Selling CableSeeing today's high test bar close rejecting a past level acting as both support and resistance within close proximity of a Fibonacci cluster (38.2% and 50%) drawn from two previous swing/cycle highs and rejecting the falling trend line for a third time highlights this end of day set up as a potential selling opportunity. Recent lower highs and lower lows signal a continuation of this new forming down trend after price failed to rally higher in the bull run up to May.
382 Fibonacci Retracement
GBPAUD 4 HR LONGTEXTBOOK SETUP. PULLBACK TO THE 38.2 FIB WHICH IS IN LINE WITH STRUCTURE LEVEL. AUD IS STILL FUNDAMENTALLY WEAK, THE CURRENCY NEEDS TO GO LOWER TO SPUR GROWTH SO PAIRING IT AGAINST THE POUND IS A HIGH PROBABILITY TRADE BECAUSE THE POUND IS THE 2ND STRONGEST CURRENCY AFTER THE DOLLAR. WE'VE HAD A TWEEZER BOTTOM AND SUPPORT FOLLOWED BY A HAMMER REJECTING OFF THIS LEVEL. FIRST TARGET ON THIS PAIR IS AT 1.9800
GBPUSD 4 HOUR SHORT LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH GBP BECAUSE OF THE ELECTION WHICH IS CAUSING THE POUND TO DEPRECIATE. PRICE BROKE OUT OF THE RANGE LAST WEEK AND IT IS NOW LOOKING TO RETEST THE RANGE LEVEL (SUPPORT TURNED RESISTANCE). THIS IS A TEXTBOOK TREND CONTINUATION PATTERN (BREAK,RETEST,CONTINUATION) IF PRICE MANHES TO RETRACE BACK UP TO MY SELL ZONE I ALSO HAVE 2 FIB CONFLUENCES WHICH ARE THE 38.2 AND 50 FIB LEVEL. TARGET BACK DOWN AT SWING LOW WHICH IS ALSO A PSYCHOLOGICAL LEVEL.(1.46000) ALSO PRICE SEEMS TO BE APPROACHING A DYNAMIC RESISTANCE (20SMA)
High test close on NZD/CHFPrice action is trending downwards establishing consecutive lower lows and lower highs. A bearish high test rejecting the 0.7490 level, the 50% retracement and closing under the 38.2% Fibonacci level symbolises a continuation setup short potentially into 0.7190.
entry - below high test
stop loss - above high test
target - support area at ~0.7190
A bullish CHF/JPYThe moving averages on CHF/JPY display shapely geometry holding the recent uptrend. There is healthy convergence on both Stochastic and RSI too. A pull back into and just short of ~115, but bouncing off the 0.382 Fibonacci level, has given what will be a bullish low test close implying a long trend continuation setup. Today's low test has also narrowly missed the 10 ema. Price is supported affirmatively above the 10 ema looking aggressive.
Entry - above today's low test
Stoploss - below today's low test, support level (~115) or 10 ema
Target - previous highs at ~117, or ~119 for long term profit taking
Selling Brent CrudeCrude oil has shown a promising downtrend respecting key levels where it's seen to be giving beautiful entries on its visibly apparent journey south. Currently, a high test close rejecting 99.60 after a pullback presents another such entry with a target area aimed at 88.50. 99.60 is within close proximity to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Today's high test close is well below both these levels and is seemingly prepared to continue trending short.
A potential hick up to this short trade is bullish divergence on both the Stochastic and RSI. Other than that, price action seems to dictate a healthy trend continuation move with a hulking potential ninefold reward:risk profile.
entry - below today's high test close
stop - above today's high test close
target - ~88.50
USD/CHF Long set upUSD/CHF has found support at the previous level of resistance after breaking through once a support level at the round level of 0.9040. The pullback from the previous rally has tested this area which is also very close to the 0.382 (38.2%) Fibonacci level. The close of today's bullish price bar is above this area and the 20 ema. Both RSI and Stochastic are in convergence. A profit taking area for a move up would be the high of January 2014 high at 0.9155 above the 1.272 (127%) Fibonacci extension at 0.9040.
USD/CAD Long setupUSD/CAD is an uptrend producing basic price action cyclicity and offering trend continuation entries at the end of consistent pullbacks. Today's bullish reversal bar, though appearing to be a high test close, suggests the resumption of bullish activity back in phase with the overall trend. I'm looking at the following to take a position north:
- low test close of 15th August 2014 rejecting:
- horizontal support (~1.0886)
- 0.382 (38.2%) Fibonacci level from previous swing low, also coinciding with the above mentioned support level at
~1.0886
- 20 ema
- trendline support
- current daily bullish inside bar being an omen of the impulsive wave of the trading cycle (after close above
horizontal support, trendline support, 0.382 Fibonacci level, and 20 ema)
- price action within bullish trendline
How to enter the set up:
- Entry 5 pips above high of today's inside bar (1.0903)
- Set stop loss below mother bar (Friday 15th August close)
- Target areas at previous swing high and above (possibly up to the 1.272 or 1.618 Fibonacci extension level)
(Reward:Risk > 2:1)