BROAD MARKET INSTRUMENT PREMIUM SELLING Post-Brexit vote in late June, when VIX spiked to >25 (signalling a premium selling opportunity in broad market instruments like SPY/SPX and RUT/IWM in the July expiry), there has been but one >15 spike to >20 in mid-September that allowed for some premium selling in the October monthlies, which have since come off in...
In my best possible scenario-- average buy price for smart money +33=35.5 -safe range -- nearly 15 days consolidation since 9/22, and the chart still on support seems like this is a story planned ahead of time
RSI showing signs of support and wedge ready for a breakout $UVXY $TVIX
The ratio VIX/SPY goes down when SPX 0.05% goes up. This makes it easier to see the ratios lower limit (and SPX's upper limit) Today VIX/SPY broke a support. SPX has not yet mimicked this move If VIX/SPY returns to baseline (as it has before) it implies a move of SPX500 to ~2183.
The VIX index shows us that the smart money actively bought the dip from the Sept. 12th, to yesterday's high. This range gives us a long lasting support/resistance level that the market will acknowledge in the future, and that can serve as guidance for us as well. If we see a breakout from here onwards, and we manage to stay above this range, upside is highly...
We can get long NAS100 here, and exit at the resistance level above: 4733 It's highly probable to have a pullback today, before the downtrend resumes its pace. Vix is giving a buy signal here, watch all quality stocks against earnings support after the market opens. Stop by the Key Hidden Levels chatroom if you want to learn more about this. I'm holding my SPX...
I see an epic opportunity arising in VIX related products like UVXY and TVIX and would like to share my opinion on this. As most are aware, articles are popping up left and right saying that shorting the UVXY is a 100% risk-free long term investment . Some go further and label the VIX short as the trade of the decade. Moreover there are figures actually showing...
In this chart I'd like to bring a few important points to everyone's attention. First, this is a new trend, if the DJIA forecast is valid, and now that the cards are dealt, we might see a pullback, and the market can go where stops are. That's what generally happens. Try to avoid going by gut feeling, or joining the herd, so to speak. I'd reccomend keeping an eye...
For two months $SPY has been trading within a 1% range - Once on July and later on August - Total of 36 boring days that made the summer a nightmare for swing traders. Now, with VIX at 12 and $SPY just below a daily downtrend line, Volatility is expected to rise as the markets prepare for Sep FOMC on the 21st. Another push towards 220$ (2200 with SPX) is...
Last Friday $SPY confirmed the bearish signal that we got during the Summer when it closed below its recent daily uptrend line. Technically, 212$ is a support that can lead to a bullish pullback towards 216-218$ to meet resistance there. My final target zone for the bearish move is 210$ and 208$ (the 200 days MA line).
I am a mid-long term bear on the market and I am still holding my shorts on tech stocks and long VIX positions until at least next monday to see what happens. That being said, I think it is important to just remind myself to manage my bear expectations for this move. I have been short since August and I don't think I am alone as a bearish trader thirsty for a move...
My estimate for the bottom is on the chart. Then up up and away until December or January Fed rate hike
In July 2015 VXX broke out of a curving downtrend for a great return in about a week. Now this past week it is continuing to replicate the same pattern held in 2015. My thoughts are that it will drop to $12.80 and then spike to a possible $26.00 if it follows the downtrend drawn.
US30 VIX correlation chart SHORT on major corrective move