Commodities - What are they and how do they work?This article is continuation to the series of educational articles on basic fundamentals in regards to particular asset classes.
If you have not read our previous article on stocks, feel welcome to do so:
In order to read the article click on the chart above.
Commodities are basic goods used in commerce that are interchangeable with other goods of the same type. They are usually refined or used for production of other goods. Commodities can be traded privately or on public market exchange where they must meet specified minimum standards like quality, weight, type, etc. They are great speculative investments which tend to be ruled by cycles and interaction between supply and demand.
Classification of commodities
In order to distinguish between particular characteristics of each group, commodities can be categorized according to their type and origin. Commodities that are mined or extracted are called hard commodities (oil, gold, silver, etc.) while commodities that are grown are called soft commodities (wheat, rice, livestock, etc.). Though, commodities can be sorted even further into smaller sub-categories. For example, metals can be divided into industrial metals (copper, nickel, iron, etc.) and precious metals (silver, gold and platinum). Additionally, the agricultural sector can be divided into livestock and grains; and the energy sector can be divided into oil, coal and natural gas. Other commodity sectors can be subcategorized in the similar fashion.
Raw materials
Primary commodities which are unprocessed and serve as input for production of other goods are also called raw materials. Raw materials involve, for example, crude oil, copper, iron, wheat and corn.
Commodities exchanges include:
Asia Pacific Exchange (APEX) - Singapore
Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) - United States
Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) - United States
Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) - China
London Metal Exchange (LME) - United Kingdom
National Commodity Exchange Limited (NCEL) - United States
New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) - United States
Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGEX) - China
Correlation
Some commodities tend to show correlation with other assets. Such correlation can be positive or negative. Positive correlation means that two assets behave in a similar way. For example, when gold rises then mining stocks rise as well. Contrary to that, negative correlation describes such behavior in which assets move in the opposite direction to each other. For example, when USD/EUR rises then gold in USD tends to decline.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration above shows the monthly chart of USOIL. It also shows USDEUR (orange line). Negative correlation between these two assets is observable. When USDEUR falls then USOIL tends to rise.
Participants, spot market and derivatives market
Commodities are great anti-inflationary assets which are often sought by producers and speculators alike. Producers tend to use commodities with purpose to hedge their risk; furthermore, they often demand delivery of physical goods. Speculators, instead, try to exploit volatile price movements in commodities with the goal to profit from it. Commodities can be bought and sold through the spot market or derivatives market. Spot market simply means buying or selling cash positions while derivatives market involves investing in futures, options, ETFs, etc.
Seasonality
Some commodities are prone to seasonal cycles which means that they tend to show the same or very similar behavior based on a particular calendar season. For example, in some countries, production of a certain crop may vary during the wet season and drought season. Similarly, heating prices tend to increase during the harsh winter as opposed to during the hot summer. Concept of seasonality is also applicable to commercial and industrial trends.
DISCLAIMER: This content serves solely educational purposes.
Crude Oil Brent
Education excerpt: OPECThe Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is a permanent intergovernmental organization with main goal to coordinate and unify the petroleum policies of its member countries. This pertains mainly to securing fair and stable pricing in the oil market; efficient and regular supply of petroleum to consuming nations and fair return on capital to the producing countries.
The OPEC was established in Baghdad, Iraq in 1960 by five countries. Founding countries were: Iraq, Islamic Republic of Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. One year later the organization was joined by Qatar in 1961. After that Indonesia and Libya followed in 1962. United Arab Emirates joined the cartel in 1967 and Algeria in 1969. Then Nigeria became member of the OPEC in 1971, Ecuador in 1973 and Gabon in 1975. Few decades later, Angola joined the OPEC in 2007, Equatorial Guinea in 2017 and Congo in 2018.
Ecuador suspended its membership in 1962. However, it rejoined the cartel in 2007. But then again in 2009 Ecuador withdrew its membership from OPEC. Similarly, Indonesia suspended its membership in 2009 and rejoined the cartel in 2016 only to leave it again in 2016. Gabon also suspended its membership in 1995. Although, Gabon reactivated its membership in 2016. Qatar was the last country to terminate its membership in 2019.
Current members:
1. Iraq
2. Iran
3. Kuwait
4. Saudi Arabia
5. Venezuela
6. Libya
7. United Arab Emirates
8. Algeria
9. Nigeria
10. Gabon
11. Angola
12. Equatorial Guinea
13. Congo
The OPEC's executive organ is called the Secretariat and it is run by the Secretary General. Secretariat was originally established in 1961. It also functions as headquarters for the organization. In the beginning, OPEC had its headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland for five years. However, OPEC's headquarters were moved to Vienna, Austria in 1965. Executive organ is responsible for implementation of all resolutions passed by the Conference. Secretariat also conducts research and fullfills all decisions made by the Board of Governeros.
The Secretary General is the representative of the OPEC who simultaneously acts as Executive of the Secretariat. The Secretary General is electable role and its term last three years. Although, there is possibility to renew this term once. The Secretary General is assisted by the Office of the Secretary general and several other officers and staff members of the OPEC. The Office of the Secretary general helps the executive chief of the Secretariat to maintain efficient relations with relevant international organizations and governments. Another important organ of the organization is the Legal Office which supervises legal matters of the Secretariat and provides legal advice to the Secretary General. In addition to that, there is also the Research Division that consists of three departments: Data Services, Energy Studies and Petroleum Studies. The Research Division is responsible for conducting research with regards to the energy and related matters. Infrastructure and services are provided by the Support Services Division.
OPEC Fund
The OPEC Fund for International Development is international finance development institution that was established in 1976. It consists of 12 members: Algeria, Ecuador, Gabon, Indonesia, IR Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. Its purpose is to provide financial help to the developing countries and support advancement in these low-income and middle-income countries.
Disclaimer: This content serves solely educational purpose.
You Can't Predict Which Trade Will Succeed. How To Deal?This is why I prefer to open many small positions - you never know which one will be successful!
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How to understand price action.
It is very easy to read price action if you have a reference point. These support/resistance lines are there to help you read where the buyers and sellers are likely to make a stand.
You can also think of these indicators as moving pivot points .
MasterChartsTrading Price Action Indicators show good price levels to enter or exit a trade.
The Blue indicator line serves as a Bullish Trend setter.
If your instrument closes above the Blue line, we think about going Long (buying).
For commodities and Forex, when your trading instrument closes below the Red line, we think about Shorting (selling).
For Stocks, I prefer to use the Yellow line as my Bearish Trend setter (on Daily charts ). A stock has to close below the Yellow line first, then rally towards the Red line and top out there. This is where I would short it.
Be sure to hit that Follow button! Please find me on social networks via the link on my profile page for more ideas from @MasterCharts!
CRUDE OIL (WTI) Weakening Market & Consolidation
Crude oil is becoming weaker and weaker.
though many fundamentalists promised a quick return to "normal" price levels after the lockdown removal,
it looks like things are much more complicated than that.
if you are a swing trader and you are looking for an opportunity to jump in in the market,
I guess it is not the best moment.
for the entire month, we could not set a new high.
ATR drops as crazy and volatility is missing:)
let the market start moving.
let it pick the direction and then just act accordingly.
swaps are now very expensive on oil, so no need to incur these losses.
Brent Crude Updated Map - More Down 32.90/29.70Current consolidation is a classic flat within double three WXY (white labels).
Which is in its turn is the wave ((X)) of the larger yellow degree - the junction between ((W)) and ((Y)).
After it gets completed another drop would follow to hit the blue box between 32.90 (38.2% Fib) and 29.70 (50% Fib).
WTI updated map - could be ending diagonal 5 of (C)The wave 4 that I was looking to unfold before could be over long ago as simple flat.
The further seesaw structure that already distracted so many traders from the crude could be an ending diagonal wave 5 of (5) of ((C)).
After it gets finished we could see a drop in 3 waves retracement.
CRUDE OIL (WTI) STRUCTURE ANALYSIS
hey guys,
crude keeps growing steadily!
the price has easily gone through 18.5 - 20.5 resistance and now it turned to support.
our next key daily resistance is 28.6 - 30.6 zone.
look for a reversal formation within this area to short.
in case of a further bullish continuation, the second resistance will be 34.0 - 36.0 area.
if this zone will be reached, the previously mentioned resistance will turn to support as well.
the safest trading is always done on key levels.
so pay attention to the price action when any of the key zones are reached.
good luck!
Crude clone called Euro?This also needs to be understand by those who think that are trading just euro...Funds lock their positions in EURUSD with those in crude oil!
Understanding the OIL, EUR/USD Correlation
Read - chigrl1.wordpress.com
Most oil exporting countries trade assets in USD, meaning, these countries receive a significant portion of USD inflows from the proceeds of these sales. Thus the foreign currency reserve balances of these oil exporting countries, in a sense, is broadly reflected by the price of oil. We can see this as reflected in the chart below. Up to 2014, reserves increased notably, and then declined considerably as the price of oil fell.
However, data also shows that they invest part of their reserves in EUR, as they sell a large share of their production to the Eurozone.
Thus, when the price of oil falls, this means that a smaller portion of USD is transferred to EUR, thus contributing to a depreciation of the currency. Inversely, when the price of oil increases, a larger portion is transferred to EUR, contributing to the appreciation of the currency. For this reason, many funds lock their positions in EUR/USD with those in crude oil.
Therefore, it is no coincidence that COT data shows crude oil and EUR in lock step.
CRUDE OIL (WTI) KEEP CALM! TREND IS STILL BEARISH!
hey guys,
reading news outlets and ideas on tradingview, the forecasts are all bullish right now!
people are urged to buy from any level based on the fundamental news.
be very careful! though we truly see a dramatic shift and strong bullish rally this week,
don't forget that technically the trend remains bearish!
moreover, currently, the price is trading on a key structure resistance level and for now
buyers could not break above that and we see a negative reaction.
the next safe opportunity to buy will come only after a bullish breakout of the underlined resistance,
for now just patiently watch the reaction of the market.
it is still possible that next week we may see a perfect signal to short.
so no rush right now!
good luck and have a great weekend!
#EURNOK and #UKBRENT #UKOIL CorrelationWhen we look at correlations in charting, we sometimes see certain #FX pairs are correlated to a #commodity or #index, in this instance I am giving you an example of #EURNOK vs #UKOIL #BRENT. These charts can help you make distinctions in the trend of the commodity, so when we see a #bullish EURNOK, you want to be looking a trades that are bearish Brent/UKOil, again this is not tick for tick, so, you will use confirmation like trendlines, underlying fundamentals etc. But you can clearly see the correlations. I suggest you try this with other markets, like #USDNOK #WTI #USDJPY #NIKKEI #SPX #10YR