Since January there has been a stealth accumulation out the Curve. In March it began to quietly accelerate. While Algo's drove ZN into the 131s, buyers were gobbling up each and every drive lower, building an outsized position which saw Volume peak in May from May 2nd to May 31st. Dark Pools began their acceleration in March. There is a clear trend deeply...
Here we go, folks! After an ugly opex on Friday which saw 30% of SPY, QQQ, IWM, and SPX options expire, leading to heavy selling across the board, futures are extending losses on Monday morning. As of 9AM, the S&P is down -1.21% to 4,266.12, the Dow is down -1.44% to 34,067, the Nasdaq is down -0.95% to 14,532, and the Russell is down -2.22% to 2,113. European...
With Impeccable timing, Telsa Witch Kuh Kuh Woods increased the "innovation" ETF's holding of Tesla. TSLA is presently off 2.22% and with a break of 500 looing large for the EV edifice and Consumers pulling back on all segments of spending, TSLA is ripe for a large decline. Crude Oil's range has expanded to 42-77. This is not going to assist the TESLA Witch no...
The Potential for a Squeeze in BitCoin is rising. 30,000 lets go and Sellers will indeed press their luck should it fail. Selling throughout the EU Session has gained momentum as the VIX broke it's UTL by 4 Ticks. We had issued a cautious note on Indices into July 20-22, 2021 as tensions were beginning to mount in the South China Sea. RTY has failed IT...
AAPL had a Large Participation in Call Activity. As the VXN approaches 19.10 Traders should pay close attention, as should this level fail later today: AAPL will be targeting Micro Fibs between 150-155. The VX broke 16.90 and traded 16.80, this will place pressure on the VXX, UVXY and SPXU. The ES has two gap fills, one just above and one well below. We will...
Here are some hypothetical numbers I formulated, which by the way you can take with a grain of salt. It is for entertainment purposes only. Some Tabloids you may find interesting: 80% of the stock market is now on autopilot. Jun 29, 2019 Algorithmic trading is accounted for around 60-73% of the overall United States equity trading. Feb 5, 2019 Considered by...
I should have made this chart a long time ago... TVC:VIX CBOE:VIX TVC:SPX SPCFD:SPX OANDA:SPX500USD FOREXCOM:SPXUSD AMEX:SPY CAPITALCOM:SPY AMEX:VTI AMEX:UVXY AMEX:SPXU AMEX:SPXS LSE:SPXS CBOE:VXN OANDA:NAS100USD TVC:NDX NASDAQ:NDX NASDAQ:NDAQ CURRENCYCOM:US100 CAPITALCOM:US100 TVC:DJI
Idea for SPX: You know the story of the Fall. It's the top. The Great Tribulation Sept.17, 2021. - $AAPL historically marked tops in US markets: - Ending Diagonal: - Oil, broader market, yields, commodities, risk currencies rolling over or collapsing: - Volatility, haven currencies, gold and bonds correlating and turning up: - USA is in a 1-to-1 analog...
Idea for Oil/Macro: - The bottom line is that the inflation narrative is driven by one commodity - Oil. - Price is at a 40 year resistance. - The only thing actually holding up the price of oil is OPEC+ agreeing to cut production (Artificial inflation). - QE is actually deflationary, all it does is put a floor on markets and suppresses volatility and creates...
Cash moving up ahead of Expiration next Tuesday/Wednesday into Settlement. Approaching window for larger retracement 21-22 July. Interesting times in VX Complex. Tomorrow is OPEX, it is important to note that weekly patters for ES YM NQ have been fairly consistent throughout Summer Trading. 2 patters have been trading BID Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday,...
Am just looking at my panel of leading indicators, and besides the S&P500 ES1! daily chart looking a bit stalled with MACD turning down, the Russell2000, DJ Transports and Value Geometric Index are already leading down. Key levels to breakdown are in red circles. Some others like the High Yield Bonds and TIPS are still holding; while the Treasury Bonds are being...
July Protection for Volatility was taken up to Sell M1 as we begin to see M2 (August) uptake 100% of the VXX M1+M2. Settlement will have, at minimum 98% front loaded into August M1. There will be the ever present Gap to close as there is every month. As the CASH VIX and July Contract converge for settlement, the Indices should range. We are looking for 12.30s...
Idea for Macro: - Free money is cut off at the source. China Credit Impulse turned negative > Evergrande is first to fall > Overseas investments downsized > widespread effects. - China was the only productive economy in 2020 > driver of global economy (60% importer of oil). - CN30Y is closely correlated to CCI > leads US30Y > leads US risk assets. - Chinese...
We're either seeing a breakout here on the S&P500 Futures/M2 chart, or this resistance level, which has held up since 2001, is about to spoil the bulls party. Look at the last impulse wave toward the resistance line in yellow. We're stretched, but we're seeing the same pattern, folks. Trade accordingly...
After this morning's insane inflation print (YoY CPI of 5.4%), the Dollar (DXY) is being heavily bid (again). We just saw a rejection at the wedge this morning for the 4th time in a month. It's been a bumpy ride, but if the wedge is recaptured on broader market weakness, our 2H target remains 95+...
US Futures are trading marginally lower on Tuesday morning with the Dow down -0.16% to 34,821, the S&P down -0.21% to 4,369, the Russell down -0.37% to 2,268 and the Nasdaq down -0.4% to 14,865 as of 8:50AM. We saw June CPI come in extremely hot moments ago at 0.9% vs the 0.5% expected, while Core CPI also came in at 0.9% vs the 0.5% expected. We're talking YoY...
Markets slightly down overnight with Vix Up over 4%. We can see on our short term VIX Structure that a gap fill attempt can be on the way. This may turn the Indices back up for the day, ahead of a lot of economic data week as well. Markets will have some moves this week I bet. Trade safe out there!
Volatility direction for a specific index can help your intraday analysis for an overall direction even if it minor within a range so you can take fast swings on the right side of the traffic.