Do not pray to the false gods of guaranteed bailouts. "The problem with all this is that it's their own policies that created the fragility, their own policies that created the dislocations and now we're relying on their policies to address the dislocations," Peter Boockvar of Bleakley Financial Group said. "It's all quite a messed-up world." -CNBC Not everyone...
UK is a warning signal for everyone. This is what happens when central banks attempt to pivot in the current inflationary environment. The Global Lehman event accelerated after the September U.S. CPI, but was paused by BOE temporary intervention. Next U.S. CPI follows the end of BOE intervention. A Lehman crash now equals approx -60% in GDOW/SPX. The softer...
during capitulation selling in spx vix has much steeper move up, but right now it is making gradual gains alongside a market that is selling big names like tsla at an astonishing rate. if we finally decide to bottom expect uvxy to head back down toward signal, sss ma, vwap and bottom of envelope. if we break to new lows uvxy should head right ip outside the top of...
After being in a "range" of sorts for the past year or so, is the VIX about to break out to 50 and above? If this proves to be correct, due to some unforeseen event, then arguably one can say that a bottom is near. However, if we grind in this range, making lower lows and lower highs, then we can grind down to lower levels for... well, for quite a while, imo.
🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ US indices returns were wide spread. With DJIA finishing flat and Nasdaq continuing to fall. Large intra-day gains were unable to hold up. S&P500 hit a new low but the daily close held above the previous yearly low set on 30th Sept that can be considered as temporary support. VIX may also be peaking. There is a potential for a good...
In my opinion the market is trying to find a bottom. How far it will go down, Im not sure, but anything lower that 3450-ish, will take market to very oversold territory. Everyone is waiting for Thursday’s CPI, depending on the result this can go either way: 1. Inflation is rising - this means FED will be rise rates by 0.75 in November, strong move downside, but...
Careful here, this can explode at any time imo. Ideally we see a quick trip below 30, but it doesnt have too. Lets see if we can get that move down into CPI, so far its not as promising
VIX is testing the key resistance yet again. The weekly stochastic near 80 is very high and usually signals a rally in stocks is not far away at least in the short term. The VIX call buyers are nowhere to be seen so this also confirms that the VIX is over extended. See if we get yet another rejection off the key level. Retail stock traders have rarely been so...
🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ...for the Bears as equity prices continue to fall in an orderly manner. The NASDAQ closing on a fresh new low, S&P500 not far behind. That being said, we did see prices reverse aggressively when the S&P500 made a new daily closing low on 30th Sep, so there's that possibility once again. ➤ Across in Europe, the indices couldn't hold...
Will we ever see VIX at 16 again? Here I explain the mean reverting nature of VIX. Then I predicted exactly were VIX and JHEQX would be on Friday, October 7th. Now we're sitting at the edge of a precipice of the worst financial disaster in history. So I wrote an indicator to give us retail traders an inside eye so maybe we could catch a long vol...
NIFTY Weekly Forecast 10-14 October 2022 We can see that currently the volatility is around 2.61% for this week, falling from the 2.75% from the last week. Currently there is around 24.5% that the asset is going to close either above or below the channel: TOP 17540 BOT 16550 The current volatility percentile is around 50th, placing us in average risky...
... for the ultimate drop. So we have broken the top curve - that is bad as hell already in itself. Additionally we retested it and have been trapped since then between the top descending trendline and the curve. What I expect to happen next is for VIX to consolidate ( or break to the upside and retest the trendline ) until EOY. Check my US100 idea to see what...
🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equities took a dive towards the lower support level. Note that this support level has already been violated by a daily close to set a yearly low on 30th Sep. This makes it less reliable as a line of defence. Still, price did bounce off that level prior to end Friday trade. ➤ The momentum is with the Bears but we should tread...
Unfortunately the market sentiment is very negative, SPX can break the down channel either down or up. Watch the VIX for more anticipation - it is nearing its 2SD where we could see some reactions as it acts as resistance. In case it goes up towards 45, we will see SPX dropping to 3200 area, in case VIX would cool down to its average values, there could be a 30 -...
Another interesting setup here Which way it will breakout? My bet is up...
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Bears and Bulls await for the "Great Reset" (or as the Fed might state: "financial accident") that will lead to the Fed Pivot. The question is where (and when) will the pivot occur? "Watch your step while peering into the abyss. The cliff edge is crumbling faster and is closer than we realize..."
🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ There was a lack of follow-through by the Bulls as prices retreated Thursday, giving up yesterday's gains. This may just be a pause in proceedings but with VIX moving into my panic zone once more, I'm inclined to take a bearish stance. ➤ If I'm right, I'm looking for prices to test the yearly low with a potential higher low or a...