With the trading year winding down here, I'm not keen to pile into a great number of trades, but there are a few underlyings that may be worth playing here if holiday frivolity just doesn't provide you with enough and/or you're just a hard core trading addict that has to put something on in order to satisfy your need for market engagement ... . BBBY announces...
Metrics: Probability of Profit: 85% Max Profit: $65/contract at the mid* Max Loss: $235/contract Break Even: 15.65 * -- I usually like to get these filled for 2.25 or less. Notes: A slight variation on a term structure trade, which ordinarily uses the corresponding /VX futures price for guidance as to where to set up your spread. Here, instead of using the...
With the price breaking through that blue upper trend line on Thursday, I am considering that a crack in the armor. We still have a week and a half to go before the rate hike on the 13th and so it appears that we can reach the 2700 range. Especially with all that dip buying that happened today. Yep...the Central banks really want a rate hike so they are not...
SO I do not see this as the start of that correction that we have been talking about. Now that we have gotten into November AND now that it appears that the rate hike in December is at 100%,....and the Fed absolutely wants a rate hike....I am thinking that this monster will not be allowed to make its correction until the rate hike. The Fed wants the hike and...
A simple reading of VIX values over time...
Long Vix @ 11.40; TP @ 13.00, SL your choice
I like to look at potential patterns in market cycles. The VIX has touched 9.40 three times since 1990. December of 1993 December of 2006 June 2017 to present What is interesting about these dates? They all precede the build up of a financial crisis of some kind. Take December 1993, the VIX briefly touched a low of 9.31, 3 years and 7 months later the...
A simple analysis of the vix / vxv ratio where spx points are near term upside capped...
Trying to anticipate plausible market drops before they happen... Correlations scans 10 day prior.
Trying to anticipate plausible market drops before they happen... Correlations scans 10 day prior.
I think we are almost there. The charts tells my thoughts on this. So it is looking more like the 1st week on November that this tops and then we get that long awaited correction. SO I labeled this as "short" because there is no point in my opinion to post another chart until it happens. IT should be quite dramatic. Everyone is going to call for the end of...
big swings in USDEUR, most developed markets forms bearish divergences, must have protection...
The last 4 times has resulted in a bounce off the low. We are taking some risk off the table and looking at the opposite direction. Disciplined trading trumps reckless abandon over the long term. Put your head down. Stay quiet. Trade what you see. Look up when you need a break.
... for a .77/contract credit. Metrics: Probability of Profit: 89% Max Profit: $77/contract Max Loss: $223/contract Break Even: 16.77 Notes: This is way farther out than I generally like to go with these, but with the /VX term structure the way it is currently and the way it has been for the past several months, this is probably the best I'm going to get until...
If you like this idea leave a like and follow me to get all of my updates :) I would love to talk to you so send me a message or comment! Underlying: VIX Time frame: 1D What Has Happened So Far: For anyone that is interested in seeing the FULL post click here. I have linked it because the post is far too long to put here. What am I Looking to Happen:...
SO I have been hearing a lot about the long awaited (and very past due) market correction that analysts have been anticipating since August. SO lets assume they are correct and that there will be a large market correction in October. What can the charts help predict. Well first of all, a true ICL needs to break the low of the last DCL. Since it appears we have...
... for a .73 credit. Metrics: Probability of Profit: 29% Max Profit: $73/contract Max Loss: $127/contract Break Even: 11.27 Notes: VIX at sub-10 is about the only time I'll do a bullish assumption trade in VIX. Here, I'll look to money/take/run on any pop, although 50% max would be nice ... .
Rarely does TSI indicate strong green-over-red crossovers in CBOE:VIX derivatives. TSI is for equities and not derivatives, however, this signal could be an early sign of some potential life in NASDAQ:TVIX and AMEX:UVXY etc. Link to TSI below.