A series of events took place causing me sit back and contemplate market participants (in)sanity. First, it is known that I've was one of the first to stick my neck out and tell it how it is – the U.S. Is facing a recession in 2016 – last April. Soon after, various investment banks flirted with the potential but gave the very realistic situation very low...
If you trade options like me, then you will take a very close look at the VIX. So here we are, at the Lower Medianline Paralle of the black downsloping Fork. What does this mean? It means, that the VIX has pulled back to equlibrium - to a energy zone of equal, where all is possible again. Most of the time we can see price turns at the L-MLH in the opposite...
With VIX at sub-14 levels and without much on the earnings calendar that is ideally playable with options from a premium selling standpoint, next week is likely to be a schnooze in the absence of a broad market volatility pop. Nevertheless, there are a couple of plays I might consider. MON: MON announces earnings on April 6th before market open. With an implied...
I'm starting to (many are) think about positioning for the next long vix (long uvxy etc.) market (short) cycle. Not saying it's here, yet but many are starting to put on protection. CNBC had a good segment on options action friday 4/1 it folds into this. Last bounce for the big cycle was when vix was lingering in the 12's and dipped quickly into the upper 11's. ...
Suffice it to say, the duration of the broader market rally from mid-February to the present has caught a large number of traders by surprise, a number of whom have repeatedly attempted to call tops or turning points that would see a major sell-off of some kind and have rued the continuation of the upward trend that has yet to meaningfully break lower. Call this...
Contango rate channel displayed for UVXY. Multiply your VIX projections against the numbers for April and May expirations and you should have a range that UVXY will hit on those days. Useful for knowing when to get out of UVXY options do avoid steep theta losses. Bottom indicator shows VIX needs a sustained move above 20 at this point to get out of this...
Divergencys even against VXV They longer the divergence last, they bigger the opportunity...
See the VXX since-2015 chart for recent actions.
Couldn't break back below that green line last week. See the VXX all-time chart to see where these lines come from.
VIX started to tick up and the bottom is most likely in. Using 2008 as a reference, an eight week rising VIX may be in store, and coincident with a 12% drop in SPY.
The VIX is a mean reverting asset. In the 12's and under it has historically been a buy. Buy on.
Accumulating my short positions at this time. Long Dollar Short SPX Short Gold
Recently, I've been warming up to "synthetics" a bit ... . They offer various advantages over the garden variety of covered call, not the least of which is capital efficiency, since they're generally cheaper to put on than regular covered calls and you get to "pick" the price of your "synthetic long stock" without actually waiting for that price to actually be...
Potential sell signal, but check PA first, as always.
It seems we're at the inflection point once again. Maybe a day or two out from SMAs and MACDs turning positive for UVXY, and these big spikes in block trades are usually a precursor it seems to market sell offs - big players taking profits likely. I have multiple other charts that support this view with OnbalanceVol/Accum/distribution; potential slide in oil,...