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30plannedtrades

Median Lines and Finding the Right Path When it comes to learning about markets and trading, finding the right path and committing to it is the hardest part. The right path has little to do with any technical analysis method. It has to do with structuring our mental framework so that we fundamentally change how we experience markets, trading, and loss. In the video, I show some Median Line and Action/Reaction work but this work is useless by itself. No tool is good or bad, they are just tools we use to comprehend markets. The problem arises when the tools start using us and we think there is some kind of magic to them. The essence of our strategy should be to structure our methods and mindset towards functionality. The journey we should commit to is one marked by fostering accountability and responsibility in all our actions. The swing trade Idea I show, takes method and structures it into function. Shane
NYSE:BXEducation
by ShaneBlankenship
2
Learning Price Action Through ObservationLearning Happens when you're open and curious and making observations from what you see. From there, you must be mentally balanced to take action on your observations. In this post, I focus on the price action that happens in the pivot portion of a swing cycle. If you make observations of this area you will see a certain kind of repeating behavior that can help you understand and design methods for trading swings. You will notice that the market likes to wash everybody out of their positions before pivoting to continue its swing. I have a look at two of the ways this shows up in the price action of a pivot. The first is an engulfing bar that expands and swallows at least 3 of the previous bars. The second is a Gap Swap where there will be a WRB Gap making an effort in one direction just to be followed by another WRB GAP that reverses that effort and direction and shows that the balance of power has shifted. This is just a small part of what makes up a swing but it factors into my overall methods and trade plan. You can make observations yourself on pivots and see what you can learn. Shane
NYSE:STNGEducation
by ShaneBlankenship
What Is Flowing With The Market? We have all heard that it is a good idea to go with the flow of the market but what does that look like? It's not enough to just read about flowing with the market, it must be practiced and experienced. We must acquire the skill of following markets up and down through its changes seamlessly. A disciplined trading plan will have an objective method and will objectively define entry, stop, exit, and management. Part of any good method is never wondering if the market is going up or down or about to turn, It's doing what it's doing. You want to independently know this information without having to check outside sources. In the video, I show a simple way to practice using a 100-period moving average, but you can use anything you want as long as it is objective and follows the market. With just a few rules we can use the moving average to tell us if the market is up and we are looking for longs, or if the market is down and we are looking for shorts, or if it's neutral and we are neutral. This is a letting go practice, a learning to change with change. Shane
NASDAQ:ODFL
by ShaneBlankenship
Tracking The Footprints of WRB GapsThis is the first in a series of posts on Gaps. Gaps are a sudden supply/demand imbalance that shows up in the price bars of a chart, It's the expansion that comes after a contraction. Gaps will show us a significant area of buyers/sellers that take control and when they lose that control. In the video, I discuss and define a Wide Range Bar (WRB) Gap and show how to mark it out on a chart. A WRB Gap is a bar larger than the last 3 bars with a space between the previous bar and the subsequent bar. We will be marking the base of the gap. If it's an up Gap, mark out the bottom 1/3 of the bar, if it's a down gap, mark out the upper 1/3 of the bar. We can then make observations about how price interacts with the base of this gap when or if it gets there. Then begin to notice where in the swing process the Gap is happening. Don't make conclusions, just observe and learn. There are many ways to trade Gaps but first, we must first lay out some foundations and then come up with objective ways to see them. For now, simply look for the biggest ugliest bars on your chart and mark them out and observe. These are footprints that we can follow and track. Shane
AMEX:ARKKEducation
by ShaneBlankenship
2
One-Line Practice: Set Yourself Aside and FollowIn this video, I set up a trading plan and introduce a trend line exercise you can practice in any market and in any time frame. There is no one right way to draw a trend line, it's a matter of function and what you are trying to see. We will be drawing a trend line off two relative (same size swings). This will identify the footprints of organized volatility on a chart. This exercise is designed so that you can learn about markets and price flow in your own hand. Its objectives are: 1. Learn to isolate relative market structures. 2. Learn to set yourself aside and follow price no matter what price is doing. 3. Allow the practice and price flow to teach you. We first need to make some objective swing definitions: Confirmed Swing High/Low: A new high confirms a swing low and a new low confirms a swing high. Balanced/Relative Swing: Same size reaction legs. One Line Practice Instructions: 1. Identify two confirmed relative (same size reaction legs) swings. 2. Anchor a trend line at the two lows and make observations (not expectations) about how price interacts with the line. 3. Always follow the last two relative confirmed swings with the trend line. 4. Draw a box across the top of each swing and observe how price interacts with the boxes. By identifying two same sized swings that confirmed new highs, we have found some organized volatility and behavior. We can then participate in that continued behavior or have a way to know when it changes. Shane
NYSE:NOWEducation
by ShaneBlankenship
2
Organized Volatility: More One-Line PracticeIn this video, I follow up on the trend line exercise I introduced in the last post. The exercise is designed so that you can learn about markets and price flow in your own experience. There is beauty and harmony in each chart that shows the footprints of the buyers and sellers. To most people, the price action on a chart looks chaotic. It's not chaotic, you need to learn how to look, and how to see. This is the beginning of designing a structured method for trading and It starts with some openness and curiosity. This trend line practice isolates 2 confirmed swings with the same size reaction legs. By identifying two same sized swings, we have found some organized volatility and behavior. We can then participate in that continued behavior or have a way to know when it changes. Shane
NASDAQ:EXLS
by ShaneBlankenship
Gaps and How Markets Move In Contraction and ExpansionThere are several ways to trade gaps but first, there should be a solid understanding of what Gaps are and how they show up. Markets aren't that hard to read if we have some simple ways to see them that adhere to the principles of movement. All markets move in contraction and expansion. A Gap is the sudden supply/demand imbalance that comes out of the contraction and shows up as the expansion. These expansions can even be used to measure how far the next expansion will go. Start with a simple bar chart and erase everything else off the chart. Look and simply see the dense areas of contraction (Range). Then see the expansion (Gap), followed by another contraction. Look for same-size contractions and expansion and you will start to see how organized price flow can be. It's no different than swings in that minor contractions and expansions make up the major contractions and expansions. Shane
Editors' picks
NASDAQ:KTOSEducation
by ShaneBlankenship
19
A Bad Trade Plan Is Better Than No Trade PlanTraders often talk about the need to be patient but to be patient, we must know what we are being patient for. That is why we have a trade plan and know ahead of time exactly where to enter, where to place a stop, where to exit, and how much size to put on. In this post I continue with our trade planning exercise of 30 planned trades by making a trade plan for LEN. Keep in mind that the exercise is all about learning consistency and discipline and not about the method or whether the trade wins or loses. In the video, I speak of not being worried about losing all 30 trades in a row. It's not that I have steel nerves, it's that i have planned ahead of time for 30 losses with my position size. Shane
NYSE:LENLong
by ShaneBlankenship
The Gap Between What Is and What Will BeThere are 5 basic ways to trade a Gap or any line. In this video, I discuss two ways to enter the market using a Gap before I make the trade plan. The Gap entry techniques by themselves are of little use, but if we make a few distinctions in market structure and the process of a swing cycle, they can become functional. Swing cycles have a process that they go through. As long as we understand that process we can view Gaps in the light of where they happen in that process. I'm going to focus these two Gap entry techniques in the lower portion of the reaction leg at the bottom pivot of a swing. The Gaps are what make up the pivot portion of the swing. If you observe markets and swings you will often see this distinct pivot portion of a swing, it looks like a U at the bottom of a reaction leg as the buyers wrestle control back from the sellers. Shane
Editors' picks
NYSE:RBLXEducation
by ShaneBlankenship
9
Position Sizing: Learning to Lose Position sizing is one of the components of a trading plan, and it's important to be just as disciplined and consistent with this as with all other parts of the plan. Position sizing is defining how much we will risk for each and our objective is to consistently get the most profit with the least amount of risk. So, how much should you risk per trade? There is no one-size-fits-all answer, but to manage our risk consistently, we must establish simple, objective, and common-sense rules grounded in the realities of trading. Let's take a look at some of those realities • As traders, we should expect to lose more often than win and must learn how to manage losses effectively. • At some point, we will face drawdowns with many consecutive losses. • Successful trading results from a series of many trades and the compounding of gains, not just from being right on one or a few trades. In the video, I will show a simple guideline for calculating how much to risk per trade based on your risk tolerance over a series of trades and a drawdown number. I'm going to give you a default drawdown of 30 consecutive losses. For example, if you have a $10,000 account and don’t want to lose more than 15% ($1,500) of your account in drawdowns, you would divide $1,500 by the default drawdown of 30 stops, which would give you $50 per trade (1/2% of the account per trade). This plan allows you to lose 30 times in a row while staying within your risk tolerance. This doesn’t mean you have to risk the entire $50 per trade; consider it a maximum amount. If you are relatively new to trading or still fine-tuning your approach, I suggest trading very small amounts. Less than 1/4% of your account balance. Choose what feels comfortable and stick to it consistently. This allows you to make many trades while learning and not damage yourself. Be deliberate and create a plan to earn the right to size. For instance, require at least a small profit after two months and comfort with your method before incrementally increasing your risk per trade. Repeat this process every two months before increasing your size again. It's this kind of work that helps to balance your psychological mindset. You don't get that from books about trading psychology, you get it from grounded and deliberate practice. Use my position sizing calculations as guidelines and adjust accordingly. Once it is set, be consistent in what you do.
NASDAQ:ASOEducation
by ShaneBlankenship
Defining Target for Risk Reward: Maybe you shouldn't?The trade plan is broken up into parts. We have an objective and consistent entry, stop, and exit plan. Here I will be talking about the exit plan and setting targets that will give you a particular risk/reward ratio. There are no absolutes when it comes to what risk/reward you should be aiming for, a lot has to do with how you handle risk and loss and your overall understanding of markets. Defining the stop (risk) is relatively easy compared to defining the target (reward). Mostly you need a clean set of statistics on an objective method. This will give you an average distance that the swing will run in relation to your method. The reward part of the equation is a function of how far your stop is to your entry. There is no one-size-fits-all when it comes to trading. For many, it may be best not to set a target, but instead use something simple and objective like a moving average to exit the trade. This way, you get what the market gives you while incorporating consistency and objectivity into your exit plan. Keep it simple, objective, and consistent, and learn as you go. In the video, I make something up on the spot that may give you some ideas. I use a 20ema as a profit stop only after price has made a new high. It's simple, principle-based, and it's objective. No matter what your method, knowing where you are in the swing cycle will help in defining entry, stop, and target, and this will directly influence the risk/reward ratio. Shane
AMEX:IWMEducation
by ShaneBlankenship
2
Context and Learning To Change With ChangeOne of the hardest things for traders, or anyone for that matter, is to adapt to change. Mostly we get stuck when things change, which makes trading difficult since the very nature of markets is change. This is where the cliché 'going with the flow' originates, but simply understanding the cliché isn't enough; we must internalize and practice it and get it in our bones. In this post, I will outline a trade plan for RNG. This is a part of our '30 Planned Trades' series, where we plan every aspect of the trade ahead of time and then execute what we have planned. One aspect of a trade plan is the method or setup. Setups don’t happen in a vacuum, there is a context that determines the meaning of the content. I’m going to approach context very simply here as the thing that decides if the market is going up or down. I often read things about how I should follow the trend or go with the flow or don’t fight the market, but exactly what trend or flow should I follow? It’s too abstract, so I’m going to fix a cycle to follow and learn to let go and change when it changes. In the video, I show the basics of a simple practice you can try, using a rolling 100-bar cycle to determine if we are looking for long setups, short setups, or in a transitional or neutral phase. I not only want to be precise and consistent in my Trade Plans, I want to be consistent in my methods. By adhering to a fixed cycle and adapting with changes, I avoid the need to guess or predict market directions, maintaining balance in my approach. Think about this: If you charge your mind with the impossible task of predicting a market when markets are unpredictable, you will end up a nervous wreck and then wonder why your trading is so emotional. I encourage you to try this practice. Since it keeps you from constantly looking to the left of the chart or at higher time frames for more information, it will likely push you out of your comfort zone into the unknown, which is a good start. Shane
NYSE:RNGEducation
by ShaneBlankenship
What Is an Expanding Swing?Markets move in contraction/expansion. Small swings can be thought of as a form of contraction and the bigger swing is a form of expansion. An Expanded Swing is simply a reaction leg that is bigger than the previous reaction leg or legs. Its minor swings growing up to be major swings. This represents a change in behavior that often causes confusion among the shorts and the longs. The shorts are fearful cause the market is now backing up on them and the longs are fearful cause they see a market now turning up and getting away from them. This confusion creates an opportunity for those that are sitting back with a plan. To see this price action on a chart, it helps to have some simple and objective definitions for mapping the market and i show this in the video. First, we use market structure to read the market, and then we use a trading structure (trade plan) to structure the actual trade where we manage risk. Shane
NYSE:OIIEducation
by ShaneBlankenship
Nothing Works, Either The Trader Works or Doesn't WorkThis post is a trade plan of IOT. Making a consistent trade plan helps to structure ourselves as traders. This give us some control in the ever-changing uncontrollable environment of markets. At first, it may seem tedious to do all this work, but that is only because our mind resists any kind of structure. The title of this post is saying to quit chasing after the perfect method and spend some time setting our own foundations. Implementing a focused consistent method is like a framework that you can learn from and even design new methods from within that framework. The key is the focus and consistently in what we do. In the video, I also talk about the components and process of a swing and how I use them to design my methods. Don't think in terms of technical analysis, think about it in terms of structuring simple buyers and sellers to see who is in control at any given time. The end of the video gets cut off a bit because i tend to babble too much and run out of time but there will be more as I go through the 30 trades exercise. Shane
NYSE:IOTLong
by ShaneBlankenship
Review: Did You Make a Clear Plan? Did You Follow That Plan?We can break up the review section of the trading into several distinct sections. 1. Review for discipline and personal insight 2. Review for performance (statistics) 3. Review for market insight 4. Review for method development I'm going to do the first section "Review For Discipline". We can keep this simple and ask 2 questions. 1. Did you make a clear and objective plan? 2. Did you then do what you said you were going to do in the plan? These questions demand honest, yes-or-no answers. They force you to confront your trading discipline head-on, without room for excuses or escape. If the answer is no that's ok, just start over with the commitment to keep at it and don't spend too much time on regrets. You might need to make your plan more clear or simply learn the discipline to stay with it. Keep in mind that this isn't about whether you won or lost, it is about learning consistency and discipline. Shane
NYSE:RCLEducation
by ShaneBlankenship
Market Structure: Seeing In SwingsMarket Structure is simply making distinctions in price flow. its putting structure around what looks like chaos so that we have a way to measure and orient ourselves to any market in any timeframe. When I look at a market, I want to see objectively in swings. Swings are the common thread that weaves through all markets and timeframes, providing a clear indication of who is in control at any given moment. They consist of distinct components and follow a process, forming the foundation of my trading strategies and setups. Market Structure Definitions: Confirmed Swing High/Low: A new high confirms a swing low and a new low confirms a swing high. Relative: Major Swing: The largest reaction leg in your frame. Minor Swing: the next largest reaction leg. Balanced/Relative Swing: Same size reaction legs. Expanded Swing: Reaction leg larger than previous reaction leg. Components of a Swing: Impulse Leg: The leg that takes out a previous high or low. Reaction Leg: The retracement or pullback after the impulse leg. Impulse Leg Shelf: a small range at the end of an impulse leg Reaction Leg Shelf: A small range at the bottom of a reaction leg
NYSE:CMAEducation
by ShaneBlankenship
2
Do You Know What You Are Being Patient for?Patience in trading is the discipline of being with your restless energy when things aren't happening they way you want them to. If we are to be patient, we must know what it is we are being patient for. That is part of what making a trade plan is all about. I know I’m being patient for the conditions of my setup to line up. After that i know I’m being patient for my planned entry to hit. Then I know being patient and waiting to either get stopped out or start to manage profits. There is no escape other than to make up some justification to break my discipline and try to make something happen or force the trade. The analysis for this trade is simple and straightforward. FNV is going down according to the fixed cycle (amount of bars on the chart) I’m looking at, therefore I want to sell a pullback. The rest is just structuring an exact entry and stop along with management after im in the trade. Understanding and practicing patience in trading is not just about waiting; it's about disciplined waiting with a clear purpose and strategy. Its a practice. Shane
NYSE:FNVEducation
by ShaneBlankenship