We can easily see a spike up to ~ $64 on the VIX if these narratives continue to worsen in Ukraine. Correlations are approaching 1? VIX will soar.
🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ The mid-March march in equities has neutralised the short-term down-trend. A higher high as been set. To move from neutral to an uptrend we need to see a subsequent higher low. That potential higher low could come swiftly. ➤ S&P500 is at key levels with 410 and 417 acting as resistance on the SPY. A correction in the price should...
False security is dangerous. Wall Street's fear gauge is muted. Is the VIX cruising for a bruising? As mentioned in our previous papers, current times are unprecedented, from geo-politics tensions, restrictive monetary policies, fractured corporate earnings, to sticky inflation. the VIX should be anything but sanguine. Any mild escalation could send equities...
Tightening Bollinger bands and bullish divergence in stochastics (weekly interval). This bear market has not seen a true ^VIX launch yet...
🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Once again equities gapped higher. Depsite some "gap filling" action, price recovered to finish some distance from the lows. All is not equal of course, Nasdaq still leads the way and Russell2000 small cap woefully lagging. Long big tech and and short the weaker small caps would have been a wonderful trade. ➤ So is there MOAR upside...
Mean reversion of volatility is almost a guaranteed phenomenon in markets. In this video I've shown that volatility has been coiling up past month and is ready for a breakout within 1-2 weeks. As always, charts predict the news so if and when this break happens it'll be a pretty big deal in the news. The way I'm playing this is by buying VIX calls.
Excuse my absolutely HORRIBLE art skills😄 $VIX USUALLY stays close to a "bottom" for few days Kind of an exception = yellow We're closing in to lower end of the symmetrical triangle #VIX tends to bounce there $SPX has had issues in this area, it does look better than before Weekly volume on $SPX, see that? #stocks
Throughout 2022 you would have done VERY well taking profit when the TVC:VIX hit 20 and accumulating when the VIX hit 30. But has this trend concluded? This movement and profit/accumulation opportunity is consistent with the most recent tightening from 2017 to 2018 where fed funds were rising, and the yield for 2 year treasuries in the bond market exceeded fed...
Unemployment is tricky. You just cannot announce high unemployment. The political damage is too much to take. But unfortunately, the time comes when unemployment just increases... Every sane person would want the economy to remain calm for as long as possible. This is not sinister or bad. After all, it is in the duty of Governments and Central Banks to keep our...
🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equities shot up higher with you guessed it...Nasdaq leading the way. If investors did not have a large tech allocation, they have been left way way behind at least so far this year. ➤ S&P500 is up 5% YTD but is now back trafficking at the 400 level. This has been the recent "zero" line from where prices oscillate up and down 5% on...
Strong support zone, so if you are long risk you have to be careful now
It has been a while since Indices begin with a Heads UP High. The amount of volatility that has been withdrawn from markets due to exchange of securities at average rates will soon get soared when there will be market capitalization of stocks crunch. The volatility will increase as free float market cap will be left really low and whatever stocks trading will...
VIX. Swing Trade. Careful not to get too big early and get volitlity crushed as the market picks a direction over the next days and coming weeks. MAC D Crossing. High Volume at Bottoms. VIXJ2023. $VIX $UVXY $ SVIX
🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Another low volatility day. Equity prices recovered to finish where it started the day. For me it meant flipping my short position to being long/buy. ➤ "The Flipper" in Cricket is a bowling action made famous by the legend leg spinner Shane Warne...may he rest in peace. It's a normal looking spinning delivery but actually just skids...
🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ A low volatility start to the week. NASDAQ underperformed while Russell 2000 small cap caught a bid. Price could not push through the short-term resistance level above 400 on the SPY. VIX keeps moving lower. ➤ I'm finally back in the action with a moderate short position. It's going to be a short stay, 1 or 2 days perhaps. It was...
Monday 3/27/2023 - In this Video I discuss The technical analysis of the SPY ETF which is a proxy the S&P500 that is often a tell on general market movements. I also discuss broader market Macros I have been watching including last week's and next weeks economic events. We also discuss some recession indicators, and other charts that show headwinds and tailwinds...
Been away for a week, needed time off. Visited family. Did some light trading, mostly closing closing puts sold as most of them expired worthless = We kept PREMIUM! 🙂 - Let's see how markets fared. - As we expected, $NDX has done decently & has kept retesting the upper boundary hit in February. It's breaking above today. BULLISH if accompanied with volume. As...
SPY faced a major rejection at around $401.50, suggesting it will struggle to break through again. If bulls do push past, I see significant resistance at $404-$407.50. However, it's unlikely we'll reach there soon. I expect the rally to lose momentum and break through to $380s. I recognize potential upside but expect more downside to come. Side Note- I'll be...