We will be adding 40 VXM @ 2060. Bring the Curve Totals to 28 CTs.
Our Indications on the VIX Complex have been extreme in their accuracy. We hold an Outsized Position in the Curve. And continue to Build the Position - @ present ~ 24 x 20.2
Last week, in an interview on CNBC, legendary trader and investor Stanley Druckenmiller sounded an alarm. He told reporters on the financial news network, “I can’t find any period in history where monetary and fiscal policy were this out of step with the economic circumstances, not one…I will be surprised if we’re not out of the stock market by the end of the...
Those who follow my ideas know that I am a big proponent of the VIX and how as a trader it tells me what the general "temperature" of the stock market is at a given time. Currently, when looking at the chart and how I have set it up, we can see different areas and levels in relation to risk. If we start with the upper levels, this is a level where SPY is extremely...
Idea for VIX: - VIX short positions unwinding. - Holding higher bottoms, forming a rounded bottom - typical before VIX spikes. - VIX has been in accumulation for a while. GLHF - DPT
Idea for VIX: - Falling Wedge Breakout, Re-test the Wedge and enter upward ML Channel. - Using 2N-2.2N Frequency SL. GLHF - DPT
Speculation for Macro: These are the underlying conditions: - Inflation expectations are what leads risk appetite. After all, who would hold or buy an asset expected to depreciate in value? - Global inflation expectations turning down and have been in a downtrend for decades. Of course it is deflationary. If DEBT fueled GDP growth (for appearances over...
There is a large accumulation of VX Complex Instruments. A warning sign of higher VX to follow. And with the 10/20/50 in Positive Divergence, all signs point to an initial 10% Correction followed by an additional 9% correction. We anticipate the ES can trade below 3910 and overshoot to the downside 3600-3800 range can trade on overshoot. The Bigger Lick...
Time to revisit our SPY/Vix chart (log scale). As you can see we're still at the top of the range, and looking poised for a market correction any week now. The stochastic RSI is showing weakness, with both the RSI and MACD rolling over on the weekly and monthly time frames. Looks like we could be in for a rough couple of months ahead, folks. Trade accordingly...
We added to our VIX Curve Holdings @ 10AM EST. We believe the VIX will breakout of 22.50 range indicated by the Negative Roll Yield. The VIX Complex will be out Largest Holding.
Happy Friday, folks! Welcome to the final trading day of July. What a month it's been, but the real shock here imo is the fact that the S&P has essentially (as of now) tagged 6 straight months of gains. DJ Powell must be exhausted standing at the booth, spinning every story of economic hardship into a love song for his retail permabull ravers. Amazon's earnings...
VIX will move higher as Indices will front run their .382s Negative Roll Yields are always a warning, we alerted traders to this Important Condition on Settlement as V2/M2 exceeded V1/M1 by 8%. 22.50 is the level to watch for a breakout higher. August is a Negative time for the Indices. We maintain large Sell to Opens in AMZN, TSLA, TQQQ, NQ, ES, RTY, MNQ,...
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) daily RSI is overbought (we appear to be rolling over), and we're at 21EMA (w) resistance, as well as retesting the previous high. The bulls may struggle to breach this resistance level, setting us up for a leg lower toward 30k support as early as next week. Hold on to your hats as the stars align for a risk-off sh*tstorm in August across the...
Looks like the bond market knows something stocks don't (again). Same divergence here that we saw running up to the March 2020 crash. We're looking at SPY/M2 compared to the US10Y yield (in white). The last time the 10Y yield was in free fall, stocks continued to climb, ignoring the signal, only to crash a couple months after the divernegce began. Let's see what...
After another run around yesterday on taper talks by Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, global markets are screaming higher, and headed back for their ATH's. As of 8:30AM, the Dow was up 0.34% to 35,051.80, the S&P500 is up 0.18% to 4,408.40, the Russell was up 0.66% to 2,240.10, and the Nasdaq was flat at 15,018.10. China convened a meeting with top banking officials...
Global Futures are trading broadly in the red on Tuesday after drifting sideways for most of Monday. Having said that, we're still at ATH's, and looking like a freight train without breaks. As of 9:00AM the Dow was down -0.25% to 35,055, the S&P was down -0.14% to 4,416, the Russell was down -0.66% to 2,202, and the Nasdaq was up 0.06% to 15,134. Despite the...
S&P VIX STR Index will continue roll to V2/M2 as the constant 30 Day rolling Index weightings between V1/M1 & V2/M2. As a consequence, 82% of the time the VX Futures see time decay close the Roll Yield. Roll Yield is calculated by the spread between V1/M! & V2/M2 as a percentage. The average is roughly 8%, over this percentage an we see Price tend towards a...
Destruction derby could be coming.. if so, everything bubble about to pop. RSI also oversold