Starting to look like we have a very playable wedge forming on the daily. The falling trend lines up with the 61.8% retracement on options expiration day (4/20). We may also consolidate in this narrowing range, potentially setting the stage for a major rally or major selloff in the summer. Sell in May?
Note the ratio of SPX:VIX spikes prior to market corrections because VIX typically spikes just prior to downward trend in SPX (weekly ratio w/ log scale). Also note the SPX:VIX ratio has historically (nearly) always outpaced SPX. However, we are currently in a very unusual situation in which the ratio is significantly below SPX... VIX is at a historic high...
For an equity that has declined 90% a year since inception this years trend is very unusual. Look for a bounce off the trend-line and maybe a run to the higher fib extension levels.
Personally I hate trading the news, but when it comes to these periodic Trump-induced geopolitical rattles, these types of in-and-out trades can work as a brief portfolio hedge (IF timed correctly and at the right levels). How certain am I of this working out in my favor?? 40/60.... as in 40% maybe 60% uncertain BUT this is what I SEE versus what I EXPECT,...
After much talk of trade bans, trade wars, and other wall street killers, the markets appear to be steadying out again. TVIX, the 2x Leverage for the volatility index has also gone back on track from it's original decline. As displayed, the resistance line has rejected the upthrust on multiple occasions which has proven to be beneficial. Although the price has...
Hope this idea will inspire some of you ! If you want to see my chart more closely, click the share button below that video.. You will be able to have access to the chart used in that video. Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;) Indicators used in this forecast are PRO Sinewave BETA & PRO Momentum . You can...
We are currently in an escalating trade war with our top trading partner and the market is overvalued so I am convinced markets will plunge much lower than 2550 this week. I notice a head & shoulders pattern forming in futures, it looks like this is the right shoulder. It is a great time to short the market right now, I am already fully invested in short positions.
When a stock can be resilient during broader weakness, I'm interested. The technical picture is looking interesting, too. Several indicators and oscillators are signaling to buy (denoted with round, green arrows). It's held above the 200 day moving average, which also bodes well. I suspect we'll get weakness tomorrow, as futures fell sharply earlier. I've...
UVXY - which essentially is a short-term VIX futures ETF, looks like wants to cross the 200 day and close above soon. Notes on chart. I'm long this via UVXY 21 calls. Had a run up to 21 today and pulled back. Hopefully next week! Another way to hedge against a falling market.
The VIX is called the 'Fear Index'. That's for a good reason. In times of high volatility what do you do? People in general stay out i.e. they sell off and keep their powder dry, or look for safe havens. They fear for their money, even if they don't admit it. As a trader you're told 'volatility is good for traders'. But really - is it? It depends on how extreme...
Reiterating a bearish view on HSI. Looking at candles and wanted to point out a few bearish instances I have noticed. With markets more globalized and intertwined than ever, I see no way SPX DJI NDX IXIC hold up if Asia tanks... which is why I'm short SPY DE TSLA IWM and long UVXY (all with options, of course).
It appears that volatility is preparing to breakout or breakdown soon. There is good reason for it due to the fear in the marketplace. Have investor fears reached their peak? Or are we just getting started? I think we will have the answer soon. On the price chart, it appears we have an ascending triangle. On the MACD, we have a symmetric triangle. The apex...
few rejections here, crucial level to break out of for a bull run, if not then its weakness n volatility should dampen
Comparing the S&P 500 with the VIX over a macro period, on a % increase scale.
Even though earnings season is winding down to a few names (BB, GME) next week, there's stuff to play in sectors or broad market, with the May expiry (54 days until expiry) coming into view for plays. The XOP May 18th 31/39 short strangle (19 delta) is paying .98 at the mid with the slightly more aggressive 25 delta 32/38 paying 1.38. If you're looking to go...
This is a call diagonal that (at least currently), you would put on for a small net credit so that in the event price rips drastically away from the setup, you aren't out much. This particular VIX setup doesn't usually work well because we're in contango the vast majority of the time, and this generally makes the back month long cost too much relative to what...
I'll be looking closely at $SPY, $VIX and $SKEW to get long $SPY at the bottom once more. For now sitting in cash and with a big $TLT long position, as well as my $USDCAD short trade. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
We've held on the high VA action area. And more buyers have come in. A break out of the current triangle and the move up to 27,000 will come.