Melting up. Next week shaping up to be a fairly boring neutral holiday week. Goodluck Next Week - RH Recent Charts Worth Watching: Unemployment Rate: Bitcoin: EM relative strength: Value > Growth: SKEW: Bonds: REPO: VIX + VVIX: VIX vs. VIX3M: Industrial Production: www.tradingview.com Homebuilders: Regional Banks: China: ...
GBP Volatility is dropping off back down to the floor that is firmly set at 6.00 This has been a strong support for pound volatility for years now so buying GBP Vix at this level should provide relatively good gains from a bounce up to 16.00. It could go higher if there is new trade tensions with Europe and the Brexit saga continues
Calls Options April, May or June Expiration 20-30 strike price Roll or Martingale for position mgmt
... for a .65/contract credit. Notes: With the February /VX futures contract trading at 16.52, looking to re-up with a term structure trade in the February cycle after taking off my January with a break even around where the futures contract is trading.
The VIX is once again back at the deamnd level we saw a bounce out of back in mid November. I'd expect it to rise several points within the next few days, meaning the Equity Index markets are likely to pull back if VIX Demand holds.
... for a .76/contract credit. Notes: A starter "infinite roll" position in VIX in one of the smaller accounts. (See Post Below). Collecting > 1/3rd the width in credit. Will manage toward expiry, either rolling "as is" for a credit or, if necessary, widen the spread for a credit. Generally long-term bet that VIX is below 16 a majority of the time. Using...
EARNINGS: FDX (57/37): Tuesday, After Market Close. MU (23/46): Wednesday, After Market Close. NKE (24/25): Thursday, After Market Close. Pictured here is an MU January 17th 46/57.5 short strangle paying 1.53 (.76 at 50% max) with 1 standard deviation break evens and a delta/theta metrics of .32/5.34. Alternatively: a defined risk play collecting one-third the...
VIX long till 70. Huge divergences in market. Extreme weakness in REIT's "should" drag down the rest of the benchmarks. GASX/VIX to revert to target of 1. Let's see!
Weekly view on VIXY/TVIX confirms the trend should be flipping to Bullish by next week. Weekly RSI trend has just broken to the upside. Recently broke out of the shoe/banana pattern. VIXY has followed this pattern for years, so I feel this is strong. Everything is lining up to next week sometime we should see SPY go down and VIXY/TVIX go up. EXITS -At pink...
VIXY/TVIX showing a Buy Signal on the Daily yesterday. Yellow bull flag formation (kind of sloppy but its there). Price currently broke out bullishly. 10WeekMA is reaching out farther by the day to reach price. Rate is currently $1 per day closer to price (which is fast). If we cross 10WeekMA, price should continue higher. Based on current rate, 10WeekMA should...
EARNINGS: It's a fairly light week for earnings, but there is some highly liquid underlyings to play for volatility contraction: CHWY (--/74): Monday, After Market Close. LULU (64/42): Wednesday After Market Close. COST (44/23): Thursday, After Market Close. ORCL (42/26): Thursday, After Market Close. Pictured here is a CHWY January 17th 21 short put at the 20...
Current price is at $14 from being at lowest price ever is $13 Highest price 12k any spike upward on this price will be in the $100's even $1,000's
VIXY is forming a Bull Flag as SPX (or SPY) forms a Bear Flag. Price is reaching out to 10WeekMA just like SPX. The inverse relationship continues between these two, which confirms to me that the "hidden trend" is still in play. We are basically consolidating on the way down. Much like oxygen masks come out when a plane goes down to keep people calm, they are...
VIXY just turned bullish on trend for Weekly view yesterday. We have close gaps to fill above to $20. RSI has bullish divergence on Weekly view. Normally goes to 70 before calming down again. Looking at VIXY, SPY, and AAPL together I think the bigger picture is we are headed lower. Market is overbought. All these charts are correlating together in direct or...
Every touch of the trend line has been followed by a smaller spike then a much larger one. Most recent touch was a false breakdown and quick rebound just above the trendline... Crude oil typically rises and falls with equities. USOil just fell from $58 per barrel to $55 per barrel on Friday (5%). Expecting equities to be very close to a top and should move down a...