Volatility is low so protection is cheap now....You never know :-)
The index value indicates the level of fear among investors about the dynamics of market prices and helps assess panic or excessive optimism of the crowd against the stock market . Now index at annual lows but global indices DOW JONES and SP-500 0.04% make highs - this is euphoria. Then will panic
Truth be told, I'm not a "debit spread" guy, namely because I look at them as "one and dones" -- they either work or they don't; rolling these out for duration generally costs more money, and I don't like paying to roll, so I look at them as "one shots." Here, I looked for a risk one to make one metric for the setup ... . Metrics: Max Profit: $105/contract Max...
The VIX remains under pressure, within the November bear trend, with the close below the July 2014 trendline putting pressure on the 10.28 year low of July 2014. Falling studies anticipate extension to psychological support at 10.00, with potential for further losses to the 9.70 year low of February 2007. Still lower is the 9.39 year low of December 2006, but...
We are not experiencing a traditional "January Effect", this market is showing a strong consolidation period; with clear trends migrating towards the downside. Will this trend reverse to the upside? The answer to this question can be clarified with an analysis of the VIX. Currently, VIX is trending to the upside, this would be an indication of the return of a...
Another chart to keep in mind given skew has decoupled from the VIX!
You wouldn't have known it last week with all the inauguration hoopla, but we're in earnings season. Now that the hoopla's in the rear view mirror, earnings will take the market stage (and, yes, a bit of digesting of what all "the hoopla" meant). SPY et al. (Broad Market) From a premium seller's perspective, "SPY and friends" continues to be an unproductive...
Candlesticks - Not quite a bullish engulfing, but pretty darn close. When combined with the long upper shadows on the 5 out of 6 previous sessions, it looks like the market is pushing for more volatility. I expect the Jan 17 gap to close before breaking the December 30 high, and thus out of the channel it's creating. MACD - Bullish cross, look for...
Another "Term Structure" trade, this time in the April expiry. (I currently have one of these on in March -- a 16/19 short call vert). Here, the /VX futures contract in April is currently trading at 17.10 or so, so I'm using that price as a guide for my short call strike. Looking for a fill at .75-ish ... .
I believe we are completing our minor wave 5 up to about 2300 2310 range in this bigger wave three. The FOMC rate hike estimation for February 1st is at 97%. I do believe they will hike again on that date being that the last one did nothing. This would also coincide with an overdue DCL. But if we are in fact in a bigger wave 3 then this correction should not...
With VIX at sub-12 levels, broad market implied volatility is low here, and a basic screen run for high implied volatility rank/high implied volatility yields few high quality results. Here's what I'm looking at ... . SPY et al (Broad Market) The first expiry with greater than 15% implied volatility for SPY is in the June expiry. The most I like to go out with...
CME_MINI:ES1! AMEX:SPY TVC:SPX TVC:DJI AMEX:DIA TVC:VIX AMEX:UVXY AMEX:VXX NASDAQ:TVIX
$ AMEX:SPY TVC:SPX SPY TVC:VIX AMEX:UVXY NASDAQ:TVIX AMEX:VXX
... for a .66 ($66)/contract credit. I did this on 12/30, but neglected to post it. This was another VIX "Term Structure" trade (See Post Below) using the Feb VIX futures contract price as a guide. The Feb contract was going for 16.55, so I used the nearest strike above that price, the 17, for my short call leg. With these, I'm playing it "by ear" as to the...
just a view of the VIX for remember the past risk events and where we are now
SP500 Daily Chart It appears that we are in our micro wave 5 move to complete this bigger wave 3. That's how I see it anyways. And I think we can make it to almost 2300 before the DCL rollover. It just never seems to be able to make it all the way through those milestones marks the first time. If you zoom out you will see my little cycle indicators and if you...