Hope you guys learnt a thing or two
Kindly leave a like and tell me what you think about these trades and where NAS might be heading to next
Stay Blessed!
Slick⚡️
BTCUSDT BULKOWSKI'S BIG MHi everyone. I want to show you a idea about the BIG M pattern on BTC. This pattern Is variant of the Double Tops as a M with tall peaks and average metrics accord to Thomas N. BULKOWSKI as descript in the book CHART PATTERNS: AFTER THE BUY. In parallel BTC Is on move to a drop of 17% average after a pullback.
Example of Shorting SPY w PSI and comparison w RSIThis is an example of Shorting SPY at the High and a comparison of RSI and Price Strength Index (PSI).
AMEX:SPY made a great upside move towards 450 and then 453 on a valid strong move after a bounce of higher Low.
Then, it made a pullback to 450 and made a retest of 453 to go higher.
Price action w PSI analysis
On 4H chart, at the second test of 453, buyer is significantly weaker because it did not even break or test previous High of the PSI 4H. PSI 4H had already shown obvious divergence even before the retest of 453, and when it retest 453 and failed, this give confidence to Short.
Now on Daily, at the second test to 453, PSI shows that the move is not even strong at all. It actually made a lower High on PSI, now confirms the divergence shown on lower time frame 4h. This gives another confidence boost to Short.
With these confluence, this gives a good confidence to Short.
Price action w RSI analysis
On 4H chart, the RSI 4H appears to look good for a push to break that 453 and go into overbought level. Even at the retest of 453, while price action shows that rejection (Red Topping Tail candle), RSI however still looks somewhat okay because it still holding on above 60 and near to previous Low.
On the Daily, RSI is showing that it is still in the direction of the trend to push higher.
To conclude, this is not looking clear, there is a difference of information on 4H and Daily. While RSI on 4H does indeed shows some weakness, RSI on Daily still going strong on uptrend. This does not gives confidence to Short.
PSI vs RSI
While both are useful, PSI do appear to have better clarity of strength/momentum in comparison to RSI.
DISCLAIMER: Nothing in this content should be interpreted as financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any sort of security, investment, currencies or assets. This is for educational purposes only.
MARKET ALPHA - HOW TO FIND TRENDLINESIt's extremely important to look at price action where you are looking to place your trendline.
What I like to first start off is with looking at the areas where we have seen either gap up or gap downs. Starting at the most significant relative area to my analysis, I will continue that line, scoping out other gap areas if within reason. Some are very obvious. This one was one of the easier ones to spot.
I would recommend going over this chart and looking to see what it was buyers AND sellers were thinking at that moment. Would a skeptic seller have to become a buyer? Could buyers be running out of cash or is there enough liquidity to keep the stock down? This is where technical analysis comes in. It helps you understand the more important levels easier and faster.
I hope this helps.
Enjoy!
NYSE:AMC
The Safest Way to Short The Stock MarketIn this video we explain Inverse ETFs as a tool to gain short exposure to the stock market. These can be used as a tool to profit directly from market or as a hedge to protect your stock portfolio in times of market volatility.
Let us know your thoughts in the comments below! Have you ever invested using one of these ETFs?
Benefits of short term investment📊 Benefits of Short Term Investment 📊
━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🔴 Short-term investing offers flexibility to the investor as they do not need to wait for the security to mature in order to get cash. On the other hand, long-term investments can be liquidated by selling in the secondary market, but the investor earns lower profits.
🔴 Investors can make substantial profits in a very short amount of time.
🔴 It is less risky as money invested per transaction is substantially lower.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━
HOW TO: Center Of Gravity OscillatorIf I could only have one indicator it would need to be versatile. It would need to able to confirm trends, highlight pivots and reversals but most of all it would need to expose epic entries. Lucky there is such an indicator... The Center of Gravity Oscillator (COG).
The COG is yet another masterpiece created by John Ehlers. It is essentially zero lag and enables clear identification of turning points. This indicator is a result of Ehlers research into adaptive filters and was published in an article on page 20 of the May 2002 issue of Stocks and Commodities Magazine. According to the Tradingview docs "The cog (center of gravity) is an indicator based on statistics and the Fibonacci golden ratio."
1. Breakout Trading
Breakout trading is one of the most popular trading strategies and rightly so, there is not much better than watching those candles fly to the moon.
Trend lines and wedges can be made by connecting 2 or more pivot points (as shown above). When the oscillator crosses the trend line traders can expect “boom” like explosions in price action.
Above is an example of a breakout.
Below I’ve marked out some breakouts on 1 hr BTC chart.
Epic breakouts can be found by drawing a trend line along major pivot points. The major pivots should be easy to spot as they stick out above and below the minor pivots. (As shown below on 1 hour chart.)
There are many oscillators that can also pick up breakouts, below are some breakouts marked on the BTC 12 hour chart with my Volatility Oscillator.
Smaller breakouts can be found by drawing a fan from major pivot to minor pivots.
Ive marked out the most obvious breakouts on the ETH Daily chart below.
Along the way I found some LSMA pumps, which leads me to the next strategy…
2. LSMA Breakouts.
Least Squares Moving Average is my favourite moving average and I incorporate it in one way or another with most of my scripts. To understand a LSMA breakout have a look at the LSMA 21 line on the chart below. As the candles cross the line it breaks out.
The default setting for the LSMA line on my COG indicator is 200. This is a great “zero” line and shows general trend. To catch LSMA breakouts I set the COG length to 6 and LSMA length to 6. The LSMA can also be set to 21 to find breakouts and LSMA Pumps (don’t worry, I’ll get to it soon).
Easy to find sweet entries on the BTC 1 hr chart.
3. What is a LSMA pump???
This is when a LSMA line pulls back and crosses another line for just a few bars before recrossing into a boom. Ive marked out a few LSMA pumps on the chart above. I like to use COG set at length of 6 and LSMA set to 21 for trading hourly to daily charts.
4. Trading Reversal Patterns.
If you are not familiar with reversal patterns such as double tops, double bottoms or head and shoulders then it would be a good idea to look into it. These are fundamentals of reading charts.
The COG is great for trading these patters too.
Above shows reversal patterns marked out.
5. Previous High/Low Strategy
This is another chart reading fundamental. This strategy can be used to find solid long and short entries. He is an example below using no indicators.
This example is a down trend that turns into an up trend. The first entry is a short found when price is unable to beat previous high. The second entry is a long. This is the confirmation of the up trend. Notice how the the low pivot point is higher than previous pivot. Next a short reveals itself again as price is unable to beat previous highs. The next long entry is made as up trend is reconfirmed by a low pivot forming higher than previous low pivot. Lastly another short as price is unable to beat previous high.
Now to apply this to the COG…
Above shows a nice long and short on the major pivots. The first trade is a long. As the major low pivot is made it does not break previous major pivot low and thus is a great long entry. Price then breaks out and forms a major high pivot point which does not break previous major pivot high making a great short entry.
The next example shows trading on continuations of trends.
A major Pivot is made. Long entries are found every time the the lows keep getting higher. Often these are LSMA pumps.
Above is another example of finding solid entries.
Here I have marked the entries on a 1 hour ETH chart using this strategy. It is great for swing trading.
6. Tuning your indicator.
Indicator settings should depend on what timeframe and what trades you are looking for. Its always a great idea to play with the settings and get the signals as accurate as possible.
COG lengths to try: 3-6, 9-14, 21-27, 50-55, 100, 200.
LSMA lengths to try: 2,6,9,11,19,21,25,27,32,50,100,150,200
In the indicator settings there is an option for smoothing. I usually have this turned on.
The centre of gravity oscillator is one of the most underrated indicators out. It gives solid signals and Im sure there is plenty more that I have not mentioned here. I am currently working on including all these signals into the indicator so you can set alerts or run bots. So far it looks like a Christmas tree with all those signals and needs work….
If you have any questions or ideas please drop a comment below. I am always keen to talk shop.
You can find my COG indicator here:
Join me on Bybit! They have the lowest fees and best servers. It’s free to join and we both get $20 if you use my referral link.
partner.bybit.com
Thanks for the support and happy trading!
EURUSD Recent Price Action| Identifying a break of a key levelEvening Traders,
In this educational post I will analyse how a price action level breaks and puts in a retest.
Assessing the chart, we have a clear Resistance on the left that was breached with an impulse break. The level was retested and confirmed as support with an S/R Flip Retest.
This shows strength in the price action; however volume was not evident, leading to a bearish expansion back below the level.
EURUSD eventually retraced and broke the resistance again with a strong impulse and is currently trading above the level.
For this breakout to be valid on the retest, we need to see an increase in the volume profile. This will signify a true break as incoming volume will lead to an expansion.
I hope this educational peace helped,
Thank you for following my work!