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ECONOMIC UNITED STATES GDP compared with Other NationsThis chart illustrates the GNP of the USA compared with others over a period of several decades. The USA is on a much slower trajectory of growth than all the other countries on the chart except Russia and Ukraine. This includes the Eurozone, China, India, Mexico, and others. This trend has been in place for decades. It makes for a poor prognosis for the future of the US economically, no matter how much our politicians and other influencers try to hide this.
ECONOMICS:USGNPEducation
by AwesomeAvani
1
US02Y­-US10Y 🎯Wells Fargo Chart of the Week 🎯💰🤔Hey Fam. 😊🙏Just wanted to share this information with you all.. I found it very interesting.. This was a chart of week that Wells Fargo shared on there site. I thought it was interesting how they saw a 4 week inversion roughly 43 weeks on average in regards to our last seven Recessions before they happened (Shaded Areas on chart) Before a US recession officially started.. which is roughly about 10 months..🎯💰🤔👌🙏😊
TVC:US02YEducation
by robinstallsforyou2
Ascending ChannelKEY TAKEAWAYS An ascending channel is used in technical analysis to show an uptrend in a security’s price. It is formed from two positive sloping trend lines drawn above and below a price series depicting resistance and support levels, respectively. Channels are used commonly in technical analysis to confirm trends and identify breakouts and reversals. Understanding Ascending Channels Within an ascending channel, price does not always remain entirely contained within the pattern’s parallel lines but instead shows areas of support and resistance that traders can use to set stop-loss orders and profit targets. A breakout above an ascending channel can signal a continuation of the move higher, while a breakdown below an ascending channel can indicate a possible trend change. Ascending channels show a clearly defined uptrend. Traders can swing trade between the pattern’s support and resistance levels or trade in the direction of a breakout or breakdown. Trading the Ascending Channel Support and Resistance: Traders could open a long position when a stock's price reaches the ascending channel’s lower trend line and exit the trade when price nears the upper channel line. A stop-loss order should be placed slightly below the lower trend line to prevent losses if the security’s price abruptly reverses. Traders who use this strategy should ensure there is enough distance between the pattern’s parallel lines to set an adequate risk/reward ratio. For example, if a trader places a $5 stop, the width of the ascending channel should be a minimum $10 to allow for a 1:2 risk/reward ratio. Breakouts: Traders could buy a stock when its price breaks above the upper channel line of an ascending channel. It is prudent to use other technical indicators to confirm the breakout. For example, traders could require that a significant increase in volume accompanies the breakout and that there is no overhead resistance on higher time frame charts. Breakdowns: Before traders take a short position when price breaks below the lower channel line of an ascending channel, they should look for other signs that show weakness in the pattern. Price failing to reach the upper trend line frequently is one such warning sign. Traders should also look for negative divergence between a popular indicator, such as the relative strength index (RSI), and price. For instance, if a stock’s price is making higher highs within the ascending channel, but the indicator is making lower highs, this suggests upward momentum is waning. Envelope Channels Envelope channels are another popular channel formation that can incorporate both descending and ascending channel patterns. Envelope channels are typically used to chart and analyze a security’s price movement over a longer period of time. Trend lines can be based on moving averages or highs and lows over specified intervals. Envelope channels can use similar trading strategies to both descending and ascending channels. This analysis will typically be based on a stock price movement over an extended period of time while ascending and descending channels can be beneficial for charting a security’s price immediately after a reversal.
Education
by Saeed966
EURUSD: Year's High AHEAD!!! Key Levels & Scenarios EURUSD is approaching a key daily structure resistance. 1.15 is year's high, short rally from that level was just crazy in march. we don't know how the market will react this time, so we must be prepared for both scenarios: in case of a bullish violation of the underlined resistance (daily higher high higher close) the pair will most likely keep growing. next midterm resistances will be: 1.155 1.160 if the structure will be respected (some reversal formation on lower timeframes) the market may retrace. closest midterm supports will be: 1.137 1.130 of course, bias right now is bullish, but it is too late to jump in. let's patiently wait and see whats gonna happen.
Education
by VasilyTrader
18
USDCAD: Key Weekly Levels USDCAD is falling like crazy. here are the strongest key weekly support levels to catch a pullback: support 1 - 1.33 - 1.335 area based on a major rising trendline and a horizontal structure support 2 - 1.30 level based on a horizontal structure Closest key resistance: 1.37 - 1.38 area based on a horizontal structure also, many questions about the current price level 1.35 it is also a strong structure level, however, the reaction from it will be most likely quite limited so I have just neglected it on purpose. however, if you see a decent opportunity on that, why not to try to catch it)
Education
by VasilyTrader
14
EURUSD: Key Levels EURUSD started a strong bullish movement. Multiple strong resistances are ahead. Key levels based on 3 days chart analysis: Resistance 1 - 1.11 level based on a resistance line of a major channel + horizontal 3 days/daily structure Resistance 2 - 1.12 level based on a horizontal weekly/3 days/daily structure Resistance 3 - 1.15 levels based on a horizontal weekly/3 day/daily structure + it is this year's high Closest supports are: Support 1 - 1.0975 level based on a recently broken daily structure Support 2 - 1.08 level based on a horizontal 3 days/daily structure pay attention to the lower timeframe once the market reaches one of these levels to catch a pullback or reverse
Education
by VasilyTrader
12
Why Supply and Demand Works (US Dollar Index DXY example)The real reason why supply and demand works. For the US dollar index its not hard to read there was a massive drop from the big red candle (creating a supply area) and it is now making its way up to the initial price drop area. Based on Elliott wave pull back method we can foresee the 5 waves almost being played out except that we will still have to wait for no higher high and V formation before taking the sell. But have you ever wonder why the sell will work? If you are so confident that your trade is going to work, it WILL work. When I was a high school student at age of 16 I opened up my first business selling GPS units. I branded my GPS as "Stevu", dreaming one day I might be competing with New Zealand's GPS tycoon Navman. At first there was only myself selling GPS, I could sell it for $300 NZ dollar per unit. However, soon I realised that other people start selling GPS as well. For $300 NZ dollar per unit no one would buy from me anymore. The person next door would sell it for $250, if I still want my business running I would then have to reduce it to $200. Not long after my new price I noticed that 10 more people start selling it and they've set their new price to $60 per unit. Given that it cost me to buy each unit (including shipping) $55, there is no way I could make money anymore. So my first business got shut down and I had to work for KFC to cook chicken for two years. The same logic and concept apply to Forex, Stock, Commodities. Everything in our life is related with supply and demand, including every single business. Currency is a essentially a product. When a product is in demand, the price rises, if the same product is over supplied, the price will drop. The big bearish red candle is revealed to us as "the market has over supply of US dollar, there is way more sellers than buyers". In order for the sellers to sell product they will have to reset competitive prices for buyer to buy US dollar. These sellers in real life are considered as "Goldman, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, other investment banks and even hedge funds". These banks would put say for instance one billion worth of sell limit orders at the price of 97.44. But there aren't enough buyers to digest them all at once, only 1/3 of the entire orders would create a massive unbalance of buying and selling forces. the price then drops as indicated on chart. When the price climb its way back to similar level (around 97.44), we all agree that there are still 2/3 orders being placed at 97.44, which is why every time the price reach 97.44 it bounces back (not a single pipe more). This is a good indication that this supply area is very robust. If you are going to do the sell, do you all agree that it would be much safer to sell with these investment banks (institutions)? Of course the answer is yes. But before that We must accept that there must be a V formation to take out the buyers, in this chart it is revealed as the pink area. On the contrary there is also buying orders being set at such price. You will HAVE TO wait patiently until these orders gets consumed before taking the sell. I hope these explains the whole logic. If you have questions or doubt please feel free to leave any comment. Good Luck Steven
TVC:DXYEducation
by StevenFu
7
US MIDTERM ELECTION IN THE SPOTLIGHTNovember 5, 2018 ·Andria Pichidi On Tuesday 6 November, US will proceed with the off-year elections, occurring every 4 years, before the presidential elections. The particular mid elections are expected to affect the markets as the outcome of the election will be important for the future of the President and for the control of the Congress. As the Republicans control the 54.4% of the House and 51 out of 98 seats in the Senate, it will be interesting to see whether Republicans manage to keep the control of the Congress. The control of Congress will certainly have a significant impact to any future fiscal policy judgements, as each of the parties could have the power to pass their legislation proposals or to vote against opposing legislation agendas. Therefore, Tuesday's voting will have without a doubt an impact on equity markets. Based on the history of US Presidency, we rarely saw so far the Republicans holding the control of the House and Senate, and even more rarely to remain in charge after the mid elections. The most of the surveys in the last few months suggest that there is a high risk for Republicans to be deposed, while FiveThirtyEight website gave 80.7% to the Democrats holding the House, and 69% to Republicans of holding the Senate control. From the markets perspective, the US Equity market has been reacting on any outcome of mid elections positively. More precisely, as Rathbones Brothers state, "US equities tend to be rather directionless in the six months before a midterm election, with a little extra volatility. Over the subsequent six, equities tend to rise steadily". In the past three midterm elections, where Congress' control changed hands either overall or part of it, the US equities remained on the upside movement. This can be confirmed also in the USA500 diagram Therefore, it seems that in general mid elections results, i.e. which party losses/gains/keeps the control of the Congress, are not directly correlated to the US Equities or the global market. Taking as an example the 2006 elections where Democrats took the full control of the Congress with a Republican President, and US remaining in an upside trend. Similarly to USA500, the US Dollar has not been affected from its prior-election direction. However, despite the historical performance of US equities and the US dollar, if we turn back in politics and the current US economic performance, it is not unlikely to see any extraordinary movements in the market in case that Democrats retake the control of the house. Based on the fact that US economic growth is doing extremely well in the past year, a democratic sweep of Congress could have a negative impact on US equities. Meanwhile, if Democrats manage to gain the control of both house and Senate, then it is likely to see US equities facing an even stronger negative momentum. In this case, the hopes of a democratic member to win the 2020 elections will rise, while there are risks of legislation changes from Democrats ( i.e. reduction in corporate tax, changes in budget balance) or block of presidential appointments. Hence this could have a direct impact on US economy and of course US stocks, which have been boosted from Pres. Trump’s tax plan. On the fiscal policy perspective, Democrats as they already mention in the past, they believe on the spending on infrastructure programme. This could help the industrial and material sectors to be boosted.  That could be good news for the industrials and materials sectors of the equity market—and possibly good for bond yields if Congress raises taxes to pay for it. In conclusion, there are 3 scenarios for Tuesday's Congressional election -- a GOP sweep, a Democrat sweep, or a split with Democrats taking back the House and Republicans maintaining their Senate majority. As mentioned, with history and poll on their side, the markets' base case is the split. Meanwhile, the big risk seems to be a potential Democrat victory – in either the House or the Senate, which would severely crimp President Trump's agenda, including fiscal and regulatory issues. President Trump would be unable to enact the remaining policies on his to do list, and hence he may focus all of his attention on the one thing for which he does not require Congressional approval: stoking the trade war. The potential for gridlock in Washington might be taken relatively bullishly by the bond market as increased fiscal stimulus would be in doubt, Wall Street may not like the headwinds to further economic growth. If the Republicans were to maintain control of the legislature, the president would have virtually all policy options open to pursue his domestic and international agendas. That would likely be a more bullish outcome for equities, and further pressure Treasury rates higher, both on beliefs of stronger growth, and a potentially more hawkish FOMC. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer:  This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
TVC:DXYEducation
by HotForex
Late Cycle... or New Cycle? When will it end!Its worth considering what market cycles can tell us about when this run will end. I won't (can't) explain the logic behind cycles, but they appear in every aspect of nature, which includes human behaviour. Seasonality is a well known example. Using the Dow Jones as a barometer, its clear that there were 7 years between the 2002 and 2009 lows. We can't predict exact business cycle lengths, but it would seem from recent history that the next could have ended somewhere between 20015 to 2016. Because this did not appear to happen, investors now worry that a correction is overdue. But what if the cycle low did happen? The market did not in fact move for nearly two years - from January 2015 to the elections in 2016. If true then the next mid-cycle, marking a peak, is towards the end of 2018. Interestingly this coincides with US mid-term elections, and in Europe the exit of the UK from the EU. 2018 could also mark the turning point for 'Quantitative Tightening' and monetary policy. Momentum certainly is driving prices higher for now; reflecting easy financial conditions, low unemployment, and reasonable growth. Behaviourally, a bull market end when 'bears' throw in the towel, and euphoria reigns. For any market, it creates a simple demand/supply imbalance. This cannot be said of the current state, and so we may look to 2018 for the final phase.
DJ:DJIEducation
by MVedra
1
$USD v. $SEK Lesson #4: Geo Construction & Contingencies #forexFriends, A with lessons and demonstrations offered over the past 24 hours (See $USDTRY, $NZDJPY, ... etc), here is another pair worth looking into, not so much from the perspective of a pending geometric completion, but as an example of developing a contingency plan. Here, we are contemplating a short (green scare representing a conservative, prudent entry point, where price BACA < 1-3 Line as its signal) As the Wolfe Wave/Geo would have it, targeting the 1-4 Line comes to sight, and this would be the right thing to consider at this point. However, there is a slight possibility that Point-5 of the completed geometry might in fact be a dud, and that instead, the higher-high structure that build atop this point may perhaps represent the residence of Point-3, of a larger geometric system. As a cautionary measure, I would here recommend the trader to look for added confirmation, such as breaking below prior higher lows (for instance, the one at 8.45, and the one slightly above 8.40), with perhaps partial positioning if that fitted your risk tolerance or strategy style) - See following illustration: Another typical price behavior worth waiting for is the conversion of the 2-4 Line from a support-to-resistance, which means that price would retrace from a decline and hit the underbelly of the formed geometry, offering a validation signal to go short - See suggested dashed pathway in following illustration: OVERALL: In any case, figuring out reasonable and sound price behavior ahead of the game is likely to remove some of the uncertainties that come with this and any other markets - For instance, there still remains the uncertainty whether this pair will ignore the completed geometry, and instead internalize it into a large system. Yet, for this scenario, there is already a contingency plan awaiting in the background, using the Geo's internal construction rules (see prior lessons). See you on this or other revealing threads. Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster LinkedIn: David Alcindor ----- .
Education
by 4xForecaster
31
Relationship between Bund and Euro US DollarWhat is the Bund? The Bund is the German 10-Year Treasury bill, also known as a government bond. A holder of a bond is a creditor, and the issuer of a bond is called a borrower or debtor. When the price of the Bund increases, the yield received on that bond decreases and vice versa. What is the relationship between Bund and EURUSD? Why is this relationship there? The relationship between the Bund and EURUSD is inversely correlated - when the yield of the Bund increases, the Euro is bullish, and when it decreases it is bearish. One thing to note is that the price of a bond and the yield received is also inversely correlated. The relationship is there because during periods of uncertainty, people generally look for less risky positions (they may liquidate any equity positions they may hold and invest in bonds if they have low confidence in the stock market). This new demand for bonds pushes the price higher, but forces the yields down. A quick equation can show why this occurs: Let's say we have a bond priced at £1,000 with a 10% coupon rate (the amount you can expect to return per annum). The equation would be (£100/£1000) where yield = coupon value/price of bond. If the price of the bond increases to £2000, the yield decreases (£100/£2000) = 5% PA. For a bond holder looking to sell the bond at a later date, this is good as they have already locked in the rate of interest that they will be paying. However, as a buyer of a bond, you want to be buying low to lock in a higher yield. A concise explanation about what influences bond prices can be found at Investopedia (www.investopedia.com). I have borrowed from that below. The factor that influences a bond more than any other is the level of prevailing interest rates in the economy. When interest rates rise, the prices of bonds in the market fall, thereby raising the yield of the older bonds and bringing them into line with newer bonds being issued with higher coupons. When interest rates fall, the prices of bonds in the market rise, thereby lowering the yield of the older bonds and bringing them into line with newer bonds being issued with lower coupons. Bond yields and FX The spreads of the 10Y bonds can be used to gauge the direction for currencies as well. When the yield spread increases in favour of a certain currency, it is likely that you will see that currency appreciate vs others. When a yield spread tops or bottoms out, you can expect the related currency to begin to fall/rise in the following months. Playing on interest rate differentials is known as carry trading. Above graph explained The Bund is testing back to its 200 day EMA. On the recent occasions when it has tested here, it has failed to break above, however, the upward momentum appears to be intact . In the short term there is clear divergence between Bund & EURUSD. Furthermore our model shows the Bund as being a weakest bear suggesting it would like to go & turn bullish and indeed it would be back in a bull trend through 154 vs close last night of 152.9. Form your own opinions. Losses may exceed deposits.
FX:BUNDEducation
by DavidBelleFX
8
My Butterfly pattern rules GBPUSDHere on the GBPUSD im getting closer to my short orders being filled and the butterfly pattern completing. stops for me go just above the 1.414 ext and target is the .382 retrace of the A to D-leg. Butterfly rules: 1= Atleast a .786 retrace of the X to A- leg but cannot break X. 2= Atleast a .382 retrace of the A to B-leg and can go past .382 just cannot break A. 3=Pattern completion for the butterfly pattern is a .127 ext of the A to B-leg. Thats were i place my orders. If you have any questions about this pattern or if you would like me to post more educational content about advanced patterns just leave me a comment in the comment section and i will help you with it any way that i can. Thanks for checking out my idea and Good luck on all your trades!!
Education
by StevenH
8
USD/JPY - 2618 Trade Explained USD/JPY - H1 - 2618 Trade Explained Having had a double top and now approaching a retracement back into the 61.8% Fib level, we can now look for reasons to short the USD. Unlike patterns we can't just place BUY or SELL orders in advanced. Once we have completed the rules of engagement below, we are looking for confluence within a certain area that all coincide. This in the long term will give us a better success rate. Rules Of Engagement 2618 - Double Top - Break below Neckline / Support - 0.618% Fibonacci retracement - Stop loss above double top - Target 1 at 38.2% Fibonacci - Target 2 at 61.8% Fibonacci Good luck.
Education
by UnknownUnicorn180388
15
Soros did not make GBP crash in 1992. He counted EW correctly!It's not a trading idea, more of a a history lesson :-) Today while browsing the web I stumbled upon a well known story how Soros and his friends heavily shorted the Pound in 1992 and forced the government into surrender, pocketing more than a billion USD of gains. For the British Pound, this can largely be viewed as a black swan event - however, if we look at the chart and apply Elliott wave count, it becomes clear that GBP rise was over anyway as the zigzag correction was near its completion. The last subdivision of the zizzag, which was also a zigzag, completed equal A and C waves, so everything was set for a reversal. What made Soros successful in this deal is that he entered the market at the right moment. The black swan event worked out because the market was ready! Had the market been in a different place of the curve Soros could have bet all his fortune agains GBP and the market would just go by as usual. Black swans don't make the market move. They occur only when the market allows them to do so. And I believe the technical analysis can help is find the right moments. Just a thought :)
Education
by AndyM
4