GOGO-H&S Bottom, Bull pullback, Fib level; Buy only on bull bar!GOGO is forming the following bullish setups:
1) Head and shoulders bottom, but not yet completed
2) Pullback in a strong bull trend
3) Broke out of trendline, and breakout failed, thus pulling back perfectly to the trendline
4) Price is at a 50% retracement level from the $20 swing high
5) Bull channel and trend in progress
This looks like a good setup for a high 1 buy (bull bar closing above prior bar's high in a pullback of a bull trend). If the high 1 fails, look for high 2 ABC correction.
I would ONLY buy when the price exceeds the prior bar's high (high 1). If you're aggressive you could buy the right shoulder but it may fall lower.
The last pullback was an ABC correction so a high 1 may fail. The highest probability would come from a neckline breakout on a strong bull trend bar (hopefully with no upper tails).
We may see a flag/1-bar pullback at the neckline. The next resistance is reached at $20 (red line, prior swing high) which is great for profit taking.
If the price breaks through 20, expect a pullback. If the pullback fails and we move higher, the bull channel (pink) may be in place and will establish a nice resistance level.
Remember, I am ONLY long on a high 1/ high 2! No position today... watch the close!
UPDATE: I don't know why the channel is so high to the upside but it should be touching the trading range in june, july.
50%rule
Yen long positions look very interesting hereAfter watching the Japanese Yen trend lower for more than 77 weeks it appears we are now starting to see the smatterings of a bottom coming in on the currency. While it may be a bit early to 'pound-the-table' I do see an interesting opportunity presenting itself within the options space. According to my very strict WCTS model, I can only consider a long position (through options) if the current market price of a 6 month option is half of what I believe the intrinsic value of the option will be at my target price. (intrinsic value = strike price - target price). Today I took a look at the call options and we appear to have just that situation. Using a very conservative price target (W. Gann's 50% rule) I believe the currency can realistically trade back into the 1.1377 area. At the same time, I can buy a seven month (December, 2014) 1.10 call option for about .002 points (or about $250). Should the market go to my target, that option will have an intrinsic value of .0377 or about $471. This is an interesting trade because the low cost enables me to buy 2 contracts (total invested is about $500). I will look to sell 1/2 the position should prices double and ride the remaining 'free' position into expiry. Should the Yen appreciate into the Optimal Trade Entry (short) window the remaining option could realistically have $13,000 of intrinsic value - not a bad reward/risk ratio and something all traders should consider in earnest.
Cheers all and I hope my simple analysis is of benefit...
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