We need something other than OPEX's volatility to break out of the down slopping trend line. Indecision - Emotions Bulls VS. Bears Chopping Vs Grinding Buying time for a catalyst to show up or NOT :-) !!!
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September Closed the @ 19.71 yesterday, an important Level for the Continuous Contract to Observe, for now, it will change again. CASH/SPOT VIX @ 17.81 this morning. CSH Will Converge to M1 (October) into next Tuesday/Wednesday. There will be a Gap in the Continuous Contract as long as the VX Curve remains in Contango - presently the spread is 205 Ticks x 1,...
This isn't financial advice because i'm not a licensed financial advisor. I think we can all feel the fishiness thats been in the air like a sewage spill into the ocean. I'm confident that we've seen the top of 4945.50 and for now theres no turning back. Nothing is transitory in the world that we have the pleasure of inhabiting in the era that we are at. US CPI...
I circled the same area I am observing where I'm noticing similarities. I expect a nice build-up here before the continuation up. Seems to be holding up exactly where we where at last sept 2020
CPI Year over Year @ 4% / Month over Month @ 0.2% - a continuuing build for Inflation. FED Bostic indicated "Inflation" is no longer transitory. The Data supports his statement with the continuing build @ 2.4% annualized. The FOMC statement @ 2PM EST will provide the Fuel for a potential Taper Tantrum. The 3AM EST Prop on EU Session Open has failed once again...
Important Note, the Roll Yield is important for the VXX. I have heard countless YouTube and Forum Gurus dismiss the VXX as a Junk Derivative. A Scam... Nothing is further from the Truth. That statement demonstrates how there are far too many "Gurus" with no understanding of Volatility itself. The VXX is comprised of the 30 day Short Term Rolling...
Next Wednesday the M2 will "Settle" becoming the Front Month or M1. 100% of the Constant 30 Day Maturity will be concentrated on this Date. Each day thereafter, M1 will begin to flow to M2 (December 2021) at a rate of roughly 3-4% per day, depending on Traading/Calendar Days. When the VIX Curve is in Contango - M2, M3, M4 higher than M1 we will see a Gap left...
There will be 3 important charts for the VX Curve 1. M1, the Current Contract (October) which will see Rollover begin to execute. 2. M2, the next month forward Contract (November) 3. The Spread or Roll Yield Capture. For the purposes of Settlement next week, we will Observe how CASH/SPOT VIX squares with the settling M1 and Begin to see 100% of M1's...
That said... Good Luck Riggers, it will not work. CBOE VVIX Index attempts to represent - volatility of volatility in as much VVIX measures the anticipated volatility of the 30-day forward price of VIX. Simply put - it is measuring the M1 / M2 VIX 30 Day ST Short-term Volatility. For those of you who do not understand how the VIX is calculated, you are...
All one needs to know. Extreme caution is warranted here. I often do not include the larger Dialy targets for the VIX at the Lower Extensions for Price AFTER 4/5 Completes. 12.30
Since the beginning of 2021, 55 % we will probably have a trough this Friday, 22.5% on this Thursday & 11.5 % this Wednesday & 11.25 % on Monday next week !
Still higher lows, trend lines are holding W/ false break out last week. We have OPEX week we could see some volatility as usual since covid's low. Breaking the down sloping line we need something bigger than OPEX volatility to do it.
what Is the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX)? The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) is a real-time index that represents the market's expectations for the relative strength of near-term price changes of the S&P 500 index (SPX). Because it is derived from the prices of SPX index options with near-term expiration dates, it generates a 30-day forward projection of volatility....
Very important weekly close today. If VIX closes above this descending bullish wedge, expect significant volatility for months ahead.
Not breaking below the 50D MA and staying there for a while, just like previous pullbacks we could/might/can have a Golden Cross meaning a "Catalyst is in the pip line already " like in few days/2 weeks tops
Follow up of Head and Shoulders development Look for Key levels and news. We need positive news to go up... Risk on into the weekend? Possible.
As Roll / Settle approaches for the VX M1 - M2 --- they are attempting to fend off the 50/200 cross for the VIX... good luck riggers on the trigger. M2 will appear to have a Gap as the Continuous Contract Squares. Typically we see a front run of Volatility ahead of Roll and things pickup again after settlement as Wednesday to Friday is EOW and decision time. SO...