With the French primaries in the rear view mirror and some market unease abated due to the result, VIX futures are caving hard as of the writing of this post (the May contract is down 8% to 13.15). This, unfortunately, changes the potential complexion of next week's market for me, since it is likely that implied volatility will dry up somewhat in SPY/SPX and...
VIX is down 20% DAX is up 2.5% SPX is in green! Risk appetite is back on... but does it have a grip? N. Korea is still out there Trump is still the president We still have Snap Elections in June (UK) What do you think? New All Time High or a shorting opportunity?
Hitting resistance right meow. Shorting here at 2354/2355.. Adding at 2366/2368. Stop at 2371. Looking for 50 point drop minimum by end of next week. Follow the move up from 2280s.
I am very bearish the SPX. Let me list some of my arguments below: a. We have seen a massive and rapid run up in recent weeks (on top of an already long and 'hated' bull market). b. The VIX (at 14 while i am typing this post) is really at a level that shows a level of complacency about this bull run. The highest it has been this year so far is 15! The last...
A more cautious tone is appearing across global equity markets. Further gains to prove increasingly difficult to maintain. China poised to break higher? Global equity markets remain in their dominant bull trends. Investor portfolios are overweight and investor sentiment is positive. However, warning signals are now appearing, suggesting further gains are...
... for a .75 ($75)/contract credit. Another "Term Structure" trade (See Posts, Below). Since the beginning of the year, all of them have been setup as 16/19's or 17/20's and have been filled for around .75/contract. Naturally, I look to set these up in expiries of 90 days or less; 120 days, after all, is an awfully long time to "get your candy." That being...
In the last days and weeks overall fear indicators showing that bets and fears on a shortime drop of global stockmarkets had been rising dramatically. The main reasons - and all are geopolitics: - Trumps tradewars on China, NAFTA, Europe - Geopolitical tensions on Syria, North Korea, Russia - Upcomming First round of election in France What traders missed:...
There is a bevvy of earnings next week, starting out with NFLX on Monday after market close. It appears fairly close to being ripe for a delta neutral volatility contraction play like a short strangle since both its implied volatility rank and implied volatility are high (70 (six-month)/44). The April 28th 131/157.5 20-delta short strangle is paying 3.80 at the...
Like the period of 1996 to 1997, market can go higher together with vix. Like the period of 2007 to 2008, market can go lower with increasing volatility. Current period? anyone's guess.
There are further signs of bullish trend development in the VIX. Prices are now trading above congestion around 15.00 as momentum studies post positive divergence and continue to strengthen. The proprietary Tension Indicator (not shown) is also improving. In the coming months, expectations are for higher levels to attract, with focus turning to congestion around...
Multiple red flags appearing on the horizon. 1. VIX has taken off while SPX is still pretty much range bound. It means investors are increasingly getting jittery about the elevated equities even though the equities haven't corrected as much. Any small trigger could possibly initiate accelerated fall in this scenario. 2. US 10Y yields (not shown here) are down to...
VIX daily is back up and testing the key resistance. If there is a breakout then it could be a catalyst to see stocks lower in the short term. See how the next candle looks.
With another earnings season upon us and with quality volatility contraction earnings plays a scant ten days to two weeks out, I'm hand sitting here. After all, with things like NFLX (earnings in 8), AMD (11), and X (16) dangling out there, slightly out of reach for an ideal contraction play, putting on stuff with less than ideal metrics 45 days until expiration...
you may trade Vix ETF. negative sign
This is not a cry to long VIX by any means, but it seems we are off the lows having had the lowest implied volatility in the first quarter of 2017 EVER recorded. Realized volatility was the lowest in 40 years. What is does tell us though is that the rally is fading, uncertainty growing, and the key level to watch is the fresh low set by the S&P500 week before last.
This is a VIX futures "Term Structure" trade (see Post Below) ... . It's farther out than I like to go, but I only have one other VIX setup on -- a May 16/19 short call vertical. You can either consult the June VIX futures price and look to set up your short call using that price as a guide, or sell the spread with the short call at ~50 delta. Filled for a .75...