vix may bounce herewith uvxy at all time lows and major indices still selling off a bit theres good conviction a bounce in vix may be underway as futures consolidate. heres what revisiting signal and estimate may look like.
1-VIX
S&P500 and VIX Cycles say rally more likely from now onOn this 1W time-frame we look into the S&P500 index (SPX) and the Volatility Index (VIX) since 1990. We've used the Sine Waves on an (approximately) VIX bottom-to-bottom basis in order to identify what the S&P500 normally does at this part of the Cycle.
As you see from the current point and until VIX Cycle's next bottom (blue zone), the S&P500 in a total of three occasions, it has been on a Rally twice and the other time January 28 2022 - February 07 2005, it was on its way to the final drop of the Dotcom Bear Market, lasting 35 weeks and then a strong Rally followed.
If the above is anything to follow then the S&P500 has more probabilities of rising consistently for the rest of this part of VIX's Cycle and if the case is like 2002, then drop for the next 35 weeks and the rally aggressively.
Which scenario do you think is more likely?
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
You may also TELL ME 🙋♀️🙋♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
$VIX Analysis, Key Levels and Targets$VIX Analysis, Key Levels and Targets
VIX was totally crushed, y’all… but vix hates to leave open gaps… it’s truly an amazing thing…. Usually one of the first things I check in the morning is whether there’s a gap from the session before and it says a lot… usually vix doesn’t take this long to fill gaps… this one was opened August 19th…
Market Update 11/24/22: VIX FocusedPretty much were back to the big averages that we were around during the august 16th and 17th drop.
I try to keep it brief in this video.
If I HAD to guess, I would say the market will move back down soon based on the VIX. A big break in a 5 year trend would be for the VIX to drop under 17.50 and start a new week or month candle under that level.
Take care.
MARKET PULL BACK IN THE NEAR FUTURE VIX is showing the supply level at $34s and demand at $19s. The average downtrend is 36 days (since Dec 2021) and we are approaching the demand zone. Solely based on this technicality, I expect some recognizable market pullbacks in the near future.
Spx500 Bear Case #2 [Primary]This is the second bear case,
and it just so happens to be my primary scenario on the US Stock market .
Just wanted to get the simple counts out of the way, before sharing this one.
---
Using the expanding diagonal fractal for the first wave from ath,
it's possible the spx500 is only in "wave a" on this local move up (of a larger a-b-c)
this is currently the scenario i'm personally leaning towards.
let me explain why:
-lines up with my dxy projection.
-insider buys, are about to flip insider sells.
-retail short interest is at record high levels.
-retail is usually wrong.
-so how do we get retail out, while still dropping the market?
1 word. chop.
------
If the market chops for another 3-6+ months, every last bear standing will get absolutely rekt.
And only after-which, once the short interest disappears, and the last put expires worthless-
will the markets see the final cataclysmic collapse.
---------
Stay safe, and don't go into a trade without a plan.
🔺
Ps. i recently called the expanding diagonal fractal out, and it ended up front running my target, which was kinda unexpected.
I understand why it did as of now, and it was an important lesson for the future.
check out that post via:
🔺
Russel2000 Bear Case.Good evening,
This post is part of a series of requests i recently received.
The request was: "What is your bearish projection on the US stonk market".
---
The russel2000, if I'm not mistaken -
has thousands of small-cap stocks within it,
here's my bearish projection for it.
---
My estimated top for the russel2000 = $1876 ~ $2392
High probability target = $2036
---
My estimated bottom on this one is roughly between $1527 ~ $1163
High probability target = $1324
🔺
Nasdaq Bear Case.Good evening,
This post is part of a series of requests i recently received.
The request was: "What is your bearish projection on the US stonk market".
---
Well, this right here is my primary bear case for the Nasdaq. Keep in mind, this is just a single bear case from my perspective; there's always many different potential outcomes, and it's my duty to discover them, and share them with you - the trader.
>Just because you are seeing this picture here today, does not mean this is what will happen .
---
Tuesday November 29th 2022 ~ December 21st 2022 = my calculated top for the Nasdaq.
Estimated to sit between $13,016 ~ $15,308.
High probability target = $13,697.
ps. if money rotates, or a proper catalyst appears, nasdaq could squeeze up to some of the higher targets on my chart to create a regular or expanded flat.
---
Friday May 12th 2023 ~ Tuesday October 24th 2023 = my calculated bottom.
Estimated to sit between $9449 ~ $7361.
High probability target = $8085.
---
🔺
Copper, Weekly (log), The 2008 AnalogyLet's see what the 2008 analogy says about the next thing. Currently, we can observe a similarity in many charts, e.g., the S&P 500 index, VIX, gold, and USOIL / UKOIL, to what was happening in 2008. Copper is no exception, and the analogy indicates copper's price decline. If the price follows it perfectly, the declines may end in the second zone. But I do not expect such accuracy; there is also the closer (first) zone, which can bring it on. I will write no more about it, why it may happen. Check out the related ideas.
✅VIX LONG FROM SUPPORT🚀
✅VIX will soon retest a key support level
So I think that the index will make a rebound
And go up to retest the supply level above
LONG🚀
✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅
⬆️ Break Out, 24th November 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ On the eve of Thanksgiving, SPY broke out and closed above the recent high by the tiniest of margins. Long only investors will be happy. I'm guessing a few more Turkeys will make it to the dinner table. The sacrifice of the Turkey may be premature if the break out is not confirmed by further Bullish price action post the holiday. 🦃
➤ VIX is fast approaching the 20 level where it starts to get interesting for the Bears. If the VIX manages to rebound higher, it could mean the end of the Bull run. If we were to follow the 29th March and 16th August examples, then price needs to hit a resistance level too. I have 411/4110 marked for SPY/SPX500.
➤ Note that the up move since the yearly low is NOT a "Change of Character" - see the weekly SPY chart insert. If prices break lower, it confirms that this Bullish move is just a Bear market rally.
➤ I remain long with a +68% long exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction.
➤ Conclusion: Not a time to celebrate for the Bulls.
WTI Crude Oil, Weekly (log), The 2008 AnalogyThe actual USOIL weekly chart is confusingly similar to the 2008 daily chart. By analogy, the oil price should go south even to twenty-something dollars. The current economic situation confirms it, as the leading economic indicator (LEI) announces a recession in the near future. Also, moving average analysis confirms it. I matched the closest smoothing moving average (53), which was support after by candle closes (two taps) a year ago. And now, the same moving average was a strong resistance also with two taps by candle closes/opens.
$VIX filled gap, NOW WHAT?!Buy on rumor
Sell on news
REMEMBER THAT!
Feds gave lil gift - No one wants to rattle this time of year
OK, $VIX did what we expected
GAP FILLED
Now WHAT?
We wait to be sure that "top" is in, again
BUT until we get DIRECTION, can nibble here & there
@ Symmetrical Triangle support
🚨 We break Long Term = NEW BULL
#VIX $SPX $SPY #stocks
VIX Potential For A Pop In this update we review the recent price action the VIX (Volatility S&P500 Index) and identify the next high probability trading opportunity and price objectives to target
VIX overextending the trendSPX has been destabilizing both VIX and DXY - both of them fell out of their trajectories because of the euphoric and arogant push of the market - I don't expect the blow-off top to happen - unless SPX breaks ~4015 area - until then I remain bearish.
Expecting all markets to retrace today.
➕ Stay Positive, 23rd November 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ The sideways movement looks to be resolving to the upside. The SPY/SPX500 is looking to breach and stay above the psychologically important 400/4000 level. VIX has collapsed heading towards the 20 level.
➤ Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) or better known as Trend Followers are a group of institution traders/whales. They are computer driven algorithms that take medium term positions across hundreds of markets. The stronger the trend (up or down) the larger their positions (subject to volatility constraints). I understand these strategies well since I used to work for one of the largest CTAs in the world.
➤ As this Bullish run continues, a major increase in their long equity positions may be starting to trigger. This is exacerbated further with the lower volatility e.g. falling VIX. Lower volatility means the ability to take on larger positions per unit of risk. This buying will be a major support for equities.
➤ I have increased my long exposure to +68%. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction.
➤ Conclusion: Stay positive, I'm riding the up trend for now.
S&P500 melt up - has the seasonal rally just kicked into gear?Top-level view - Long and strong for 4200, cutting on a 3- & 8-day EMA crossover
On the day we see the US500 cash closing +1.4% and above 4000, taking the bear market rally to 14.6% from the 13 Oct low.
All sectors rallied with energy the best performer gaining 3.2% - breadth was broad at a stock level and we see 89% of stocks in the index closing higher – hard to paint a more bullish picture. Not sure we can fault the intra-day tape either - it was an out and out trend day and as soon as price smashed through VWAP in European trade, retested and found buyers, it was all uphill with a solid melt-up into the close.
Of course, we have a World Cup underway, and a bunch of traders took time out here, where we see S&P500 futures volume an anemic 1.1m contracts, while cash volumes were 26% below the 30-day average. As anyone who was long and held through US trade would attest – you can still make money in a low-volume environment.
Has the rally got legs?
One prominent strategist who has called the US500 well throughout 2022 is Mike Wilson (of Morgan Stanley) who has pulled out his playbook, calling for the US500 to rally to 4100-4300 by year-end – however, once we get past the turn his call is that the index retreats to a range of 3300 to 3000 by end Q1, before staging a solid rally into the end-2023. It's not often we see such definition from a sell-side strategist and it's gutsy – his logic is sound but what the market does is another thing.
The technicals favour further upside
If we look at the setup of the US500 on the daily a long bias is certainly the favoured position. Naturally if the flow and structure change and become more bearish, we do something about it quickly – as traders we react to signal, or it costs.
Importantly, we’ve seen price break out of the bull flag, which if we take the move from the 3 Nov low targets 4280.
We have the 200-day MA lurking at 4050, and while we saw price reject this average in April and mid-August, a bullish break here could see further longs being added – certainly, the systematic trend traders would be adding to a modestly long position, and this could propel the index into trend resistance.
Consider the idea of FOMO and FOMU (fear of meaningfully underperforming) – the S&P500 is -16% and if youre an active money manager and benchmark to the index and the index is going up then you simply have to put cash to work and chase – or you risk underperforming and not getting paid.
We know there is a ton of cash on the sidelines. A VIX testing 20% is also a bullish sign for risk.
A stop that keeps you in the trade - If we use a simple 3 and 8-day EMA crossover stop, then longs are still in play, and this can keep you in the trade and remove the emotion of taking profits in a strong trending environment.
So, one to watch – while volumes are low and we eye huge data in December, the melt-up in equities is starting to take shape
VIX GAP ALMOST FILLED @$21.27Gap on the VIX daily @ $21.27, almost filled today. 100% of daily gaps on the VIX fill. Should see a move on the VIX back up after this fill, likely on 11/23/22.
The $VIX is approaching the confluence of support.The $VIX could be the star of the 2022 Santa rally.
VIX is getting for its own prime timeWatching 20-21 zone for a support.
Historically VIX 20 zone is the bear/bull line.
I expect that to me either tested or even broken for a fake move down and then start to explode.
When VIX is at 45+ watch for the market capitulation. Ideal target for the VIX is 65+ early next year.
When its moving above 35 and especially 45, no no longs for me period, only sell the rips (if there will be any)
Im in with Apr VIX 35 calls, will add tomorrow and on the 28th
S&P Trend VIXS&P chart against VIX on the monthly time frame.
Comparing the longer term trends, when the VIX cycles up and down we get rally's and corrections, but if theres a sustained VIX trend change, it could indicate overall market direction change.
IMPORTANT
-Normally indicated by higher highs/lows and lower highs/lows on VIX channel.
None of this should be interpreted as financial advice, I am not a professional or certified financial adviser! all charts, and or analysis' are my personal opinions and observations only!
nasdaq to 20k?!good evening,
---
consider this post somewhat fictional for now, created more for entertainment purposes, but i want you to know that there are some serious data points which i'm going to bring up to build the case that the stock market has found a long term bottom.
---
~our monthly indicator is finally oversold for the first time since 2009 market low and is on the verge of crossing bullish.
~nasdaq is backtesting the monthly ichimoku cloud.
~0.382 cycle wave 4 target hit through a very complex correction .
~the monthly rsi has confirmed a hidden bear.
~the us dollar found a top and is headed down to about 80 bucks over this next year.
~us10y, topped out.
~fed might run out of money if they continue to press the markets.
~fear is at all time high.
~retail short positions are at all time high.
~and i'm buying everything.
---
the cycle w5 target on nasdaq sits at $20,000 and we could be in the early stages of beginning that ascension.
---
ps. take my words with a total grain of salt, as i could be very much dreaming here.
ps2. in my last big nasdaq post, i called the top, but was early by a few months. it also went a bit higher, so if i adjust the target with the current data, we have reached the 4th wave target successfully.
✌
