CASH/SPOT VIX will converge with AUGUST CT @ Close as it always does. As we move from AUG M1 settle into SEP (M1) / M2 (OCT) the spread is now 24 Ticks. Pay close attention to how it squares end of day. It will provide solid indications for Thursday/Friday EOW trading. Settlement has a decided SKEW to those paying close attention :)
Good morning, folks! It was a relatively quiet overnight session with futures drifting sideways and trading essentially flat as we approach the open. As of 8:45AM the Dow is down -0.20% to 35,187, the S&P is down -0.11% to 4,438.75, the Russell is up 0.11% to 2,176.90, and the Nasdaq is down -0.3% to 14,989.75. Traders will be keeping a close eye on today's Fed...
Vix continues to trend higher. We're sitting at a 17 handle and based on the stochastic we may be about to take another leg higher after the recent pull back from 25. I can't believe risk protection is so cheap right now, it's insane. Yet most market participants don't think they need it. One thing I know for certain is large traders have been accumulating risk...
Canopy Growth (WEED) is getting absolutely hammered. We're down over 7% this month after crashing over 20% in July. Imo, the stock is going to blow up when the US finally decriminalizes Cannabis. The opportunities for hemp are endless and of course the recreational market for drinks, bud, and all the rest is booming in legal markets. If I see a sub 20's print,...
The Dollar (DXY) is on a tear today. We're up over .50% on the day and we look poised to retest the wedge as resistance once again. Will we see a breakout here, finally? That would only mean one thing, folks, risk sells off heavily. Let's see how the week shapes up with the Fed minutes tomorrow potentially revealing a taper schedule to begin as early as October...
Getting awfully tight. Macd is starting compress pretty tight. I fully expect some volatility in the next week or so.
Protection is being bid again in a larger than usual front run of Gap Fills below for the September Contract. Don Jerome Pablo Escobar Gavaria Powell made certain yesterday's close was another barn burner after announcing September would see the taper arrive. Thinking about thinking about thinking about thinking has concluded. All the signs were there, and......
VIX has broken the trend and retested, now we will be heading for a long.
Chopping along on low Volume while the likes of Fanboi carnage is readily apparent... not a confidence builder. Tick Tock into Wednesday... chip chop the top. Even the Apes bought it, trendy. A throw-over would be the absolute perfect setup for this impending, incipient, unimaginable - decline. This week will be one for the books.
Hi folks! As you may know, FINRA published the Margin Debt Statistics for July the other day. As you may also know, tops in prolonged and explosive runs in margin debt usually precede big corrections/crashes in the S&P500 by a couple of months The Margin Debt reading was down 4.3% from July after 15 consecutive months of increase (!) Here is my idea on how...
Buy J U N K, chase green bars, chase false overthrows... Patience, Analysis, Temperament, Constitution of Trade Plan - Probability favors all. BTD chasers. We'll happily take the opposing trade and here it is: Volatility Crush Reversal VIX Curve - ON Gap Fills of VIX Cash/Spot & VX Curve we will have completed inverse ladders on the...
My early warning indicator can offer warning signals well in advance of market turbulence. It can also help on the long side by giving confirmational signals when in agreement with a trend. It recently had a negative cross and is enough for me to raise an eyebrow and err on the side of caution. There are times when a signal crosses negative only to return...
Best VIX chart you will ever see (Going to low teens soon) Self-Explanatory. It always went low teens then sub 10's before a spike happens. We are not there yet but getting close to low teens. I see rinse and repeat of the past.
Upbeat economic data and further progress in economic recovery will lead to decrease in the market volatility over time. Because of that we would like to set our short term price target for VIX to 15 USD. Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking...
Ignoring this can be costly. The overall Market Structure is extremely weak. Volumes are minimal, as chasers prefer Calls to limit RISK. Money Velocity (M1) has already imploded. ASIA has already closed many factories, sneakers will become scarce as will many items, The FOMC Minutes will reveal a MAJORITY of FED BOG is locked in favor of Tapering beginning in...
M1/V1 & M2/V2 Roll is in trade. Settlement occurs the same day (Wednesday) as the FED Minutes. We're cool with being early, it's better than late when this blows up and it is setup to do so. The Speculators want a massive blow off. 5K ES everyone. Yeah, naw. Not yet, we need to see a panic sell in order for the FED to double down... and they will. Then, we...
In 2008 over leverage of 440 billion, to todays (2021) 900 billion. 2008 inflation rate 2021 May 4.2 April 4.2 June 5.0 May 5.0 July 5.6 June ...
As the usual suspects attempt Gamma Squeeze after Gamm Squeeze. Bubbles the Chimp decides to take some off. Participants are backing away, $4 Trillion Jimmy Carnie touted on the "Sidelines" isn't coming into the Equity CONplex. It prefers CASH. TLT needs to close those over head Gaps prior to reversing... or does it. VIX coiling in a falling wedge where Wall...