The S&P 500 has been on a tear in 2019, rising nearly 30%, from low of the year to high it has surpassed the 30% growth mark. However, there has been a prevalent divergence between bond yields in the US and the SPX, which are correlated to move the same way. This means there could be a convergence in the near future to get back to the "regular" pattern. Over the...
I've looked into the DJI and the DAX because they are connected. I also considered events affecting the Hong Kong index. In the text below, I consider China's 'nuclear option'. Overall I'd say the probability is greater for the south on these indices (from this point in time). But caution - because there is a residual probability for the north and I can't know...
US treasury yields and the S&P 500 have a positive correlation. The two usually move lockstep to a certain degree and when they diverge, they don't stay divergent for too long. This time, however, at the beginning of 2019, the divergence occurred and has continued for nearly 12 months now. The idea behind the correlation is that bond prices are typically...
The recent upside in the bond market has been in tandem with the upside in the S&P 500. The move higher in bonds is largely due to the lower rates in monetary policy. Which should not directly affect long-term bonds by much but they have had some effect. Over the past three months, Bonds have gone down while the S&P 500 has made a lot of gains. The 30-year bonds...
Hello traders! Today we will talk about the bond and stock market and their correlations. As you can see, US and German Bonds are moving more or less together and the same thing is with US and German stocks. Of course, there are no perfect correlations, but overall looking they are in positive correlation. At the same time bonds and stocks are also more or less...
Of course I've been shouting about Gold and Cryptos before. Why? Why?... some people wanna know what's going on. (TURN UP volume on speakers. Microsoft updates caused a problem) I posted on the big de-dollarisation war that was happening in the background months ago. I was also looking at the 'war index' in Lockheed Martin. The smart money has already moved...
Following government bond yields can be crucial to understanding the underlying price action of banks stocks. Take this example of Canadian bonds and stocks. We can clearly see how, following a steady expansion in yields of various maturities, a trend break where bonds suddenly appreciated (yields go down when bond prices go up) the results were a change in trend...
Hello. I noticed alot of traders new of course but also veterans do not know their basics that well. I myself, needed to get everything a little more clear in my head, there are still a few grey area's, but after making (and after you read) this idea, it will all be much more clear. The TradingView community, in october 2017 consisted of over 3 million monthly...
Earlier this year I pointed out how leveraged loans are increasingly in a precarious position as underlying economic fundamentals deteriorate around the world. Another way of measuring the risk premium is to observe the performance spread between the leverage loan bonds (orange line) and high yield bonds (candles). Both are in logarithmic scale.
It is important to understand that primary trends of stocks, bonds, and commodities are determined by the attitude of investors during unfolding of events in the business cycle. An understanding of the interrelationship of credit, equity, and commodity markets provides a useful framework for identifying major reversals in each. MARKET MOVEMENTS AND BUSINESS...
What's up. Well DAX peaked last year S&P500 and Nikkei225 kept going up. The "Make America Great Again" maybe. Big "Dump-Ala-Trump" coming soon maybe. That's what bonds telling us maybe Will Crypto go into deep freeze and bitcoin go down by another half (50%) Time will tell. No hurry. Note these are Monthly charts
SELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY Financial Market Introduction 101 a) Market participants Market Participants include those parties that are involved in the operations of investment companies. Their control in the market is necessary and they should be well aware of the changes in the market. 1. Brokers and dealers handle trade activities between the...
The US fiscal deficit for the fiscal year 2018 was just reported to have increased to $779 billion, or approximately 4% of GDP for the period. As Reuters notes, the deficit has been the largest reported since 2012, during a time when elections were coming up and the economy was still at a low interest rate environment and perhaps also in need for more government...