The VIX is coming under fresh downside pressure, with the November bear trend extending further, with prices now approaching trendline support from 2014 and the 11.02 low of August. A tick lower in the Tension Indicator anticipates risk of a deeper reaction towards critical support at the 10.28-10.88 year lows of 2014-2015, but any immediate tests are expected to...
An interesting article on shorting the VIX and VIX derivatives: www.marketwatch.com In a nutshell, backwardation occurs (which only applies to VIX derivatives, not to the VIX itself) and this can "derail" a short VIX derivative play that is not given enough time to play out and for contango to kick in and start its inevitable erosion of the underlying, whether it...
TVIX Daily Chart SO I decided to start off with the TVIX chart. I measured the price movement of TVIX during the last rate hike which equaled out to approx. 150% which I measured on this chart from a starting price of $10. Then I measured the flash crash that occurred before that which equaled 250% which I posted. Some interesting things (maybe wishful...
USDMXN has fired a nice buy signal here, so we can enter gradually over a couple days. If it doesn't move back down under yesterday's open, we can expect significant upside to emerge from here. The fundamental key levels will tell you what prices will probably do with good accuracy. Please refer to my educational chart on the subject, or ask, for more...
Coming opportunity in volatility trading before (or arround) FOMC meeting.
For various reasons I won't get into here, I don't do butterflies very often. This is a variation on a butterfly, however -- a "broken wing" butterfly. In this case, the play is made up of a 2-wide long call vert (the 11.5 plus one of the 13.5's) and a 1-wide short call vert (one the 13.5's plus the 14.5). It's considered "broken" because flies are ordinarily...
#DowJones 21K? Monthly chart could be setting up for "head" part of shoulder at 21,000. $DJIA $INDU $DIA $DJX $VXD
#DowJones 21K? Monthly chart could be setting up for "head" part of shoulder at 21,000. $DJIA $INDU $DIA $DJX $VXD $SPX $SPY $VIX
#DowJones 21K?? Monthly chart could be setting up for "head" part of shoulder at 21,000 $DJIA $INDU $DIA $DJX $VXD $SPX $SPY $VIX
With the VIX still hovering in sub-15 territory and an examination of broad index exchange-traded funds therefore yielding less premium than I would like,* I'm turning my attention to sector exchange traded funds for possible premium selling plays. Naturally, VIX levels could change in light of the outcome of the Italian referendum (as of the writing of this, Dec...
Nothing too difficult here. I think that Italy will vote to leave the EU and we will have a little correction. BUT, I just don't think it will be that great. I am aiming for the blue box. In other words, a retracement to the 38% to 50% then bounce right before the rate hike. I do not think this vote will be as great as the Brexit because it appears to have...
Called this yesterday actually Heading back to MA cluster, then possibly bottom BB (sma 200) Invalidate with close above sma9
Daily Chart We are still on track and have not yet made a micro wave 4 correction for this larger wave 5. This is the last week before the Italy vote. It appears that we will move up until maybe Friday. The vote is on Sunday the 4th so we should see a day or two drop starting Monday maybe down to the 2206 range. Then we could see another sharp move up like...
I missed the entry by .20 (12.50 vs 12.70). Still interested... Missing runners - Just another day as a trader
The last VIX pop around elections, I chose to piddle with an SVXY ATM short put credit spread (see post below). It worked out great, but SVXY isn't the most liquid thing in the world (I knew that going in). In comparison, VIX options are about the cleanest short volatility setup you can get, although a small drawback is that you won't get the added contango...