WTI CRUDE OIL Bullish reversal expected.WTI Crude Oil / USOIL is pulling back on the 4hour chart, approaching the Support A level.
This level is where the last two rallies started on Oil.
The 4hour RSI being oversold as now, has coincided with 3 out of 5 major rallies since September 10th, so it is always a desirable level to buy.
Go long and target 78.00 near Resistance A.
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2024-11-12 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
oil - Neutral. 3 legs down are done and bulls got a couple of 1h bars that closed above the 1h 20ema. We have formed a descending triangle which will break out tomorrow and I do think a break to the upside is much more likely than below but it could happen. Bulls want 70 and bears 67. Below 67 would be 66.72 but I doubt bears can get there.
comment : Market is trying to find a bottom. Can wait for a breakout and not trade this contracting range. Bears want 67 and then 66.72 and bulls 70 if they can break above the bear trend line. Not more magic to it.
current market cycle: trading range (big triangle on the daily chart)
key levels: 63 - 78
bull case: Bulls see the 3 clear legs down and now want a correction to at least the 50% retracement at 70.30. Today they finally printed multiple bars above the 1h 20ema and they are producing good buying pressure at 68. Bears will likely try 1-2 more times at 68 before they could give up and we see the upside breakout.
Invalidation is below 67.50.
bear case: I do think it’s tough to be a bear below 68. Downside could be limited to 66.72 and where would you put your stop? 69? Could work but I would not. Market has not traded below 67 for more than 5 days in September. Ultimately bears want to retest the October low at 65.74 and they have more arguments on their side than the bulls and yet I still don’t think the risk:reward selling below 68 is worth it.
Invalidation is above 69.3.
short term: Neutral until bulls break 69.3. No interest in selling below 68.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-20 : No idea where this wants to go in the remaining 2 months of this year so I am neutral until we have a better pattern. The big triangle on the weekly chart is alive and until that changes, no more updates.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Buying 68 has been profitable and will likely continue to be.
#202445 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
wti crude oil futures: Neutral between 68 - 73. Bulls have no tried to have a daily close above 73 for a month and could not get it. Friday’s bear bar looks like the turning point from which we will test lower. First bear target is a daily close below 70, followed by 68 and then 67. I doubt we get below 66.8 and rather print another nested triangle.
Quote from last week:
comment: The trading range expanded some but not much. On the weekly chart the September and October lows do seem to be respected and holding but since bulls fail to trade above 72.33, we are forming more nested triangles inside the big one on the monthly chart. For now the range is 65 - 72.33 until broken.
comment: Market is now trying for 4 weeks to get below 73 and still failing. Friday’s bar is decent enough that bears could have given up and market has to drop down to 68 or lower to 67 to find more buyers. The trading range 68 - 73 is still not broken and until it is, that is the range to play. I just expecting bears to be stronger next week than the bulls.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 68 - 73
bull case: Bulls failed so many times below 73 now, they will probably only try again at 68 or even lower. We are making higher lows since September, so for now I expect buyers to step in above 67.5. If bulls keep it above 70, I would be surprised and we chop more between 70 and 73 until one side clearly gives up.
Invalidation is below 66.7.
bear case: Bears established strong resistance under 73 and we still have an open gap there. Their next target is to get a daily close below 70 to make much more bulls cover and then I expect the selling to accelerate down to 68 or even 67. Funny thing to watch currently is that the daily, weekly and monthly 20ema are as flat and close together like I have never seen it on markets before. This market is in absolute balance between 70 and 72. Mean reversion strategies for Oil must have made a killing in 2024.
Invalidation is above 73.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral again. Clear range and bearish pattern with limited downside. Scalp and don’t overstay your welcome in positions.
→ Last Sunday we traded 69.49 and now we are at 70.38. Good outlook but it’s not hard to be neutral and be right about it in this market.
short term: Neutral again. Range is unbroken, play it until it breaks.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-10 : Unless an event comes up, this will very likely close around 70 for the year.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Nothing
WTI OIL targeting the 1D MA200 at $76.50WTI Oil (USOIL) managed to close yesterday above its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) despite breaking below it intraday. Even if we see a pull-back like September 25-26, Oil is more likely to test the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) as since the August 12 High, the market is practically ranging between the Support and Resistance Zones. Our Target is $76.50.
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#202443 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
wti crude oil: Dead zone 70 - 72. Best not to trade it and wait for the breakout. I have no opinion on who wins it. For me to believe the bullish breakout to be good, I need to see follow through selling above 73, otherwise it could still be just a retest of the previous support.
Quote from last week:
comment: Bulls started ok on Monday and the close was neutral but Tuesday really killed every last bull who bought above 71 and hoped for a second leg up above 75. Market has now left a giant bearish island reversal between 71 and 72.5 and that is as bearish as it gets. Bulls last hope now is to hold above the bull trend line at 68.
comment: Bulls actually managed to hold it above 68 and the trend line but failed to close the bear gap completely. This leaves us in nowhere land between 70-72 and a proper triangle. Play that until it’s clearly broken. No more deeper analysis needed.
current market cycle: trading range (triangle on the weekly tf)
key levels: 63 - 78
bull case: Bulls need a daily close above 72.7 for a chance of retesting north of 75. Below 68 things get really spicy.
Invalidation is below 68.
bear case: Bears need a daily close below the bull trend lines (also head & shoulders neckline) for lower prices. First would be below 69 and second is below 68. If they manage that, market is free to test down to 66 and then 64. If the neckline breaks, measured move would be 59ish but that is very far fetched.
Invalidation is above 72.7.
outlook last week:
short term : Neutral 68-70 but leaning bearish near 71. Not the best spot to trade currently.
→ Last Sunday we traded 68.69 and now we are at 71.78. Decent outlook.
short term: Neutral 68-70 but leaning bearish near 71. Not the best spot to trade currently.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-20 : No idea where this wants to go in the remaining 2 months of this year so I am neutral until we have a better pattern. The big triangle on the weekly chart is alive and until that changes, no more updates.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Adjusted bear gap
WTI turns sharply lowerCrude oil prices were over 3% higher this week, but as i mentioned in my previous post, the risks remained tilted towards the downside following a 9% drop the previous week. Lo and behold, WTI has now turned sharply lower after testing broken support between $71.50 to $72.50 area in the last couple of days. At the time of writing, it was back to the $70.00 level, which, if breached decisively, could pave the way for more losses in the days ahead.
Middle East tensions have slightly stabilized as Israel has so far refrained from attacking Iran and has said it will not target its nuclear facilities. However, the situation remains volatile due to Israel’s ongoing operations in Lebanon, which has reignited concerns about disrupted oil supply.
Meanwhile, the oil market is also cautious about a possible Trump victory in the US election, as his policy of boosting oil production could lead to oversupply and further price declines.
by Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
2024-10-22 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Oil - Bull surprise and the actual breakout above both the daily 20ema and the bear trend line. Bear gap to 72.6 is not yet closed but with good follow through tomorrow they could get it. I do think longs are much better here than shorts and we could finally disappoint bears again. Could retest the bear trend line tomorrow, that means that a deep pullback to 69.7 or 70 is possible. There I would look for longs again.
comment: Bullish breakout and my major trend reversal theory was good. Bulls now should not let this drop below 69.5 again. We could see a retest of ~70 again before we go higher. I will only look for longs on this tomorrow and anything below 70.5 is a decent trade.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 68 - 71
bull case: Targets for the bulls are now 72.6 to close the bear gap and above that is 75. No more words needed for this.
Invalidation is below 69.5.
bear case: Bears need to get this below 69.5 again to continue the trading range or otherwise we see a bigger move upwards to the given targets. Have we already seen the giving up from the bears today? If we stay above 70.5, then it’s likely so. If they get it below 69.5 again, next target is 69.26 where I expect most bull stops to be and that would be a very important price for both sides. If bears print 69.5, a continuation of the trading range 68 - 70.5 is most likely.
Invalidation is above 72.3.
short term: Bullish as long as we stay above 69.5. Neutral below.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-20 : No idea where this wants to go in the remaining 2 months of this year so I am neutral until we have a better pattern. The big triangle on the weekly chart is alive and until that changes, no more updates.
current swing trade: Will do a swing long on a pullback tomorrow.
trade of the day: Long since bar 6 or the double bottom around 69.3.
2024-10-03 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
oil - Continues to be wild. Got stopped out too many times today and wanted to hurt myself. Huge tails on daily bars above and today a 350 (5%) tick ripper. Bulls just melted through the bear trend line. Can absolutely be a bull trap and we see another giant pullback but for now I would not short it. If anything, I am not touching this for couple of day I think.
comment : Market was very two sided until the spike above 72.20 happened. Market also did not accomplish anything after that spike, which leaves us not that much smarter going into tomorrow. It could very well see a big pullback or even proving to be a bull trap near the bear trend line.
current market cycle : trading range inside big broad bear channel from the daily chart. If bulls continue above 74, it’s likely a new bull trend and could get us to 78.
key levels : 66 - 74
bull case: Bulls let it drop below 67 and still managed to rip 300 ticks higher. Wild times currently. If you are a bull and want to buy this, you need really wide stops or wait for insane pullbacks. Not easy to trade. Bulls want a breakout above the bear trend line and hit 75. Above 75 is most likely no resistance until 77. Since the pullbacks are so deep, I doubt there are many bulls who want to buy 74 in hopes of breaking the trend line but I am open for surprises.
Invalidation is below 70.4.
bear case: Bears have the do or die moment at 74. Defend the bear trend or give up until we hit the next big bear trend line around 78. Given the erratic moves, bears are alive and well, mostly anyway. Anything below 71 would be a huge win for the bears tomorrow. Daily 20 ema is also flat, decreases the chance for the bulls.
Invalidation is above 74.2.
short term: Neutral around 74. Bearish below 73 for 70 again. If bulls can continue above 74.2, we could see more giving up by the bears and another strong move to 76 or 78. Very low probability though.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-08: Bears broke below multi month support and want a retest of 64.46 or lower. Right now the selling is a bit too steep to be sustainable. When we get a more complex pullback and form a decent channel, I will write a longer update here. Can this bear trend be the start of a bigger where we see Oil below 50$ again? I have absolutely no idea but the current daily chart can not not lead to that conclusion.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Not going there today. You can’t expect this spike. Don’t fool yourself.
WTI OIL Short-term pullback possible but doesnt change the trendLast week (August 06, see chart below), we made a strong bullish case on WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) and why on the 1M time-frame, the long-term target is $110.00, a symmetric approach on the 10-year Super Cycles:
Today we shift back to the shorter term 1D time-frame, as the price went from $73.00 to $80.00 within a week, and we are looking for potential pull-backs. Short-term corrections on medium-term Channel Ups have been common in the past 1.5 year and are displayed by the red ellipse patterns.
Yesterday's rejection took place on the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which is something that also took place on January 29 2024. Assuming that a new Channel Up will emerge, we expect it to reach at least the 1.5 Fibonacci extension at $91.50, similar to the April 05 2024 High.
There are numerous Resistance levels involved this time however, with the strongest being the Lower Highs trend-line that started after the September 28 2023 High. As a result caution is advised once the price approaches that level.
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2024-07-04 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Good follow through by the bears and a clear break below the bull channel. If we continue down from here, I would be surprised. More likely is another retest from the bulls to 83/84. Selling is strong enough that we have a decent chance of 84.52 being the high of this bull trend that’s now over and we are in a trading range at the highs. Odds strongly favor the bears since we are in a huge triangle.
current market cycle: Trading range
key levels: 80 - 84
bull case: Bulls failed at the 1h 20ema multiple times today but held it above 82 which means we are forming a smaller descending triangle which will likely break out early tomorrow. Retest of the bull channel to 83.5 is reasonable.
Invalid below 82.
bear case: Bears showed strength by consecutive decent bear bars on the daily chart. They want the 1h 20ema to be resistance as long as possible and their next target is the daily 20ema at 81.2ish which is also the recent trading range and a magnet.
short term: Two bear trend lines which can both work and we will only find out tomorrow. Market should stay below 82.9 if bears are in control. If bulls break above, can see 83.4/84 again. So looking for shorts near 1h 20ema and upper bear trend lines. Long scalps above 83.
medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 86 (could also be 87 but for now I see the spike above 83 as a failed breakout of the triangle. We hit the lower trend line and now we will test back up to above 83. —will update this Wednesday
current swing trade: Small short initiated and will add on higher if necessary. Plan to hold this to at least 76 with profit taking/adding on in between.
trade of the day: Look at all the bars with a tail above 82.7. That’s more than enough reason and time to place some shorts because market is screaming at you, that bulls are not strong enough above 82.7.
#202428 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Bears last stand is 84 and my choppy outlook was drawn 3 or 4 weeks ago. My outlook is the same as last weeks. More sideways movement under 84 needed until bears give up or bulls strongly break above again and we will then most certainly see 86 fast and decent chance this time they get to 90 again. I lean slightly bearish.
Quote from last week:
comment: High of the week was 82.72, so 22 ticks above my lower bull target. Most was said in my tl;dr. Bulls trying to break above 82 but can’t a one single daily close above that price. Market will also break out soon. After last week, I see this as 50/50 who get’s the breakout.
comment: Bulls got the breakout again, retested it and held above 82.74. I do think the high is here in the price area below 86 but market will probably have to spend more time here before bears can potentially trade it back down. In April we spent 14 days at the highs until market broke below, retested and went down for good. I expect the same pattern.
current market cycle: trading range inside the big triangle. Market should stay below 86 or this take is probably wrong. On smaller tf we are still inside the bull channel.
key levels: 80-86
bull case: Another breakout for the bulls but the volume is increasing and the selling pressure is building. If bulls can keep this long enough above 80, bears might give up again and the trend could continue but it’s hard to argue after 3 pushes up and the clear triangle pattern on higher tf.
Invalidation is below 81.3.
bear case: Bears want this to be a lower high since market has been doing this for 2 years now. April high was 86.27 so there is your sl if you want to short this. I do think bears want to break the bull channel first, put in another retest of 84ish for a tripple top or head & shoulders before they sell more aggressively again. They see this bull trend with the 3 pushes as done and now they want to get back below 75 again. You play the best pattern on the highest time frame because the higher the time frame the more reliable the pattern is. If multiple pattern on multiple tf align, even better. On a 1h chart we are also forming bull wedges which can break to the downside any day now.
Invalidation is above 86.27.
outlook last week:
“short term: Still slightly favoring the bulls because of the highers highs and higher lows but breakout above need to happen next week. Once we hit 83/84, I think next 10 points will be made to the down side again.”
→ Last Sunday we traded 81.54 and now we are at 83.16. High was 84.52 and I gave you 84. +246 if you will. Hope you made some.
short term: Bearish but I wait for bull channel break and bigger selling pressure. Can come fast or take the whole week. All bullish targets are met and as I wrote last week, next 10 points will probably be made to the down side.
medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 82/84. The high of the triangle got tested until mid of April and we have now tested the lows around 72.5. We are at the bear trend line and odds favor the bears if they stay below 86.27 for trading back down below 76 again.
current swing trade: Will short once we break the bull channel and we see decent selling pressure.
chart update: Removed the bull wave series but all bearish patterns were drawn 2-3 weeks ago.
WTI Crude Oil - 4H Still BullishWTI Crude Oil shows promising bullish momentum as it consolidates above a key static support zone, indicating potential for further gains. The price action demonstrates two major bullish legs, with the current position in the middle of the second major leg, suggesting continued upward movement.
Additionally, the presence of a second minor leg forming suggests that the bullish momentum might lead to a breakout, propelling prices to higher targets. Traders should monitor the minor leg’s completion and potential further advances in the price of oil, taking advantage of the bullish trend.
2024-06-25 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
wti crude oil
comment: Trading range at the highs but bears printing bigger bars and they broke out of the bull channel that started 2 weeks ago. Measured move down would bring us to around the breakout retest price area 78.5 / 78.8. Bulls still want to break above 82 for 83/84 and test the bear trend lines again.
current market cycle: Trading range
key levels: 80 - 82
bull case: Bulls still see this as a second leg of a pullback around the lower bull trend line and they want to start their third leg (W5) up to 83/84. They need to keep it above 80 or bears might get cheeky and want to push it to the daily ema around 78.8, which would also be a breakout retest.
Invalid below 80.
bear case: Bears are not able to print two decent looking consecutive bear bars on higher time frames. Until they get much stronger or give up again, best they can probably hope for is sideways around 80. Selling today looks like a leg inside a trading range and not a stronger pullback below 80.
short term: Neutral 80-82. It’s moving sideways. Don’t make it more complicated.
medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 86 (could also be 87 but for now I see the spike above 83 as a failed breakout of the triangle. We hit the lower trend line and now we will test back up to above 83. —will update this Wednesday
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buy low, sell high and scalp. Clear key levels given
OIL (WTI) - 4H Sell SetupIn the past hours, OIL (WTI) experienced a sharp rise driven by news of Iran's president's death, which significantly impacted market sentiment.
This surge allowed OIL to break above the bearish channel and catch the liquidity over the resistance zone, as illustrated on the chart.
However, despite this upward spike, the price action suggests that OIL may continue its downward trajectory within the descending channel.
Traders should monitor this closely as the price looks set to resume its fall, adhering to the prevailing bearish trend.
The liquidity hunting above the resistance zone indicates potential for further declines as the market reverts to its established downward path.
a daily price action after hour update - oilGood evening and i hope you are well.
wti crude oil
bull case: Amazing day by the bulls. They broke strongly out of the bear flag and made the market always in long on the daily so i expect follow through to 78 or higher.
bear case: Bears see this as a trading range and they want the market to form a lower high below 78. After such a strong move on the daily, bears expect bulls to take profits and the market probably will go sideways before another leg up or down.
short term: neutral here - valid targets on both sides and today was strong enough for a breather over the next 1-2 days. If bulls manage to keep this running, 80 is highly probable but first they need a higher high above 79.
medium-long term: Sideways until clear break of range between 70-80
trade of the day: long → see chart
WTI crude looks set to retrace before its next big leg higherWTI appears set tor a cheeky retracement. Volumes were falling during its leg higher from $68, and Wednesday closed with an exhaustion candle. Note the strong trading activity around $70 which indicates some bears were caught short and bulls initiated, which assumes short-covering helped fuel the rally and any retracement towards $70 could also be supported.
From here we’re looking for prices to revert to $70. But given the strong support around the June lows / $68 and false break of $70, the bigger picture view is for a bullish rally to develop following a retracement heading into the new year.
$80 seems feasible as an initial target, around the 200-day EMA. But as you’ll see in the next post, a bigger bullish reversal could be unfolding on the weekly chart.
Understanding the Ripple Effects of U.S. Inventory Data on WTIThe American Petroleum Institute's latest report indicates a significant draw in U.S. oil inventories – a larger-than-expected decrease of 5.2 million barrels. But what does this mean for the market?
This drop in inventories typically signals a tightening supply, which, in theory, should push oil prices up. However, the data also showed an increase in gasoline and distillates inventories, suggesting a contrasting scenario of weakened demand, particularly in the U.S., the world's largest fuel consumer. This weakened demand is further evidenced by the ongoing impact of a severe winter storm, restricting travel and, consequently, fuel usage.
Technical analysis adds another layer to this narrative. The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), a trend-following momentum indicator, shows sell signs, while the RSI (Relative Strength Index) remains neutral. For market watchers, these indicators suggest potential shifts, with bears possibly entering at a point around $71.88 a barrel, pushing prices down to support levels of $69.42. Conversely, should the trend reverse, resistance might be met near $74.34 a barrel.
Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
WTI OIL Rejection on the 4H MA50, sell if the 4H MA200 breaks.WTI Oil (USOIL) got emphatically rejected yesterday on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and formed another Lower High on the emerging Channel Down. The price is now approaching the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) on an additional sell signal as the 4H MACD just completed a Bearish Cross, the first since the one that started this correction at the top on August 10.
As a result, we are waiting for this bearish continuation confirmation, and will sell after a 4H candle closing below the 4H MA200. Our target will by 76.00 (just above the 1D MA50 (red trend-line)).
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WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 8/11/23For Friday, the 81.49 - 81.64 area can contain selling through the balance of the year, above which 86.15 remains a 2 - 3 week target, 102.96 attainable by the end of the year.
In the more immediate vicinity, 84.14 can contain session strength, while closing above 84.15 indicates 86.15 within several days, able to contain weekly buying pressures - once tested the market susceptible to falling back to 81.49 long-term support within 1 - 2 weeks.
A daily settlement above 86.15 indicates 92.93 - 93.53 over the following 3 - 5 weeks, where the market can top out on a monthly basis.
Downside Friday, closing below 81.49 indicates a good August high, 78.02 then expected by the end of next week, 70.85 attainable by the end of September.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 8/10/23For Thursday, the 81.49 - 81.66 area can contain selling through the balance of the year, above which 86.28 remains a 2 - 3 week target, 102.96 attainable by the end of the year.
In the more immediate vicinity, 84.18 can contain session activity, above which 86.28 is attainable intraday and able to contain weekly buying pressures, once tested the market susceptible to falling back to 81.49 long-term support within 1 - 2 weeks.
A daily settlement above 86.28 indicates 92.93 - 93.53 over the following 3 - 5 weeks, where the market can top out on a monthly basis.
Downside Thursday, closing below 81.49 indicates a good August high, 77.86 then expected within 3 - 5 days, 70.77 by the end of September.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 8/8/23For Tuesday, the 81.49 - 81.71 area can contain selling through the balance of the year, above which 86.54 remains a 2 - 3 week target, 102.96 attainable by the end of the year.
Upside Tuesday, 84.17 can contain session strength, while closing above 84.17 indicates 86.54 within several days, able to contain weekly buying pressures and the point to settle above for yielding 92.93 - 93.53 over the following 3 - 5 weeks, where the market can top out on a monthly basis.
Downside Tuesday, closing below 81.49 indicates a good August high, and quite possibly through the balance of the year, 75.49 then considered 1 - 2 week target, possibly yielding 62.14 by the end of the year.