Playing it on the long side! Shorting stocks seems to be the way to go for the coming weeks.
VVIX measures the volatility of volatility. It's an expected move in volatility, which is an expected move in stocks. Thus, it is another layer of looking at the market Last time VVIX traded above 120 was during Brexit in June 2016. This is extreme fear!
With VIX continuing to rattle around at sub-11 levels (it finished Friday's session at 10.03), the place to sell premium remains in earnings, although even there the pickings are slim, as broad market low volatility bleeds through the entire market. The decently liquid underlyings on tap for earnings next week: DIS, M, and NVDA, with DIS announcing Tuesday after...
The previous ATR% record low for S%P500 was 0.5667 (on 21st jan 1994). Look for the ATR% to start making higher lows by the time a bear market starts. lunatictrader.com
LONG VIX SEPT FUT @12.8 TP 16-20VOLS 1. Fading risk sentiment - back of googl, msft, fb strong earnings not able to push market higher implying risk bid is over. 2. Time value - 7wks for this view to play out. I expect maturity in around 2wks but an extra 5wks of float is only positive.
Put this together simply to visualise S&P realised vol against gold vol, it seems gold tends to realise slightly more, at least in the present regime.
This is an easy chart to see when the VIX at the bottom crosses above the red line it is bearish for stocks.
VIX index at historic lows, risk not being priced in / market haphazardly bullish
S&P 500 (SPY) Vol is in the gutter, and Nasdaq (QQQ) options have a bit more premiums. This suggests that option sellers should be focused on selling QQQ puts if they expect higher market prices in the near-term.
vix is to low right now, nasdaq 5% in a month.
My timing is slightly off but with the recent breakout, it appears that my wave count is on the money. We are in wave 5 of a larger 1 of this bull markets final Wave 5. I hope that did not confuse you. So I do not think this will measure the same as wave 3 which would take it to around 2510 ish. And I am looking for it to be a little bigger than wave 1, which...
Short SPX500 @ 2.446; TP @ ,2396, SL your choice
... for a 1.60 credit. With the /VX July contract currently trading at 12.74, this is basically a bet that VIX will finish between current VIX price and the VIX futures front month price around expiry, although anything between 10.90 and 14.10 will do ... . Metrics: Max Profit: 1.60/contract Max Loss/BPE: .90/contract BE's at 10.90/14.10 Notes: Will look to...
Going to bite on an August setup here ... . Metrics: Max Profit: $190/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $160/contract Break Evens: 10.40/14.40 Theta: .94 Delta: 17.02 Notes: Previously, the recommendation was to shoot for 25% max profit on these. If you do that, however, you'll have to wait until the very last moment, generally, so shooting for 10% max on...
Without a ton of stuff to do here premium selling wise that meets my standards, layering on some more VIX fly in the July expiry (35 DTE). July /VX futures contract is currently trading at 12.45, so that's where I set up the short straddle body of the set up. Metrics: Max Profit: 1.82/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: 1.68/contract Break Evens:...
... for a 1.96 credit Metrics: POP%: 31% Max Profit: 1.96/contract Max Loss: 1.04/contract BE's at 11.04/14.96 Notes: I'll look to manage this at 25% max.