Sorry for the crude drawing. I was playing around with the VIX to give myself a different perspective, trying to see where the market might be headed. Saw this cup and handle and wanted to share. If we are in fact forming a handle, we could be on the verge of a quick, large spike in the VIX which would likely mean the same drop in the indices. Just a heads up. I...
Took a few days off my TVIX analysis. Only so much you can do on an inverse market. My SPX short ideas are basically all TVIX long ideas too. I'm about even on my TVIX now so sittin great on this play with my -50% stop loss and massive future upside potential B). I did expect I'd be exiting by end of June but I'm content to hold through early July now as well...
I did this for the SPX and wanted to loop back around to TVIX. Just popped in and really crazy the indicator pattern repetition we're seeing. Maybe it's just coincidence but it's something to consider. Based on this model spike would come sometime between early July and mid August and based on everything else I know I think it's likely we get two spikes, a...
So i've been long VIX since from 29.3.... and I am only really using it as a hedging instrument, yet a profitable one. The economic factors which are at play due to Covid-19, but by just as much of the impact the economies of the world have suffered indicate to me that the VIX is an excellent hedging instrument in these uncertain times. As of recent, "bad data"...
Volatility not done. Large vix spike coming. As most markets are fairly correlated right now this could show further trouble in most if not all markets in the short term
The following diagram illustrates the breakup of a globalisation advance: Since the retrace in VIX has found a hard floor into the 25 lows, we may characterise the advance as an endgame for our economic cycle purposes. Now the erroneous nature of Volatility advancing can be seen. The effect of demobilising the consumer will weigh heavy on Equities, not...
It's worth remembering that all the economic data coming out (retail sales, payrolls, etc.) showing month-on-month rate of change looks pretty different on a year-on-year basis.
With the PPT, Federal Reserve, money printing, etc; a centrally planned market (in the repo market the way that Bernanke did). This "new normal" is easy to achieve now, with the ability to suppress volatility. This can be compared to their ability to put pressure and the narrative between how futures have rocketed each night.
The VIX, VX Futures, and their derivatives are interesting because they all: a) theoretically lag the S&P but sometimes don't, which is troublesome b) serve as excellent S&P trend confirmation c) are key and highly misunderstood mechanisms within the broader market fabric d) are based on revised logic that assigns a number to "volatility" based on the...
I don't trade VIX options very often, and I don't give much credence to VIX technical analysis. However, when it paints a picture that seems to be confirming bigger troubles with the SPX, it's worth giving it a look. I expect more of a rounding formation/slight upward bias here moreso than a giant upward spike which is typical of VIX moves. The reason here is...
XLU Position Update: 13:57:15 (UTC) Tue Jun 16, 2020
US10Y Position Updatet: 13:31:26 (UTC) Tue Jun 16, 2020
SPX Daily Short Range 13:22:50 (UTC) Tue Jun 16, 2020
Vix Daily Long Range 13:11:19 (UTC) Tue Jun 16, 2020
Here, I want to show traders the power of this pattern ; the descending wedge pattern. Now, please note that this is a pattern , just a pattern and barring any unforseen circumstances, it is likely to break out of the bearish wedge and goes higher (a bullish move). Now, you witness a 15 min IPO shares -Netease newly listed in HK. Here's a few more examples...
Volatility finally came back to the stock market last week. And, it looks like it’s going to stick around for a bit. It took two buy signals before stocks rallied in February. And, it took four VIX buy signals before the market finally bottomed in March and the recent “greatest rally of all time” got started. Traders should probably wait for at least a second VIX...