Usoil:Have reached the bottom?
As can be seen from the chart, oil has stopped falling, but it is not ruled out that it may go lower again. Today, it did not break through Friday's high of 77.7.
Today, it is necessary to observe whether the oil will fall twice. If the decline does not fall below the support range of 75-76, it can be judged that the oil may have reached the short-term bottom.
If oil breaks through 78, it can be judged that the chance of reaching the bottom is very high, and there is still room for growth this week.
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USOIL: Watch next week to break out of the big range?
This week, crude oil has been running between 80 and 83.2, which is in line with my previous forecast, and I have made very good profits in this range by going short on highs and long on lows. Follow-up focus on whether the yuan oil breaks through the sub-range!
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USOIL: Oscillating operation
Today, crude oil is still oscillating between 80 and 83, and continue to pay attention to whether it breaks through this range!
Today, we are once again in the range of high short, low and long, harvested a good profit!
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USOIL: The overall direction is a volatile trend
After yesterday's pullback, crude oil continued to rise today to near the pressure level of 83.2, peaking at 83.4, we are trading in this range, and the profit is very good!
At present, the price of crude oil is around 82.2, if you can continue to do more after encountering support, in the short term, crude oil is a volatile trend, must grasp the direction of the range before trading!
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USOIL TRADE IDEA Long (31/10/2023)On the weekly timeframe, USOIL has already reversed into a buy, breaking significant structures. I believe it'll keep seeking out buys.
The daily time frame confirms that too - with current weakness showing in order to gather liquidity to complete the long move.
In terms of where it'll react from - that depends on the structure it breaks. If it breaks (Likely and best situation) POI 1, then expect it to return to POI 2 and to react off of there.
I expect price to return to POI 2 because using the Fib tool, you shouldn't be looking for trades at 50%, rather around 60-75% or the inverse 0-25/35%.
Target profit 1: 93.75
Target profit 2: 101
NOTE: This is not financial advice, please do your own research and be aware that any risks are being taken solely by you, the individual.
USOIL: This week's summary and next week's trading ideas
The deteriorating outlook in Europe has left oil traders wondering whether global oil demand will remain resilient next year. On the other hand, the US third quarter GDP data exceeded expectations and continued to deliver strong economic growth. A higher dollar and an uncertain economic outlook seem to be haunting oil. Oil prices rose on Friday on fears that tensions between Israel and Gaza could spill over into a wider conflict that could disrupt global crude supplies.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $2.33 a barrel, or 2.8 percent, to settle at $85.54 a barrel. "From a macro perspective, global supply is tight relative to demand, which is the result of general underinvestment across the industry after the pandemic, so spare capacity today is limited and prices will move with demand because there is not a lot of short-term capacity that can come to market," Darren, CEO of ExxonMobil Oil, said in an interview. So as long as the market stays tight, you're going to see more volatility and higher prices.
On the whole, crude oil next Monday's opening operation is suggested to retreat to do more on the dips!
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USOIL: Crude oil opened lower
Today, crude oil opened lower, after a high of 88.1, crude oil fell in shock. Overall, crude oil is still down in the short term, the operation is recommended to withdraw to near the 85.6 support level, and the above is concerned about the resistance near 88.3-90.
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US Oil SPOT | Perspective for the new week | Follow-upThe week concluded with crude prices surging by a staggering 7%, leaving investors on edge as the Middle East crisis intensified. Israel's announcement of a ground assault on Gaza propelled the region into a new phase of heightened tensions, further fueling market uncertainty. As we look ahead to the coming week, two pivotal factors will shape the direction of oil markets. Firstly, the extent to which the conflict in the Middle East escalates and its potential impact on oil supplies in the world's leading oil-producing region. Secondly, all eyes will be on the eagerly awaited weekly update on US crude stockpiles, set to be released on Wednesday.
Notably, last week witnessed a significant surge in crude stocks, with exports experiencing a sharp decline of nearly 2 million barrels, bringing the daily average to 3.067 million barrels compared to the previous week's 4.956 million barrels. These developments set the stage for a captivating week ahead, filled with anticipation and potential market shifts. Let's explore what lies in store for us in the upcoming week.
US Oil Technical Analysis:
In this video, we delve deep into the 4-hour timeframe, dissecting key supply and demand zones to uncover invaluable insights into the potential trajectory of price action for USOILSPOT in the week ahead.
Join us as we delve into a comprehensive technical analysis of the US oil market, exploring trends, key levels, and chart patterns that hold the key to unlocking profitable opportunities. Don't miss out on this golden opportunity to elevate your understanding of the future path of USOILSPOT. Stay ahead of the curve and gain a distinct competitive edge by immersing yourself in this price-action-based technical analysis.
Disclaimer Notice:
Please be aware that margin trading in the foreign exchange market, including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, and other instruments, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculative material, including all data, is provided by me for educational purposes only and to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not assume any responsibility for its accuracy.
It is important that you carefully evaluate your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level. Before making any investment, it is advisable to consult with your independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your circumstances.
Please note that I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information provided, and I am not liable for any loss or damage that may directly or indirectly result from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications associated with it.
Remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Keep this in mind while considering any investment opportunities.
USOIL: All day short - term trading
Crude oil fluctuated little throughout the day, with the main volatility range between 86.3 and 87.2, and we seized the opportunity to go short on highs and long on lows in this range.
Today's trading is mainly short-term trading, the effect is relatively good, the harvest of nearly 13 points of profit, to achieve our expected effect!
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USOIL: Oil today analysis
The International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday that geopolitical risks in the Middle East have escalated following Hamas attacks on Israel, with oil markets on edge and uncertainty about how things will play out or how far the conflict could spread. In its closely watched oil market report for October, the IEA said: "A sharp escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East is keeping markets on edge. The region accounts for more than a third of global seaborne oil trade.
Oil prices surged on Monday after attacks by Hamas against Israel reignited tensions in the Middle East and the war premium reappeared in the market. Crude oil market yesterday morning opened at 83.21 US dollars/barrel, after the market first pulled up, the daily peak reached 85.28 US dollars/barrel, after the market fell strongly, the daily minimum to 82.35 US dollars/barrel
Short-term strategy reference: high probability scenario: bearish below 85.6, target 83.2-82.5; Low probability scenario: Bullish above 85.6, target 86.5-87.2
USOIL: Today's crude oil analysis and operation
Crude oil yesterday's typical interval arrangement, the highest 86.7, the lowest 85, the daily line closed small Yin at 85.9, the four-hour chart of the large interval, the top 87 will be an important resistance point in this interval, the lower focus on the 84 break, the breakthrough will fill the gap; From the point of view of the 1-hour line, the lower focus on the 85 support situation, coupled with the current Palestinian-Israeli conflict, may have a certain impact on oil prices, and the day is mainly low and high
The specific layout is as follows:
(1) below see 85/85.3 long, loss 84.5, target 86.2-86.5 break on the look
(2) Above, focus on the breakthrough of 87
USOIL: Oil today analysis
The crude oil on Monday swung back to 84.8 after moving higher, yesterday's high open gap after the repair of the inter-zone is not large, due to the international environment, the potential of the ground edge, the recent period can be maintained much lower, Stay in the day 85.4 attached near many, the upper side 87 attached near can be empty.
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USOIL: Oil today analysis
The outbreak of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, if more forces are involved in the subsequent, the Middle East oil producers may be directly affected, crude oil production may be in short supply, and oil prices may rise more sharply. In the outbreak of the war between Russia and Ukraine last year, the oil price rose sharply from $90 to the highest price of $130, and it took half a year to return to the $90 line. In summary, the current turmoil in the Middle East has attracted much attention, and the limelight has overshadowed the OPEC+ production cut plan, and the follow-up trend needs to be paid close attention.
Crude oil fell sharply to $81.50 last week, the direction of the daily bullish line has not changed, if the resistance level of $89 above the smooth stand, the rally can be expected. In the evening, focus on the support of the $84.1 line, if it breaks down, it may test the strong support level of $81.5. High probability scenario: bullish above 84.1, target 87.1-88.2; Low probability scenario: Bear below 84.1, target 83.0-81.5.
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USOIL: Crude oil analysis and operation
With Opec + pledging to curb oil supply until the end of the year and Asia's economic recovery expected to expand again, we expect global oil inventories to fall by 70 million barrels over the next three months. As a result, we now see Brent averaging $91 / BBL in the second half, up from $81 / BBL previously. Still, our forecast for 2024 remains at $90 per barrel, thanks to an increase of 1.2 million BPD in non-OPEC supply from Guyana, Canada, U.S. shale, and Brazil. In addition, if sanctions on Venezuela and Iran are further eased, supply will increase by 450,000 BPD in 2024. As Opec + politics and global geopolitics allow, the increased supply will help restrain further price increases. Oil prices surged 3.50 per cent yesterday, with intraday highs above $95. After the opening of the morning, oil prices surged on the inertia, the high point entered the $95 mark, and the current pressure is below 94, and the momentum of turning the gun is still strong. In operation, it is still a reasonable choice to short the rally. Short-term strategy reference: High probability scenario: bearish below 95.0, target 93.0-92.0; Low probability scenario: Bullish above 92.0, target 95.0-96.2.
Crude Oil: Strategy Advice Short
The oil supply outlook remains tight, with Russia and Saudi Arabia both cutting output through the end of the year, while the number of operating oil rigs in the United States has dropped to its lowest level since the end of the year. U.S. refiners are also cutting production capacity, further tightening supply.
While these factors are expected to continue to support prices, overall economic concerns are limiting oil prices' upside potential. In the short term, oil prices will continue to be impacted by the above factors. Rising interest rates, a stronger dollar and worries about the global economy appear to be offsetting the benefits of limited supply. However, with the start of China's National Day Golden Week, a potential rebound in tourist numbers may bring some support to oil prices. But until global economic concerns are eased, oil market sentiment tends to be bearish.
Short-term strategy reference: High probability scenario: bearish above 90.6, target 90.0-90.6. Small probability scenario: bullish below 88.8, target 88.5-88.9 Market comment: RSI technical indicator runs downward!
USOIL: Today's operation plan
Crude oil on Wednesday morning: At present, crude oil is the daily low of 89.8 line, whether the bears begin to force or a false shot to see today to verify, so first maintain the range of 89.3-91.8.
Today's operation suggestion:
Rally to 90.6-91 short;
Retracting to 89.3 Try a long light position.
USOIL: Crude oil analysis and layout
Crude oil last week unilateral strong pull up, is currently in high volatility, this wave is still not over, is still a callback to do more, four-hour chart, last week fell back to the mid-track quickly pull up, back just to prepare for the rise, this week is still open at a high level, the current volatility around 91.3, intra-day focus on important support level 89.5/90.3, This position is also the support point of the rail in the four-hour chart, and the position of the tail plate can be more!
Specific layout:
USOIL:BUY@89.5-90.3 TP 92.0
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Crude oil: trend analysis continues to push back more
Although we are currently at the end of a phased rise in crude oil, the bulls are still very strong and continue to hit new highs. Therefore, we still maintain a bullish and long thinking before the necessary turning signal appears. The only thing that needs to be paid attention to is the number of each transaction. Risk control must be strictly implemented to prevent emergencies from occurring. Still looking for opportunities to continue trading lower during the day.
The main reason why crude oil is bullish is that the upward trend of wave 3 and wave 5 is still continuing, and there is still a slight retracement on the way, and it is still bullish. It has now entered the final peak moment of wave 3 of wave 5-5. Crude oil pressure 91.30~92.10, support 91.4
Crude oil: exceeded my expectations and keeps rising
Crude oil bulls continue to take the initiative in the market and pulled up again yesterday. It is now close to the previous secondary high of 85.5. This is not the ultimate goal of the bulls, but the only thing that needs to be considered is that there may be an adjustment within the day and then rise. In the short term The node still looks at the previous high of 87 as the target.
According to the deduction of the wave trading system, the main reason why crude oil is expected to rise is that: the overall rising rhythm of waves 3 and 5 has gradually changed from the initial shock upward to a unilateral rise, and the performance of bulls has become more and more obvious. Crude oil pressure 85~85.3,
For crude oil operations, it is recommended to buy at 84.5, with a target of 84.0~84.50. (The point may be revised as the market changes during the day, subject to real-time strategy)
Crude oil: back above 80 again
Oil prices rebounded at the opening and remained stable. On the whole, whether it is the Fed’s interest rate hike expectations cooling, the dollar’s fall, the rise in U.S. stocks, or the possible impact of U.S. hurricanes on supply, coupled with a sharp decline in crude oil inventories and geopolitical tensions, they all tend to support oil prices. Technical The short-term bullish signal has also strengthened, and oil prices are expected to retest the resistance near the August high of 84.87.
The trend of crude oil daily chart is currently stable above the short-term moving average, and today it is stable again above the middle rail line. The market outlook will rely on the middle rail line and the short-term moving average to support the bullish rebound. Below, focus on the support around $81.00 and $81.5. In terms of operational thinking, the main focus is to go long and be bullish.
Go long near 81.20, stop loss: 80.70: target 83.00
Crude oil: There is still room for today's strategy to rise
In the U.S. market, WTI crude oil rose and closed down, once rising to $80.7/barrel, but failed to hold the $80 mark, closing down 0.03%, at $79.94/barrel, due to the threat of tropical storms in the U.S. Gulf crude oil production and news that Saudi Arabia may extend the production cut time and other benefits and rise, but the Fed's further interest rate hike worries limit oil prices,
Therefore, oil prices continued to run on the strong side at the beginning of the session. Overall, the probability of the Fed raising interest rates has risen, and increasing demand concerns have limited oil price gains. However, tropical storms in the US Gulf Coast may cause supply disruptions to bring support. Before this week's non-agricultural data, oil prices may remain volatile around US$80/barrel. In the short term, pay attention to the impact of API data and market uncertainties on oil prices.
Short near 81.60, stop loss: 82.20, target 80.60
First step back around 80.40 to go long, stop loss: 79.90, target to be determined