VIX is forward-looking data that tracks the premium of S&P 500 index options which expires in the European way. It does not necessarily move the opposite direction of the S&P, but it historically mirrored the movement of the S&P. Looking at SPY, in the 1-hr chart, it's trending down, lower highs and lower lows. 50-SMA acted as resistance at the last lower...
Now let’s dive into the intermarket relationships and see if we can find a trend: Here we have an even split. So we will still have to wait and see what will take place. We are starting to see a few breakouts in price, but we need to see more to go bullish. If we start to see failures, we will see a continuation of the bearish trend. Bullish = 6 Neutral =...
The Volatility (VIX) is gently coming to the bottom of its swooping arc, just as the momentum on this bounce of the SPX is slowly burning out at the top of an arc. So, the question on my mind, as we approach the top of the pink and intersect the top of turquoise rising wedge (both reversal patterns) is: As the pink wedge fails to support the bulls and begins to...
Looks like the VXX may have found a new bottom. Note the nice asymptotic curve in the RSI and the flatting of the VXX values with small shadows on the candle that are testing support.
This is a tricky one but at a critical spot. The VIX classically needs to be below 26 to sustain a bull market. It's that simple. Now, this doesn't mean that the advance/decline ratio will negate any complacency with over 200b in options contracts traded each day. The guess for me is down from here. This would allow rates to normalize, which until the spx when...
Today may have been just the turning point we were lookin for to precede a volatilty spike taking off later this week. Right now the model is only marginally more bullish than Neutral but is the last place we were looking for near term confirms as the bigger picture is still quite bullish for volatility. At the 2H this turn has only just begun so it is only weak...
Ok guys, same playbook as last spike. I laid down our uptrend and downtrend yellow lines. Today we broke under the uptrend after ending yesterday right in the middle. Price should gravitate back up and retest the downtrend to ultimately break above. Breaking above the yellow downtrend and especially above the yellow uptrend is a strong entry signal. I scaled in...
I gave up on a gold color TP and switched to purple. The first 2 TPs were when this spike first started and will now act as decent S/R for the drop back down. The next 2 TPs were our revised targets in case we blew past the first ones (good thing we were prepared!). We hit TP 3 and 4 Sep 3rd and then TP 4 again Sep 4th, which really would mean scalping this top...
I WOULD GO SHORT UNDER 30 OR GO LONG OVER 35.38 TRADE IDEA: 25P 9/18 BID/ASK: 1.70/1.75
Fib retracement levels from the bottom of the covid crash to the top doesn't match 3295. Fib retracement from the last correction to the top doesn't match. I don't see any prominent support channel vectors at 3295. The big red line doesn't seem to land on any interesting historical levels. RSI is maxed out, and the MACD just crossed bearish while already under......
So the VIX is showing some signs of possible bullish continuation right now, but the trend is down. If we see the VIX maintain support at the 0 bound and trend upwards, this would be an environment that crypto goes down. If this ends up being a non trending event, than we are back to the bullish case. The important thing to note here is to have some cash. So keep...
VIX at the daily view. In my recent post, I said that the VIX is like my crazy ex-girlfriend. It acts calm for a while but secretly plotting ES' demise. By the time the ES realized what was going on, it's too late. When the VIX was making the its third higher low, that was my warning sign to go all cash. The VVIX confirmed that these higher lows were legit....
Next week could be interesting given the suppression wedge. Expect the sell off to continue...
How efficient is the Expected Move? Next week has a Fed announcement and Major economic news. Volatility fell along with the market in a bizarre week of trade. Volume dropping on stocks selling off. Softbank continues to conduct itself in a recalcitrant manner, as does the insidious CCP. Best of luck next week, - RH
I expect increased volatility on SnP500. We are finishing up on the descending wedge. An increase in VIX, signals greater volatility on markets. In the case of SNP500 this may mean a downward move as part of Wave 4 or parabolic growth as part of Wave 5.
Ok guys, found the upchannel line from last bottom, it appears Price is sticking to this line for now. It may break under but $21 should catch and hold it. It won't go above the magenta core support line either and when it does, it means we're likely spiking up already and have a lot of upside left. So Price just wedging between both yellow and purple and magenta...
I made this VVIX/VIX chart a few days ago and drew a few resistance channels, which have been tested a few times in the past weeks. Today's volatility spike marks a major breakout. Quite the bear signal. 180 billion in AAPL value wiped out today, many more billions gone throughout tech. Is the bubble pop complete? Let's see what Friday holds. September starting...