AS Spot VIX moves into the Gap Fill, the ratios are experiencing an extraordinary out of balance situation. This is due to both fear and greed. Greed in Gamma. Fear of Reality. Buckle up, a large decline continues to gain traction while the Riggers do their best to tip the Boat to one side. Justa - bout Mission Accomplished. Near perfect setup in VIX for 200% Gains
A vix.plosion remains in trade, patience will reward holders to the 30s and then 40s as the coiled spring breaks and gives way to a large run to the upside. Cash/Spot VIX coming back into lower range with a 160 tick differentail. We need to see SPOT VIX trade into the 15s for our upside targets to begin their assault on BULLs. Blind sided by a bunch.
Tipping the Boat ahead of CT Roll is stock in trade for the VX Complex Options Writers. Position Rolls across the Markets will have a profound effect this as we begin to square. CASH/SPOT VIX shows further complacency as Volumes dry up. RTY and NQ will lead to the downside as "Independent Producers" (SMALL Businesses) will continue to be croaked as they have...
See RSI wedges. This RSI wedge we currently in has around till November before it either breaks down or up. I'm thinking that it breaks the channel highlighted in black on the chart.... Short term bearish though I think 10-13 is the bottom for August touching the bottom part of the wedge and then a rip to the upside by end of August.
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Can't keep a good trade down. 18.60s remain the clear pivot, although the 19 level appears to be stick. Fryday's have been VIX unfriendly. Perhaps next week. Have a great weekend everyone.
VIX has been trading within a Channel Down since late April 2020 after the markets started to correct themselves following the COVID led March 2020 crash. I have plotted the S&P500 on the chart and as you see from the comparison, the pattern is quite useful in determining when to sell stocks and when to buy. When VIX enters its Lower Lows zone, S&P500 starts to...
Can the Riggers push it through 19 on a closing basis during Friday's Session? For now it is defending 19. It's been a tepid trade the past few days as we watched 12 days of a tight range for trading implode. Patience wins.
Happy Friday, folks! Another week has come and gone, and US Futures (sans the Russell) are glued to the ATH's. Will the nightmare ever end? We drifted higher all day yesterday, only to see yet another short squeeze into the close. The equity inflows are absolutely relentless, and with today's NFP report blowing away expectations (943k vs the 925k expected), and...
This will be a quick post as today we are witnessing something in the market that could prove to be bullish for the S&P500 in the near future. Most importantly, this could be a move that FINALLY leads to a definitive direction for the markets and that is in the fact that the S&P500 Volatility Index today has broken its trend that we have been in and now appears to...
30 /38 / 45 We favor the 40s during the dirty second drop. Algos are working the limits of the Falling Wedge. The VIX-Plosion is dead ahead as resolution is less than two weeks away. The lower compression in Range lows will see a dip-in as often occurs to shake out the weak hands. Cruse Oil should see follow through in the coming weeks. We are beginning to...
Potential Ascending wedge break on #spy, VIX is elevated and testing upper trend channel, spy candle on the daily looks deadly, want to see it bounce back in to channel or we could be in trouble. Keep in mind the last time the market rose this many months in a row, was right before the great depression. I am not normally a doomsayer and play both sides however, I...
Speculation for Macro: - 2018: Trump began trade war with China, and the market had the worst year in a decade (at the time). - 2020: US-China Phase 1 deal is signed, market crashes shortly after. - 2021: Market immediately rebounds and has the greatest bull market in history. IMO it was a run-up then sell the news by insiders, then BTD for the bull run to...
AAII Bullish sentiment Indicator @ All Time Highs. ROC irrational optimism abounds - while sentiment remains extremely negative @ 38%. Housing Prices remain in an extraordinary Bubble with the 10yr approaching 1% from YCC. The ES SPY SPX Trend SLOPE is increasing. USDX appears to be supportive ~ 92. A weak US DX will shove assets higher within the Negative DX...
The VIX Complex has been range bound for the prior 11 Sessions. This is typical Summertime behavior, it is not at all unusual. There is a Micro Gap @ 19.70 that was front run last night in the Globex Session - the FR was 1 Tick or .05 @ 19.75. We closed all of our VX Curve Positions yesterday during the Second Attempt at the Highs. We believe the VIX will...
Good morning, folks! As of 8:45AM on Wednesday morning, US Futures are seeing some light weakness with the Dow down -0.33% to 35,003, the S%P down -0.27% to 4,411, the Nasdaq down -0.10% to 15,046, the the Russell down -0.82% to 2,202.80. The ADP Employment Change came in moments ago at 330k vs the 650k expected, and the weak print has erased some of the overnight...
Good morning, folks! For those of you in Canada, I hope everyone had a great holiday to start the week. Let's get right into today's analysis. After rolling sell programs yesterday to kick-off the month of August, US Futures are drifting higher on Tuesday with the Dow up 0.25% to 34,808, the S&P up 0.22% to 4,389.50, the Russell up 0.46% to 2,221.10, and the...
4422 - Gap and Crap complete. A lower High on smaller timeframes led to Sell Signals which were quickly heeded. The 50/200 are now pointing due South on 5 minute timeframe. Last Thursday the Divergences provided an enormous warning. Negative Histograms are waiting. Chasers are eyeing a considerable "Panic Cycle" setting up whereby the "everything must go...