The Dollar (DXY) is coming off extreme overbought levels on the daily timeframe. We're seeing a rejection at the wedge resistance on Monday, and we're likely to extend losses before a potential retest as early as this week. Let's see how the White House PPT meeting goes, and how the narratives in the MSM evolve following the meeting. We could be about to see a...
After a rocket-like rally on Monday morning, we're now drifting at the top of the afternoon session, and trading just below the green ascending trendline, but SPY hourly RSI is showing weakness in the rally. No sign of the bears as yet, but I suspect they will want to recapture that 50DMA before the close to keep the downtrend intact. Let's see what happens next...
Hello, guys hope all is well. Today we will be looking at $SPY and how I will play the market this week. Based on the expected move for this week of $6.79 we are possibly looking at a range between $410.01 - $423.59. On Monday I opened the Put side ($400 / $398 and collected $9 per contact) of my Iron Condor and leg into my Call side roughly Thursday afternoon or...
US Futures are rebounding modestly on Monday morning after last weeks sell off - the S&P is rallying around 0.50% to test the 50DMA around 4,176.58 (likely as resistance), the Dow is seeing support at the 100DMA at 33,011 and is up around 0.71% on the day, the Russell is retesting the 50DMA around 2,250, and the Nasdaq is floating somewhere in orbit around 14,072...
VIX at the weekly. The yellow circle was the end of that wedge. Looks like I still got it. Thought, this volatility shouldn't be a surprise at all. February-March, June, and September are seasonally the most volatile months of the year. Twitter and other forums are chanting the world is ending. This is just seasonal volatility. Think about it from a financial...
Idea for Volatility: - Wyckoff Cycle Mapped. - Wave Frequencies synced. - Cause and Effect determined. - Greater Cycle: - Bonds Volatility looks ready: - China Credit Impulse turns negative, consequently the global credit impulse turns negative. - Liquidity Flow: Credit > Bonds/Currencies > Commodities > Stocks. Fighting the Fed: - Reading the Curve: -...
That is all. GLHF - DPT
The Down has gapped below the previous low completing the Dow sell signal I posted about compared to the Dow Transport. Rsi and Stoch Rsi are nearing buy signals though plus the Dow broke down from the falling wedge. I am hedged short but I am not calling a full on crash/top given the Fed's track record. If the Fed didn't always save the market I would go short...
When analyzing financial markets I always look at the big picture, that's what you do if you want to be consistent on making profits by trading. The equity markets are undoubtly too high and it due for a big correction at least. On the left you can see VIX has been forming a falling wedge just like what it did ahead the COVID crash back in March 2020. Notice...
Based on the US equity options Put/Call, most traders are on the wrong side of the boat heading into tomorrow's (quad-witch) opex. Hold on to your hats, folks!
According to Spot Gamma, below 4,200 on the S&P is risk off. Let's see if the bulls can recover and get us back above this critical level, or if the bears hammer us lower and take advantage of the BTFD volume. We're sitting just above trendline support (in green), and MA supports just below (21EMA and 50DMA). If we see any real risk off moves today or tomorrow on...
US Futures are hovering near yesterday's lows after a shaky start to the overnight session saw us reverse the Powell driven buying spree that started around 2:45PM when he said to take the dot plot with a "pinch of salt." Powell is now essentially saying that the Fed doesn't know what it's doing, so don't really listen to what the members think. I mean, this guy...
VXX has been very consistent in its following trend lines and over the last week it has dipped below its major support line. The news from the Fed today has clearly started some level of pull back in the markets (DJI has been showing that for a week). Now will this just be a side ways move or something more substantial? The markets has defied all odds so far so it...
Idea for Macro: - Credit Cycle turned down from top of Risk Range. - Global Credit Impulse negative, US Systemic Liquidity Flows turning down, Fed Balance Sheet 5yr avg. at top of risk range. - Demand-push Inflation at top of risk range, in 40 year downtrend. - Implied Volatility vs. Realized Volatility reaching a critical level. - PC ratio reaching low levels...
When the 10 Day Regression line crosses the 30 day regression line, especially when the 10-day regression line then crosses the 0.2, 14-Day Bollinger Band, it's been money on call options within the next 30 day for the past six months. Today's signal suggests that VIX will spike again prior to July 16. It's well worth it for me to possibly triple or quadruple my...
If I to some extend accept that it's somewhat like a Martingale strategy, what am I not seeing. Clearly something can't be true? I'm aware that the VIX future requires big margin and account size...
The Vix recently caught a bounce off one of the lowest weekly RSI prints since 2013. We've seen support each time the Vix hit a weekly RSI of 41, and so Vix may finally be on the verge of a notable spike soon, which leads me to believe that the Fed may surprise markets today by being more hawkish than expected, or opex (quad-witch) on Friday may be a disaster for...
ABNB lost some steam yesterday after testing a 153 handle. We saw some light inflows today at the open, which have now been erased, but we look poised to test the 50DMA sitting around 156.36. We also have room to run toward the upper band of the triangle around 160 if the 50DMA is captured, where we should see strong resistance and possibly a continuation of the...