Smart Money and the why behind it
I have used @TradingView for near enough 10 years now. What I like about the platform is the simplicity and the tools.
I often get asked about things like strategy or other people's techniques - "What do you think of SMC or this guy or that guy"
Look, when it comes to trading - Liquidity is something very little people understand. Gurus talk about it and draw pretty lines but still fail to break it down as to why it's there in the first place.
"Ah it's where the big boys buy or sell"
so to help visualise this lets use some of these tools here on Tradingview.
Look at my first chart here;
What I have done is jumped up a timeframe and placed a volume profile tool on my chart, then simply used the drawing tool to draw a squiggle around the relevant nodes.
I then dropped back to the smaller timeframe and switched on a couple of indicators to help visualise where the liquidity is.
if you look at the lines 15minutes and 30minutes both in green and cast your eyes to the right, can you see they sit just below (as price is coming from above) to those higher volume nodes from that higher timeframe?
Let's use another tool here on TradingView;
This one is called a fixed range volume profile.
the two blue lines extended out are known as the value area high and low. Often this is set to around 70-75% but I like to reduce that a little. The red line is called a PoC or point of control. This basically means the highest transactional point of the range you fixed.
However, if you look over to the left this time you will see two higher volume nodes (mountains) and therefore look at the 15m and 30m lines again with fresh eyes.
In this next image I have increased the range and dragged it over to include more data. I could write full strategies on this tool alone.
The first thing you should notice is the PoC has now jumped up higher. Think logically about this for a second.
We are seeking lower timeframe liquidity down low and the area of interest and value is showing price was accepted up high.
So, after grabbing liquidity, would we anticipate the price to continue down lower or come back to play in the accepted zone?
This is where a lot of newer traders fail, especially when trading smart money concepts "SMC" for short. They fail to understand the bigger picture.
Another little tool in the same box-set is the Timeprice indicator.
Much like session volume this gives a pretty clean view and of course settings can be adjusted. I like the look on this one, it's very modern. But the real value isn't until you zoom in and zoom in and you see why it's called Time - Price. I'll leave that for another post.
But continuing the theme of this post; look at the clusters of the time price indicator and note where the PoC sits on the 15m liquidity level. Then below the 30m liquidity is the lower side of the value area. Are you starting to see a theme?
In this last image; I have simply highlighted liquidity to keep my chart clean.
You will see candles showing the last buys before the selloff. Then a consolidation under the liquidity - this is basically a Wyckoff structure prior to a mark down move.
We then drop into the liquidity pocket and here is where most SMC traders would be jumping long. We see a very nice little rally, then a large fast drop through the liquidity, this hitting many stops and triggering new short positions.
which is why as these shorts get triggered, you anticipate the pullback - to what level? Well look left and the charts will tell you.
I hope this has opened a few eyes - go away and have a play with these indicators on @TradingView and feel free to aks if you have any questions.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years' experience in stocks, ETF's, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Volumeprofileanalysis
A Basic Guide to Trading a Balanced Volume ProfileBasic Principles of Trading a Balanced Node
Rule 1: Unless the price breaks and holds Value High or Value Low we should expect buyers and sellers to maintain the current balance.
Rule 2: If we break and re-bid from Period Value High we should treat that level as supportive until it is reclaimed ( buy-side acceptance outside of balance)
Rule 3: If we break and push away from Period Value Low we should treat that level as resistance on retest until it is reclaimed (sell-side acceptance outside of balance)
Rule 4: If we recover Value Low and it becomes supportive we look for our Period POC and Period Value High as our targets above ( return to balance)
Rule 5: If we fail to hold Period Value High and sellers make it resistance on re-offer we look for our Period POC and Period Value Low as targets (return to balance)
Balance between Value Low and Value High will remain between buyers & sellers until we see a value shift and acceptance above/below on one of our "edges".
Utilizing these rules we can look for opportunities around our Value Edges and have a better understanding how to trade around them.
Trader's Guide: Volume Range Profile 📊Welcome, traders! In this guide, we'll explore a tool that can significantly enhance your trading skills - the Volume Range Profile. You'll learn how to use it to identify key support and resistance levels, trend reversals, and execute successful trades. 📊💹
Key Learning Points:
Understanding Volume Range Profile:
The Volume Range Profile is a tool that displays trading volumes at various price ranges.
It helps identify where the market has the highest volume and where key support and resistance levels are formed.
Volume Analysis:
The first step in using Volume Range Profile effectively is to analyze the volume data.
Look for price areas with significant spikes in volume as these often indicate areas of interest to traders.
Identifying Key Levels:
Using Volume Range Profile, you can identify the Point of Control (POC), which is the price level with the highest volume.
Additionally, you can spot the Value Area High (VAH) and Value Area Low (VAL), which represent price ranges where the majority of trading activity occurs.
Support and Resistance Levels:
The POC, VAH, and VAL can serve as dynamic support and resistance levels.
When the price approaches these levels, it's essential to watch for potential reversals or breakouts.
Trading Strategies:
Volume Range Profile can be used in various trading strategies, including range trading, breakout trading, and trend confirmation.
For example, a breakout above the VAH may indicate a bullish move, while a breakdown below the VAL could signal a bearish trend.
Risk Management:
Always implement proper risk management strategies in your trades.
Consider placing stop-loss orders below support levels and take-profit orders near resistance levels identified using the Volume Range Profile.
Continuous Learning:
Practice using the Volume Range Profile in different market conditions to enhance your skills.
Stay updated with market news and trends to adapt your trading strategies accordingly.
By incorporating Volume Range Profile analysis into your trading routine, you can gain valuable insights into market sentiment and make more informed trading decisions. Happy trading! 🚀📊
Fixed Range Volume Profile, How do I use it?I can say that Fixed Range Volume Profile is strong tool to determine targets and stop loss, POC point of control as per my research represent a central price and bar close price is turning around it, so when you assign take profit and stop loss as per it, you reduce the risk and have a plan B to manage your trade.
as you see in above chart for BTCUSD, we have trend line on daily time frame, I cut the chart to 3 successive zones representing 3 cycle, 1 cycle is from the trend to trend and applied "Fixed Range Volume Profile" on all 3 ranges/cycles, last cycle has not finished yet, and I show POC1, POC2 and POC3 prices.
I consider this line as central price for a range and we can see how price keep moving above and down POC1 & POC2 prices.
for the last range/cycle (not completed yet because it has not reach the uptrend line yet, we see POC3 = $30,200 and the current price $29,590 so price is under POC3 and we can guess it is going to trend at approximately $27,750, this is 1st hint.
2nd hint is to take "Fixed Range Volume Profile" for the all uptrend, did you notice it? I think the price is going to POC(all range) = $28,300 (support)
Now we came to the best part of our subject, the what if question and how to set up a plan?:
what is stop loss?
we need a 1H bar close above POC3= $30,200+100= $30,300 (resistant) and we buy target $31,380 (you should know why!) and for stop loss, we need close price 1H again down $30,200
what is take profit?
we can set $28,300 for safe and $27,750 if you want to risk a little bit, this is first target, but what if bar 4h close down POC= $28,300? here we can set a 2nd take profit at $26,400 (you should know why!)
this is what I wanted to share with you and I will be glad to answer your questions.
I did go short for BTCUSD this morning, enter price $29,165 and I set a take profit at $29,322 because I am working on 15 min timeframe.
Seeking Hidden Treasure: Navigating Virgin Points of ControlIntroduction: Anchoring in Unfamiliar Waters
Raise the Jolly Roger, folks! We’re setting sail into unexplored waters today. The stock market can be as unpredictable as the seven seas, and every now and then, you need a little treasure map to help navigate through the tempest. Virgin Points of Control, or VPOCs, are like the hidden coves full of buried treasure. Often overlooked by the untrained eye, these gems can be a goldmine if you know how to wield their power. So, batten down the hatches as we dive deep into the enigmatic world of Virgin Points of Control.
Casting the Net: What are Virgin Points of Control?
In the trading world, VPOC is the lingo for the price levels where heavy trading volume once took place, but hasn't been retested by price action since. In layman’s terms, imagine a bustling pirate market where a boatload of trading went down. Then, one day, the market moves elsewhere, leaving behind a ghost town. That, my friends, is your Virgin Point of Control.
The Ghostly Beacon: Spotting VPOCs
A VPOC can be a beacon in the stormy market. To find these mystical points, you’ve got to have your sea charts (read: price and volume charts) handy. Keep an eye out for volume peaks where the price hasn’t returned in a while. There’s your ghost town!
Charting the Course: How to Trade with VPOCs
Setting Sail: Identify the VPOC
First things first, whip out your spyglass and spot those VPOCs. Look for significant volume peaks and valleys that haven’t been revisited.
Heave Ho: Monitor Price Action
Don’t go in guns blazing just yet! Wait for the price to creep back towards the VPOC. When it's within reach, watch how it behaves.
Full Steam Ahead or Abandon Ship: Make the Call
If the price bounces back from the VPOC, there might be a treasure chest waiting. However, if it breaches the VPOC, it’s best to cut your losses and abandon ship.
Pirate’s Bounty: The Benefits of Trading VPOCs
Why should you care about these ghost towns? Here’s why:
High Reward Potential: Hidden treasures, anyone? The untested waters of VPOCs can offer rich pickings.
Valuable Insights: Understanding VPOCs can give you insight into what other traders are thinking, which is like having a pirate’s parrot eavesdrop on your rivals.
Beware the Kraken: The Risks
Just like the high seas, Virgin Points of Control have their fair share of risks:
False Signals: Sometimes, it’s just a siren’s call leading you to shipwreck. The price might tease you by nearing the VPOC and then leaving you high and dry.
Requires Patience: These ghost towns don’t crop up every day. It’s a waiting game, and sometimes the wait can be as long as the voyage of the Flying Dutchman.
FAQs
1. Can I use Virgin Points of Control for any market?
You bet! The stock market, forex, and commodities are all fair game.
2. Is it necessary to use other indicators along with VPOCs?
It's like having a crew on your pirate ship - the more, the merrier! Combining VPOCs with other indicators like moving averages can be a winning strategy.
3. How to identify a VPOC on a chart?
Look for peaks in volume where price hasn’t returned for a significant amount of time.
Charting New Waters: Concluding the Voyage
Virgin Points of Control are like the secret treasure maps of trading. Navigating these waters requires a keen eye, patience, and a dash of daring. With the right mix, VPOCs can be the buried treasure that catapults your trading voyage into legend. Just remember, the sea is a fickle mistress, and a smooth sea never made a skilled sailor. Weigh anchor and set sail, but keep your wits about you! May the trade winds be ever in your favor. Happy treasure hunting!
⚖️ Auction Market Theory📍Auction Market Theory, developed by J. Peter Steidlmayer and expanded upon by Jim Dalton in his book Mind Over Markets, explains how financial markets function as auctions where buyers and sellers interact. The theory focuses on two main objectives: facilitating trade through a two-way auction process and determining the fair value of assets. Supply and demand dynamics and price discovery play a crucial role in this process. Auction Market Theory is represented using tools like Market or Volume Profile, which utilize bell-shaped curves to identify the value area, representing 68% or 1 standard deviation from the mean.
🔷 In a balanced market , buyers and sellers agree on prices based on their perception of fair value. This leads to lower volatility and prices that remain relatively stable, resulting in a ranging market. The fair value can be recognized using the Market or Volume profile, which appears as a Gaussian bell-shaped curve. However, financial markets rarely stay in balance indefinitely. New information, whether fundamental or technical, causes markets to move away from fair value and transition into a different environment.
🔷 Imbalance refers to the opposite of balance, where there is a disagreement about fair value. In this scenario, one side of market participants becomes more aggressive, leading to a trending market. Typically, markets tend to trend only about 20% of the time and range about 80% of the time. When the market is within the value range, it is more likely to remain in balance and explore within that range. However, in the case of an imbalance, the market often drifts higher or lower until it reaches a stop, typically within a previous value area.
💥Key Takeaways:
🔸 Auction Market Theory explains how financial markets function as auctions, focusing on facilitating trade and determining fair value.
🔸 Supply and demand dynamics and price discovery are essential in the Auction Market Theory process.
🔸 Tools like Market or Volume Profile use bell-shaped curves to identify the value area, representing 68% or 1 standard deviation from the mean.
🔸 In a balanced market, buyers and sellers agree on prices based on their perception of fair value, leading to lower volatility and a ranging market.
🔸 Financial markets rarely stay in balance indefinitely, as new information causes them to move away from fair value and transition into different environments.
🔸 Imbalance occurs when there is disagreement about fair value, leading to a trending market.
🔸 Markets tend to trend about 20% of the time and range about 80% of the time.
🔸 When the market is within the value range, it is likely to remain in balance and explore within that range.
🔸 Imbalanced markets often drift higher or lower until they reach a stop, usually within a previous value area.
👤 @AlgoBuddy
📅 Daily Ideas about market update, psychology & indicators
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📊 Volume Profile: IndicatorsThere’s a reason why trading volume has been a standard indicator on every piece of charting software over the last 30 years… it provides a crucial edge.
Volume provides you with logical insight into the activity of market participants at varying price levels. Volume analysis helps traders to become more reactionary to price movements rather than trying to predict where price will go next, as is the case with most technical indicators.
📍Key takeaways about volume
Key takeaways about the normal volume indicator plotted on the X-axis in trading:
🔹Volume Indicator: The normal volume indicator measures the total number of shares or contracts traded during a given time period. It is commonly displayed as a histogram or line chart, with the X-axis representing time.
🔹Liquidity: Volume is a crucial metric as it provides insights into the liquidity of a security. Higher volume generally indicates greater market participation and liquidity, making it easier to buy or sell the asset without significantly impacting its price.
🔹Confirmation: Volume can confirm the validity of price movements. In an uptrend, increasing volume supports the bullish move, suggesting strength and conviction among buyers. Conversely, declining volume during an uptrend may signal weakness or lack of interest. The same principles apply to downtrends.
🔹 Breakouts and Reversals: Volume analysis is often used to identify breakouts and potential trend reversals. A significant increase in volume during a breakout suggests a higher probability of a sustained move, while decreasing volume near a support or resistance level might indicate a potential reversal.
🔹Divergence: Volume can reveal divergence between price and market sentiment. For example, if prices are rising but volume is decreasing, it could suggest that the rally is losing steam and a reversal may be imminent. Similarly, increasing volume during a price decline might indicate selling pressure and further downside potential.
🔹Confirmation of Patterns: Volume can provide confirmation or invalidation of chart patterns such as triangles, head and shoulders, or double tops/bottoms. Higher volume during pattern formations enhances their reliability, while low volume can cast doubt on the pattern's significance.
🔹Watch for Extreme Volume: Abnormal spikes in volume can indicate significant market events, such as earnings releases, news announcements, or institutional buying/selling. Unusual volume can lead to increased volatility and potentially offer trading opportunities.
🔹Relative Volume: Comparing current volume to historical average volume helps gauge the significance of the current trading activity. Higher volume relative to the average may imply increased interest, while lower volume might suggest a lack of conviction or reduced market participation.
👤 @AlgoBuddy
📅 Daily Ideas about market update, psychology & indicators
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📊Volume Profile: Components & Concept📍What is a volume profile?
A Volume Profile is an advanced charting indicator that displays total volume traded at every price level over a user specified time period.
📍Volume Profiles Uses:
🔷 Identify Key Support and Resistance Levels for Setups
🔷 Determine Logical Take Profits and Stop Losses
🔷 Calculate Initial R Multiplier
🔷 Identify Balanced vs Imbalanced Markets
🔷 Determine Strength of Trends
📍Volume Profile Components:
🔹Point of Control (POC): Price level where the most volume traded for the session. Commonly referred to as the POC.
🔹Value Area (VA): Price range in which a user specified percentage volume was traded for a session. Volume profile traditionalist use 70% as it close to 1 standard deviation from the mean. The Point of Control is used as the mean on a volume profile.
🔹Volume Area High(VAH) : This represents the price level at which the highest volume of trades occurred during the analyzed period inside VA. It indicates a significant level of trading activity and is often considered a key resistance level.
🔹Volume Area Low(VAL): Conversely, the Volume Area Low represents the price level with the lowest volume of trades during the analyzed period inside VA. It signifies a level of low trading activity and is typically considered a support level.
👤 @AlgoBuddy
📅 Daily Ideas about market update, psychology & indicators
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Trading with Volume profile there was 3 setup for intraday trading
first one after seeing rejection of imbalances ( high risk until we entered the Value again ) take profit @ POC or VAL
second one after seeing rejection of VAL ( this one was most valid setup of the day , we rejected imbalances and VAL at the same time , there were clear signs in the footprint ) take profit @ VWAP or POC or VAH or even finding new values at higher prices
third one was after breaking of VAH and retesting it ( usually u shouldn't enter at breakouts , cause it might be just liquidity hunt . u should wait for retest of breaking point ) take profit @ new values at higher prices
i usually dont like break out trades , but there was another opportunity after seeing absorption behind the vwap .
💎 Analyzing the Various Shapes of Volume ProfilesVolume Profile is a tool that shows how much volume (i.e. the number of trades) is happening at different price levels for a given asset.
It is used by traders to analyze order flow and make inferences about market direction, support and resistance, and potential reversal areas.
The patterns in a Volume Profile may appear random at first glance, but there are certain recurring shapes that can be used to make predictions about the market.
🔵 P-Shaped Volume Profile
A P-shaped Volume Profile is a chart pattern that typically occurs when a market experiences a sharp rise followed by consolidation.
The lower part of the P-shaped profile represents low volume rejection, while the wider upper part shows an increase in trading activity at a "fair" price.
These patterns are often seen during uptrends, but can also indicate the end of a downtrend and a potential short covering rally, which is seen as a bullish signal.
🔵 b-Shaped Volume Profile
A b-shaped Volume Profile is a chart pattern that forms when a market experiences a sharp decline followed by consolidation.
It is the opposite of a P-shaped profile and is often seen during downtrends. The upper part of a b-shaped profile represents low volume and an "unfair" perception of price,
while the wider bottom part shows an increase in trading activity and a balance between buyers and sellers.
If a b-shaped profile appears during an uptrend, it could potentially indicate a reversal. These patterns are generally seen as bearish signals, as they often represent longs exiting the market.
🔵 D-Shaped Volume Profile
A D-shaped Volume Profile is a chart pattern that occurs when there is a temporary balance in a market. The Point of Control (POC), which is typically located in the center of the profile,
indicates an equal number of buyers and sellers. Some traders view a D-shaped profile as a sign of a choppy or sideways market without a clear direction,
while others see it as an opportunity to anticipate a potential breakout in either direction as institutional players build up their positions.
🔵 B-Shaped Volume Profile
A B-shaped Volume Profile is a chart pattern that occurs when two D-shaped profiles appear within a specific time period. It is characterized by a single value area and Point of Control (POC),
although some traders may divide the profile into two separate "D-areas" with their own value areas. B-shaped profiles are generally seen as a continuation of a trend,
but it is important to note which POC is more dominant, as this can indicate whether activity was highest at the top or bottom of the profile.
👤 @algobuddy
📅 Daily Ideas about market update, psychology & indicators
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How To Use Volume Profile Tool For Massive Gains! 99% ReturnsDisclaimer: Not Financial Advice
Using The Volume Profile as a tool for my Nava Imbalance Strategy, I have made 99% ROI time and time again!
1. How I Use Volume Profile Tool
(From Last Major Swing To Present)
Blue Lines = Immediate Support/Resistance (Range)
- Best entry ZONES, Area to WAIT for BUY SETUPS
- Best to wait for price to pass sup/res lines and on the way back enter or wait for a retest.
Light Blue = MAGNET LINE
(Shows which side the pressure is pointing to)
- Price will always come back to the magnet line
- IF magnet line is getting closer to one side of the range, Its early indication of direction.
- Note, price WILL fakeout to the opposing side blue line before moving hard to direction of early indication to give you best possible entry!
WARNING: Volume Tool CHANGES. Long term not so much but still keep in mind.
2. Magnet Line is closer to bottom of range =
Bearish Pressure
3. Pressure builds up within the magnet and support zone
until price breaks out to retest opposing blue line resistance first.
4. BEST POSSIBLE SHORT ENTRY
Retest here usually results
in a Fakeout. Look for ENTRY SETUPS
5. ENTRY SETUPS
Double Top/bottom, Head & Shoulders, rsi/macd oversold/overbought, etc.
6. FOR BEST RESULTS (80% Profitable)
Use Volume Profile Tool with Nava Imbalance Strategy
(View @JOKESTV Tradingview)
Price Action + Volume Profile "An Edge"Price Action by itself is a penetrating weapon when it comes to trading Successfully. Having it combined with volume profile gives you an extra edge over others. More precise entries plus better Stop Loss Placement.
We will begin by identifying the important demand and supply zones using variations of price action patterns and structures. then once those areas have been spotted validity of them is confirmed by volume profile. And finally entry is selected
A Dive Into My Swing Trading Approach (+setup) This video was a short synthesis of my swing trading approach. For the amount of information I presented, I'm not expecting to successfully being able to convey my means and ways in one short video, but I'm glad if I could at least show a different perspective.
Some important things I forgot to mention:
- The tolerance for identifying a visual weak liquidity pattern is 2 ticks, 3 ticks during highly volatile days (for the ES). This can change from one market to another. Anything more than 2/3 ticks is considered a move of conviction supported by strong liquidity, a market that has the confidence to see what's beyond a certain point to then either sharply reverse or move forward.
- Using this method I CANNOT know what the market makers are exactly doing, there is no way to know, they will always be a step ahead of any brilliant retail trader. However, we can understand their logic and the weak traders' logic, the latter is the type we want to trade against.
SETUP
As I said, I favour a short trade, but as of today I have to remain on the sidelines. During this times is important to be flexible and change ones bias if that's what the market is suggesting. I will post my set up (if any) in due course.