Morning Notes 08/14/19-Gary Trading Environment-Short Term: Current Environment-Bearish Hi Everyone, Sentiment Update from Woody: "Sentiment cam in today at 90% bullish after the big news yesterday but as we see nothing has really changed. There are still profiles for lower but the most important message may be just pure volatility both ways." Yesterday is...
Financial markets faced a sharp surge in concern. The Fear Index (VIX) soared (+30%). The Argentine Peso lost the same amount of its value yesterday. It is all about the populists in Argentina. Well, it is quite interesting how many times you need to fail again and again to understand one thing - that is a bad idea. Tsipras and Greece again on the brink of...
A close over the 50 then its a test to 300. Support over 300 and off to the races. Plan to see this next month and bank last 3 months of the year.
Trading Environment-Short Term: Current Environment-Bearish Hi Everyone, Futures are some more selling pressure this morning, BUT from a technical view, it looks more like a consolidation pattern on the /es instead of a breakdown. The pattern is a text book bull flag which is suggesting we still may see higher before lower. If that pattern fails, it would make...
EARNINGS: M (87/58) announces earnings this week and has the most appropriate rank/implied volatility metrics for a contraction play. Pictured here is a narrow short strangle in the September monthly that is almost a short straddle, set up this way primarily because M is trading at 19.43, which Is smack dab in the middle of the short strikes. It's paying 2.25...
Showing strong support at 288 for the week. Nice candle long wick.. heading UP UP UP
UVXY poped very significantly in the last week. The futures market bounced back over night. Time for a quick short for the next 1 to 2 weeks.
Took another pot shot today after the gap fill today that the index reverses and makes some retracement lower from here soon. Bought a bearish put spread on SPY : 20 SEP 19 285/284 PUT @.25 The risk:reward ratio is only 17%, long at the 26 delta, paying less than 1/3 the width. The market is pricing in a probability of collecting the full payout at 14% and ...
Regardless of the Fed's rate decision and the unforeseeable progress of the current trade negotiations between the US and China, we assume that from a technical point of view, the current selloff was foreseeable due to the previously low VIX level and the current uptrend we've seen in the SPX. What's your point of view?
MMHVW - stock market rallied 2% yesterday and then dumped. What a rip off.
VIX has stopped cold at resistance today just where it stopped in may. With hourly bearish divergence in play, a possible short term counter trend drop might occur...
The portfolio risks are getting higher than before.
I feel as if the drop may have ended today (Friday). We shall see. By the way, the price action for the SP 500 perfectly touched that ascending neck line of this possible head and shoulders, before dropping. Things that make you go hmmmm. Lastly, I was just not that impressed with the Vix and Tvix move. Kind of weak...is that telling us something?
Morning Notes 08/02/19-Gary Trading Environment-Short Term: Current Environment-Bearish Hi Everyone, To say we have an officiant market is just crazy talk. Computers are trading against computers and retail traders get whip sawed and caught in (Spx) 40 point moves up/down in minutes, NOT HOURS! Algos are programmed to look for key words which will trigger a...
if market crashes, would Trump blame the Fed and the Fed blame Trump and will the Fed be taken out .............. VIXruption coming
... for a .60/contract credit. Notes: A VIX term structure trade with a break even at or above where the corresponding /VX future is trading. Designed to emulate what a correspondent front month futures contract in /VX does as it converges on spot, the short call vertical has a 16.60 break even versus the October /VX contract at 16.55. Will look to take...
Powell rocked the markets yesterday: “Let me be clear: What I said was it’s not the beginning of a long series of rate cuts. I didn’t say it’s just one or anything like that. When you think about rate-cutting cycles, they go on for a long time and the committee’s not seeing that. Not seeing us in that place. You would do that if you saw real economic weakness and...