GOLD AIMS HIGHERAfter a significant sell-off, we managed to find support at the 50% channel retracement, within the ascending channel, at the trendline, and in the golden pocket. I’m expecting a nice move up from here if this level holds
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GOLD: Trend is still bullish on intraday chartHi Traders!
Gold futures are up 0.6% at $2,793.50 a troy ounce after hitting a fresh record of $2,801.70 an ounce earlier in the session. The new high reflects safe-haven demand, boosted by uncertainty around the U.S. election, says Vivek Dhar, analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. The growing likelihood of a Trump presidency has likely played a role too. Former President Trump's plans raise the risk of policy disruption, geopolitical tensions and a higher U.S. debt profile, Dhar says in a research report. These have further boosted gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset. CBA expects gold to average $2,800 an ounce throughout the fourth quarter of 2024. It expects gold to rise to average $3,000 an ounce by the fourth quarter of 2025.
From a technical point of view, during yesterday's session Gold reached our TARGET 1 (see chart/analysis below), at the same time, the trend seems to remain bullish, and after a corrective structure on intraday chart, Gold could reach the 2,800 area also on the spot market.
🔴 ANALYSIS TARGET 1
(click and play on chart below)
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Gold vs Commodities: Monitoring Relative Strength in Hard AssetsIntroduction:
The commodity sector spans various areas, including energy, agriculture, livestock, and metals. However, focusing on the most promising areas can lead to more effective investment strategies. One key ratio to monitor is gold AMEX:GLD versus a broader commodities basket (DBC). This ratio is especially relevant for those interested in hard assets, as it highlights where strength lies in the commodity space. Currently, this ratio favors gold as the stronger performer.
Analysis:
Relative Strength: The GLD-to-DBC ratio offers critical insights into the relative performance of gold versus other commodities. Gold has been outperforming the broader commodity basket, indicating its resilience as a hard asset.
Technical Pattern: Earlier this year, the ratio broke out of a rounding bottom pattern, signaling a bullish trend in favor of gold. Even before this breakout, the trend was clear through a series of higher highs and higher lows, reinforcing the strength of gold relative to other commodities.
Gold’s Performance: Gold remains near its all-time highs, while other commodities continue to lag behind. This highlights gold’s resilience in the face of broader market uncertainties.
Conclusion:
Gold’s resilience compared to other commodities makes it a standout performer in the current market environment. The recent breakout in the GLD-to-DBC ratio and the continued pattern of higher highs and higher lows support the bullish case for gold. Traders focused on hard assets should monitor this ratio closely to gauge potential shifts in strength. What’s your outlook on gold versus other commodities? Share your insights below!
Charts: (Include relevant charts showing the GLD-to-DBC ratio, the rounding bottom pattern, and the higher highs and higher lows trend)
Tags: #Gold #Commodities #HardAssets #GLD #DBC #TechnicalAnalysis
XAUUSD Turned bullish again.Gold / XAUUSD continues to trade inside June's Channel Up.
Its recent bearish leg has managed to find support on the 0.382 Fib and rebounded, closing today its 2nd straight green 1day candle.
This is the start of the new bullish leg and the minimum rise such a leg had inside the pattern was +7.55%.
With that in mind, buy and target 2800 by mid November.
Previous chart:
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XAUUSD Strong buy at the bottom of the Channel.Gold is trading inside a Channel Up since July.
Breaking below the MA50 (4h) set in motion the bearish wave correction but since yesterday it managed to find support exactly at the bottom of the Channel Up.
The MA200 (4h) is right below and has been the key support since July.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 2800 (+7.60% from the bottom, same with the two bullish waves of the Channel Up).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) is rebounding today and that has been a strong buy signal on another three occasions inside the Channel Up.
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Could Gold reverse from here?The price is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 2,645.64
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 2,660.75
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that lines up with the 88% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 2,652.48
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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$GLD short term top? Buy the dip at $177 or lower?AMEX:GLD looks like it's putting in a top here. While I do think commodities have started longer term bull trends, I think if we see a big move down in risk assets, commodities won't escape the bearish move.
I think it's likely that we reverse from this level and find support somewhere between $177-169 region.
However, I'm not ruling out the possibility of a larger move down. Supports on the charts.
After we see a major correction, I'll look for long-term entries as I think that move down will start the next bull run.
Bitcoin to $100kIn October 2025, I think Bitcoin will hit $100k before retracing back to around the $60k mark (previous highs become new resistance).
Over the last few cycles, we can see a pattern form -- highlighted by the coloring of the squares that make up each period in the cycle. There are three such periods.
The purple box is the draw-down from the previous high a.k.a. the fear cycle. The yellow box is mid-cycle, where buying pressure starts building and we have several large shorter-term retracements. The green box is the greed cycle -- when everyone and your grandma wants in.
We're still in the yellow, which means there's a strong possibility of returning to the $50k or even $40k levels in the shorter term.
I predict the top of this bull run will be somewhere between mid-October to mid-November 2025, which means there is still plenty of time to keep buying.
Good luck!
Silver En-Route to $34-$36🚀Silver is moving REALLY SMOOTH & easy to understand in terms of market structure. We saw market create its first impulse move to the upside in October 2022 (similar to Gold), which was then followed by a downside correction from January this year.
Silver didn't go below its last major low & last week created a bullish engulfing candle on the weekly TF, showing its huge bullish momentum. Silver en route to $36🚀
GOLD - BEARISH MOVE 📉Hello Traders !
As We Talked in The Previous Analysis, The XAUUSD Formed a Descending Triangle.
The Price Broke The Support Level (2013.702 - 2021.000).
This Key Level Becomes a New Resistance Level.
So, I Expect a Bearish Move📉.
I'm Waiting For Retest...
________
TARGET: 1983.000🎯
GOLD - Bearish Triple TOP 📉
As We Talked in The Previous Analysis:
The XAUUSD Formed a Descending Triangle.
The Price Broke The Support Level (2013.702 - 2021.000).
This Key Level Becomes a New Resistance Level.
Currently,
The Price Pull Back to Important Structure
and Formed a Triple TOP Pattern.
________
TARGET: 1983.000🎯
Gold Set To Take On $2000 Amidst The Middle East CrisesThe global markets often react to geopolitical events, and the rising Middle East conflict is a prime example, drawing investors' attention worldwide.
This tension has amplified the demand for gold, a traditionally secure investment. The ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict underscores gold's safe-haven status.
Gold prices have surged by 9% since October 6th. Looking back to August 2020, prices have ranged between $1614 and $2075.
Such consolidations hint at a significant impending move so a breakout might be on the horizon.
Recently, gold approached the crucial $2000 mark, a level that price last traded above in May 2023. Surpassing this could lead to price challenging its all-time high of $2081.
With the Middle East conflict persisting, gold's appeal as a protective investment might push its prices to new records heights, even as the financial landscape remains unpredictable.
✅TS ❕ XAUUSD: resistance level✅✅ Gold rose for a long time without correction.
The price has reached resistance.
We expect a reversal of the direction of the chart movement. ✅
🚀 SELL scenario: short to 1946 🚀
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Strifor || UKOIL-10/19/2023Preferred direction: SELL
Comment: After the rally in oil, prices are most likely ready for a correction. The downward correction is expected to continue. Positions are considered from current prices with a view to approaching level 88. Presumably, after which there will be a pause and a likely continuation of the fall.
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New bull market in Gold As per my Elliot Wave* analysis, Octobers low may mark the the mid-term bottom for gold and price has started to work on building the right hand side of the cup.
As long as 168 holds, I would expect the price to move towards next important resistance area 194-200 area. Ideally build a hand of the cup after reaching that level and break-out above 194 towards important next targets: 212-224-230.
Also notice the "Mona Lisa" of cup-and-handle pattern in GLD on a monthly time-scale
The symmetry and volume dynamics, that subsides in the handle area, is almost picture perfect.
Trading thesis : I will be looking for price to digest its rally from Oct lows, preferably around 177-180 area, creating a cheat pivot and relatively low risk entry point. This entry, if materializes, may create a good long-term opportunity to build position for the coming 2024 and potentially beyond.
* Important caveat to EW: I use it solely to have a subjective idea about sentiment and overall structural context to support, but not guide, my investing decisions. Price and volume is the key, and only price pays, not the fibonacci resistance or any wave count.
⭐️ The gold rush begins... now!
Gold is very strongly correlated with 10-year US bonds TVC:US10Y , such a high correlation there began immediately after the 2008 crisis (coincidence?). This next year, 10-year yields are unlikely to go above 5.5%, which means the potential for gold to fall is very limited.
Now the yield on 10-year bonds is 4.74% and only +~0.7% is left to reach the 5.5% mark.
In this case, gold has the potential to fall by another -7.5-10% from the current ones, that is, in theory, the price of gold will find its mid- and long-term bottom at $1,700-1,750.
🔥 What does the technical analysis say?
On the weekly timeframe, gold entered the oversold zone according to indicators. Historically, from such levels, this asset bounced upward.
On the daily timeframe the situation is even more interesting.
CAPITALCOM:GOLD Gold has gone into a very oversold zone, and the last time the indicator had such values was 7 years ago!
Also, the price is at the lower border of the medium-term downward channel, the support level of 1831 points and the long-term moving average MA200w.
The technique suggests at least a technical rebound on which you can make money.
In this case, the minimum growth target will be in the area of 1887-1900 points.
📊 Result:
The most liquid asset in the world is in a very strongly oversold zone, and if we are not at the bottom now, then the bottom is clearly very close, so at current prices you can buy both speculatively and long-term.
But you need to be prepared to buy additional assets in the area of 1700-1750 points (potential drawdown of only -3.3%).
💡 Idea: long gold with leverage up to 20x.
In this case, the stop should be placed at 1790 (-1.65%) points, and the take profit in the area of 1887-1900 (+4.11%) points.
⚖️ Risk/profit: ~1k4.
TradePlus-Fx|USDCAD: mid-term view💬Description: As a result of yesterday's trading day, the currency pair closed above the level of 1.35019 , which is a very significant event, especially for buyers. The dollar continues to exert pressure across the board, and with the daily close above this level, this trend for USDCAD will continue. However, most likely, growth is limited and setting targets above 1.36447 would even be naive.
The medium-term prospects for this instrument are more interesting. Here, you should most likely expect sell-priority. The accumulation volume is distributed in such a way that a big player is likely to change the direction of the market, since the “market crowd” will satisfy his request and close all his longs. For the “crowd”, this is a loss.
Here we highlight two scenarios for the development of events, respectively, and two options for entering a sell on the USDCAD currency pair. Both options are shown on the chart. Of course, the entry point in the second scenario will be stronger for the seller, but one can gain a medium-term position according to the first scenario.
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GOLD → just a perspectivehello guys...
gold reacts to flip area and I believe this commodity wanna try that level again!
besides that, it formed a QM and contained the QML too!
I think gold after touching the gray area, will come back to reach the qml (or qmc pattern)
it is just a thought! let's see what happens
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