1W:
1M;
Since end of May, there has been bullish price action, however it was with relatively unimpressive volume. Light volume = Low conviction. Even though the bullish price action lacked conviction, it still was note worthy. One not worthy point is making a new HH and breaking a key resistance. Since making the HH, volume has substantially...
The SPX has been up and down more than a yo yo over the past year. Should traders and investors expect more of the same going forward? What's next for the SPX? The index has enjoyed a solid run up to this point since February lows gaining over 16%. In early May the 50/200 moving average 'golden cross' gave a bullish signal. Backtests show the 'golden cross' 4/5...
Starting in April, I started to put on long dated long-volatility plays, using dips in VIX as my guide for VXX setups. Now I'm looking ahead to what I should do to fade a spike. As previously noted in posts, I look to VIX as my guide for trades in VXX, UVXY, and SVXY, since these instruments suffer from contango and, because of that, it's difficult to call...
The market's reaction to Friday's jobs report created another Doji near the top of the trading range in $SPY.
The sentiment remains bullish as $SPY was able to erase most of the losses it opened with following the grim jobs report.
210-212$ is the immediate resistance zone but don't count out the option for a spike to take stop losses above previous record high...
With VIX back above 15, it's time to look at selling premium in SPY/SPX, IWM/RUT, or in NDX/QQQ. Out of the three, the implied volatility in IWM and RUT is the highest, followed by SPY/SPX and NDX/QQQ, so I'm likely to look at selling premium in RUT if this +15 volatility sticks around into early next week.
Preliminarily, it looks like a RUT July 1st...
Ugh. In spite of abysmal non-farm payrolls, the week ended with the VIX still in sub-15 territory, meaning that less than 45 DTE premium selling in the broader indices is "off the table" for another week in the absence of something earth-shaking occurring in the markets here. This could come in the form of the most recent "Brexit" referendum poll, which shows...
as you can see below 8/12 months of the time the JPY is heavily negatively correlated with the spx, normally between 80-90%, there also is a pattern, that the JPY/SPX stayd negatively correlated for 8 months before turning positively correlated for about 4 months, this cycle continues unbroken below..
as we can see by the red correlation being above 0, The...
There is a growing queue of IPO's which have not gone public, they cite market volatility. Looking to the IPO ETF we can see those who have IPO'ed into the volatility have underperformed considerably
As volatility is becoming more violent and frequent and generally on the rise, the source of alpha through XIV ETN products which shorts second month VIX futures to buy front month futures back is becoming less stable.
Whist the VRP (Volatility risk premium) remains technically, the period of rough water will err on the side of the statistically unlikely in terms...
