Having only recently traded through the most volatile (vol) environments in interest rates and bond markets since the GFC, we are now seeing far more subdued conditions in vol. Many have expressed disbelief at how the VIX index (S&P500 30-day implied volatility) is below 17% when the US is eyeing a possible recession this year, the credit crunch is yet to really...
🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equities ended slightly higher at the lower end of today's trading range. It was another one of those days that meant little by itself yet a story is unfolding within the context of a string of these days. ➤ When prices leapt higher from the March low, we saw the aggressive acceleration with large-sized daily moves and price gaps...
Since 2000 we've lost this support 3 times, in all of these cases after closing below a spike up followed (on monthly). Let's see what happens this time, looking for a close above the red line in order to have confirmed signal.
🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equities finished in a robust manner at the highs although it was a low volatility day. It looks like the price is digesting the break out of the short-term consolidation prior to jumping higher. The question is how much higher? ➤ I studied the Wyckoff Method some years ago under the teachings of well-known proponents Roman...
Imagine USD recovery, and "no fear" on VIX at the same time Not good combination for stocks IMO, especially when looking the extremes of 2022-2023 range. Calls at the extreme may not be a good thing.
🚨🚨 ONE LINER 🚨🚨 Attention, traders! The Volatility Index ( TVC:VIX ) is approaching an 18-month low, which could indicate a strong bullish signal for the market. Background : Two months ago, in December 2022, I discussed the significance of the VIX dipping below the 20 level as a key milestone for a bullish market. Today, I want to dive deeper into this topic...
🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ On Friday the S&P500 held above short-term support on top of the trading range although it did give up earlier gains. That is not unsurprising as I did expect the support to be tested. The major feature was the collapse of the VIX to relatively low levels. My "A Regime Shift" post (linked) delves into what this may mean. ➤ A quick...
The week hasn't ended yet, but it seems quite clear that we broke a 5 year old trend line to the down side. This may very well implicate that we will NOT get a major crash (this year) and the SPY will rise further. The other scenario is that this is a MAJOR TRAP. But then the VIX will have to reverse within the next 1 to 2 weeks.
As you know, I'm a big fan of the VIX (aka Equity Fear index). It shows the 30-day expected volatility of the US equity market dervied from participants in the options market. The idea is that sophisticated investors tend to use options for hedging out risks. Below I show a long-term chart of the VIX in relation to the S&P500. Sorry for making you squint but you...
I forsee rates continuing to increase. Banking to continue having a hard time, the value of the dollar to get stronger, and the price of equities to decrease due to less attractive opportunity costs vs bonds. I think a lot of people are not expecting this, and instead were expecting the fed to pause and for a bull market to begin. I think that equities will be re...
The Volatility S&P 500 Index rose slightly today, following a short period with a relatively low value. As is displayed on the chart, within the past year, these moments often coincided with tops in SPX and preceded times of increased volatility with significant selling pressure. Therefore, we will monitor this metric closely in the following days. *The orange...
🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Yesterday I said narrow price ranges don't last long. It lasted a day more than I had hoped for but today we saw the break through. S&P500 broke above the short-term trading range. Not only that, it also broke an assortment of resistance levels. ➤ Before we get carried away, we should note that there is usually a test of the support...
As an FYI we're still cautious bull. We did initiate a CBOE:VIX position, by selling puts, as small hedge. We've made clear what the targets on indices were, still think they can be hit. TVC:DJI - 34250 - Major Resistance NASDAQ:NDX - 13400 - Fib level SP:SPX - Major resistance - 4181 But keep in mind; IMF warning global debt levels = DANGEROUS #Fed...
🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equities failed to take advantage of the early bullish mood. Prices ended weakly for a solid down day. ➤ Yesterday I talked about the current state of the market and it being in a short-term consolidation phase. This is a situation where prices move up and down within a range treading water prior to breaking out higher or lower....
April has been positive, in fact the BEST MONTH, 16 of last 20 years & has an avg 2.5%! The orange line coincidentally is around 2.5%! We've sold TVC:VIX puts further out into May :) Have a ton of $ reserved for that trade. Easier 2c neg divergence on 4Hr vs positive on TVC:VIX #stocks
Uncharted waters as the caption suggests since we've closed monthly above the long term channel. What does it mean? A shift in monetary policy, hence the attractiveness in bonds or a potential peak during uncertain times. No hard convictions, but the odds are not looking great for high risk plays.
S&P continues in the overall downtrend. We will continue to see bear market rallies and pull backs before continuing lower. As you can see, it's been lower lows and lower highs. If you listen to mainstream channels like CNBC or Bloomberg, it's always a bottom when stocks move upward but selling continues. I noticed when the mainstream says something the opposite...
Who could have guessed markets would rally in an ocean of bad news: Worse than expected CPI Worse than expected PCE Worse than expected Chicago PMI Joblessness Rising Missed Earnings Q2 GDP Contraction in Recession Collapsing Home and Auto Sales Who knew you could miss earnings, lose millions in revenue and your stock price rallies like...