Uptrend channel since July 20th (60k resistance) BTCHello friends & community,
I've taken quite a while away from the markets to really slow the mind down and do a lot of reflecting on my performance in 2021. I'd go on big win streaks but then eventually lose it all due to high leverage (usually 10x+) and once squeeze in the opposite direction of my position would wipe out all my previous gains and even most of the starting balance as well. In my perspective, I don't think leverage higher than 2x is appropriate for this market as the volatility is already extremely high and there's no other market in the world like crypto (bitcoin & alts) - the highest leverage I'll ever use moving forward will be 2x. I was trading on ByBit, but trading future's leads to gambling for me and I've decided to stop using the exchange. In my country Kraken is regulated for the most part and completely legal, and they only offer on spot up to 5x, so I'll be using that and leaving the leverage at 2x highest for ALL existing positions. When I first got involved with crypto currency and trading I wanted to make a LOT of money and FAST, but this was ultimately a high level of greed and it transferred directly into my trading performance, and the fact I was using such leverage made the stress of learning my first market cycle THAT much more difficult because of the added emotions that were constantly being faced. After a year and a half of being in this space I've realized there is no rush to the finish line because surviving is the most important part during the race. 1-2x leverage is MORE than enough to make it long term. All it takes is one successful market cycle to make it, and I guess the 1st market cycle is for learning and the second is where you put all the knowledge and understanding of the markets into action and take it all very slow and with ease.
During the next cycle 90% of my portfolio will be in cold storage / spot long (no leverage) & 10% is what I'll be trading with until 2025-2026.
NOW, the charts.
Scenario A) We've been in an uptrend channel structure since July 20th, 2021. This was the time period when all of crypto was extremely fearful calling for $20,000 or lower. It turns out the fear & greed sentiment is actually more useful than TA because it blocks out the noise of the market and shows you where the market is likely to squeeze next. $60,000 is big resistance, if we reject that level I'll be looking at $48,000 for support. We've been in a period of greed / extreme greed for the last week now as we're approaching close to ATH's. If whales wanted to squeeze the market and start a sell off I'm sure it will be in coming weeks.
HOWEVER,
Scenario B) If $60,000 gets flipped into support and closes a weekly candle above it's likely we visit ATH's or much higher ($100,000)+ So, the next big move will be very important.
(this scenario will be posted directly under this post for references)
Summary:
1) Don't touch leverage higher than 2x and you'll be fine.
2) Be unbiased and be open to the buyers and sellers scenario playing out, .
3) Survive the race instead of trying to sprint to the finish line.
I'll be posting updates to this post as time goes on, and will only post again once either,
A) the uptrend breaks to the upside and prints new ATH's by 2021.
B) the uptrend fails and sellers take control.
Please like/comment and have a great week.
👍
