Daily chart for SP500 So I saw someone else's idea about wave count with the SP500 and he may be correct. I was always wondering about the correction we had that ended in November. As you can see it dipped well below the August 15th peak. That is not suppose to happen if that was a Wave 4 corrective move. So another person had an idea that the end of the...
With Dough transitioning over to TastyWorks (it's basically Dough on steroids), I'm looking to wind up positions I've got on here over the next several weeks so that I can transition over to TastyWorks, which will not interface with TDA accounts. While I can naturally use ThinkOrSwim (ToS), it just doesn't have the features of Dough that I've come to know and...
As previously noted in other posts, the short volatility product plays I like most are "Term Structure" plays in VIX and "Contango Drift" plays in VIX derivatives, with the preference being toward the latter play, since you're getting in on a pop in VIX and then taking advantage of "Contango Drift" in the derivatives to the downside (in UVXY, VXX; SVXY is an...
Tvix is almost out of room in this descending triangle. I obviously don't need to talk about being oversold on the Vix and in a long long rally in the market. I see some analysts are talking about no sell off until after the 1st of the year due to lower taxes under Trump, just like I had suggested a few days ago. Only a few more days to prove that theory wrong...
The two types of trades I like in VIX/VIX derivatives are (1) a "Term Structure" trade in VIX options; and (2) "Contango Drift" trades in the derivatives VXX, UVXY, and (inversely) SVXY. A "term structure" trade capitalizes on current VIX spot price in relation to VIX futures months' prices which, the vast majority of the time, are higher than current spot price,...
This is XIV / SSO (double S&P). I think it is finally signaling a top here. SPY closed at 225.38. Based both on shorter term rising wedge and Longer term (blue) trendline resistance.
2HR Chart At this point I do not believe that we will get a sell off before the end of the year. I know that usually happens for tax purposes but I have an alternative theory. I think a lot of people will not sell until after the 1st due to not wanting to have Obamas high tax rate affect them versus Trumps tax cuts next year. I think it will be difficult to...
Nothing mathematical supports this / more psychological but interesting IMO Price consistently responds with extreme drops at this trendline
If you're familiar with VIX Term Structure, you'll know that the VIX spot price is currently lower than the front month /VX future. Currently, VIX is at 11.7 and the Jan VIX futures contract is at 14.55. The notion here is that the VIX spot price and the Jan VIX futures contract price will converge at some between now and the Jan VIX futures contract expiry...
VXX is severely oversold. There is a good chance for a bounce in the new year as people start taking profits!
Use this chart to see whether the Front month VIX contract is trading at a standard discount (contango) or premium (backwardation) to the second-month contract.
This chart shows how much the backwardation - when the front month trades at a premium to the second month - impacts the price of VXX which is constantly exposed to the roll-down between the two months.
Expecting a minor pullback soon before continuation of intermediate wave 3 of the 5th impulsive bullish wave on the weekly chart.
This wave count suggests we're in a wedge shaped A primary wave. Leading wedges have the wave count 5-3-5-3-5 according to Elliott's wave theory. The wedge is becoming very clear on this timeframe, and to sum it up no matter if the wave count inside the wedge is correct or not, we should short term expect more downside towards the lower side in the wedge, for...
Even though I don't anticipate doing much trading this coming week running into FOMC, old habits die hard, so, as usual, I'm running through underlyings for possible premium selling setups. With exchange traded funds, I'm looking for a rank >70 and general implied volatility >35; with individual stocks -- rank >70, implied volatility >50%. Top Implied...