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Alexboltyan

EUR/USD Corrects Higher Ahead Of ECB Decision The EUR/USD recovered ground on Wednesday after hitting a fresh monthly low of 1.0808, just a few pips above its YTD low set in March at 1.0805. The pair moved lower during the European session, weighed by lingering geopolitical concerns. However, the U.S. dollar weakened during the New York session – sending the EUR/USD back above the 1.0880 level – mainly weighed by the pullback seen in Treasury yields across the curve. The yield on the U.S. 10-year note dropped to 2.7% after hitting a peak of 2.836% on Tuesday, while the 30-year bond yield fell below 2.8% from a high of 2.871%. On Thursday, the European Central Bank will announce its monetary policy decision. While it is expected to stay put on rates, a more aggressive approach toward inflation is likely. The ECB could also adjust its monthly bond purchases, which, for now, are scheduled to end in the third quarter. Such a stance would be seen as hawkish and could provide some relief to the shared currency. From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD maintains a bearish bias according to indicators in the daily chart, although losing momentum. Both the RSI and the MACD remain in negative territory but exhibit the loss of selling pressure. At the same time, the price remains fairly close to its 22-month low of 1.0805 and below its main moving averages. If the EUR/USD manages to recover the 1.0900 zone, next resistances could be faced at 1.0980, 20-day SMA, and then the 1.1000 area. A critical short-term resistance level is seen at the 1.1150 zone, which represents the 23.6% retracement of the May 2021 - March 2022 decline. On the other hand, failure to consolidate above 1.0900 could resume the selling pressure and send the EUR/USD back to recent lows. A break below the 1.0805-00 area would expose the next support at around 1.0727, the April 2020 monthly low.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
Gold Surges To One-Month Highs After U.S. CPI DataGold prices advanced on Tuesday, with spot XAU/USD reaching a one-month high above $1978 an ounce, as the greenback weakened following the release of the U.S. consumer price index. U.S. consumer prices rose at the fastest pace since late 1981 in March at 8.5% year-over-year, while prices excluding food and energy costs rose at an annualized 6.5%. The dollar retreated versus most rivals, moving in tandem with a pullback of yields across the curve despite inflation figures reinforcing the case for a 50 bps rate hike by the Fed at its next meeting in May. However, this outcome was widely expected and priced in, which could have triggered a correction in the dollar. At the same time, the precious metal continues to benefit from the risk-off environment, while record CPI figures could have prompted investors to seek a hedge against inflation in gold. XAU/USD is climbing for the fifth day in a row, having printed a high of $1978.68 an ounce, last seen on March 14. The technical perspective for XAU/USD remains positive, according to indicators in the daily chart, while the price holds above its main moving averages. Both the MACD and the RSI stay in positive territory, gaining bullish slopes and reflecting increasing buying momentum. There are no signs of exhaustion yet, leaving room for further advances. On the upside, the next target for XAU/USD bulls is seen at the $1990-$2000 area, followed by the recent high of $2070. On the other hand, short-term support could be offered by the 20-day SMA, currently at the $1935 zone, followed by the $1890 area, where the 61.8% retracement of this year’s rally lies.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
EUR/USD Falls Back Below 1.0900, Targets YTD Low The EUR/USD pair is back under pressure during the New York session, having already filled an upward gap left at the weekly opening. The euro-dollar opened the week on a positive note and reached a high of 1.0933, but the upward move lacked follow-through. As a result, the EUR/USD fell back below the 1.0900 mark and currently trades around 1.0880, virtually unchanged from Friday’s close. The risk-averse environment continued to underpin the greenback and US yields while pressuring global stocks on Monday. The yield on the US 10-year note rose to 2.784%, its highest level in more than three years, while the one on the 30-year bond reached 2.824%. The uncertainty surrounding the Russia – Ukraine conflict, coupled with hawkish stances from central banks and recession fears have kept US yields and the dollar on demand. Meanwhile, Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen will go to a second-round vote to define the French presidential election, adding caution to the picture. On the data front, The US will release March’s consumer price index on Tuesday, which is expected to show an annual rate of 8.5% and could affect expectations about the Fed’s next decision. From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD holds a bearish perspective according to technical indicators in the daily chart, although the RSI has turned flat below its mid-line, reflecting the loss of bearish momentum. At the same time, the EUR/USD price trades below its main moving averages, with the 20-day SMA offering immediate resistance around 1.0995, followed by 1.1070 and then the 1.1150 area. A test of the YTD low at 1.0805 is still in the cards as long as the euro fails to regain the 1.1150 zone, which represents the 23.6% retracement of the May 2021 - March 2022 decline. A break below this level could pave the way to the 1.0727 area, April 2020 monthly low.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
US Dollar Index Tests 100.00, Highest Level In Almost Two YearsThe US Dollar Index (DXY) hit a fresh two-year high on Friday at 100.00, as the greenback remains underpinned by persistent tensions in Eastern Europe and soaring US Treasury yields. A hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve and the search for safety flows maintain US yields and the dollar underpinned. The minutes from the last Fed’s meeting published on Wednesday showed many members support a 50 basis points rate hike for the upcoming meetings as the employment remains solid and inflation does not give signs of receding. The DXY, which measures the US dollar against a basket of currencies, has advanced for the seventh consecutive session, hitting its highest level since May 2020 before easing somewhat. At the time of writing, the Index is trading around 99.95, on track to post a 1.4% weekly gain. From a technical perspective, the DXY keeps a bullish bias according to indicators in the daily chart. The price holds near cycle highs and well above its main moving averages, while the MACD signals increasing bullish momentum. At the same time, the RSI is close but has not reached overbought levels yet, leaving room for another leg higher on a break above the 100.00 psychological level. If DXY bulls do manage to break decisively above 100.00, they will target the next resistance at 100.55, monthly high May 14 2020, followed by 100.87, April 24 2020 high. On the other hand, corrective movements should find immediate support at the 20-day SMA around 98.80. A break below the latter could pave the way toward 97.68, March monthly low, and then the 97.00 zone. Still, the short-term dominant bias will remain bullish as long as the DXY holds above an ascendant trendline coming from May 2021 low, currently around 96.50.
TVC:DXY
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
EUR/USD regains 1.0900 but remains vulnerable The EUR/USD pair is recovering some ground on Thursday following the release of quite hawkish ECB accounts. The EUR/USD has managed to recover the 1.0900 mark but remains vulnerable to further losses amid geopolitical uncertainty and a firm dollar. The minutes from the European Central Bank's last meeting showed that many members believe that the high level of inflation called for immediate further steps towards policy normalization. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve also published the minutes of its last meeting which confirmed the view that the Fed is moving to a more aggressive policy contraction and is poised to hike rates by 50 bps at the upcoming meeting on May 4th. US Treasury yields and the dollar have been rallying on the back of Fed’s hawkish expectations, which has taken the EUR/USD to its lowest level in almost two years at 1.0805 in early March and temporarily inverted the US yield curve. From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD holds a mildly bearish tone, according to technical indicators in the daily chart. The RSI and the MACD remain in negative territory, although the RSI is gaining upward slope, signaling the loss of the bearish momentum. At the same time, the EUR/USD pair trades below its main moving averages following five consecutive daily losses, with the 20 SMA acting as dynamic resistance and reinforcing the 1.1000 level. In the 4-hour chart, the bias is turning slightly positive following today’s bounce as the EUR/USD tries to overcome the 20 SMA at the 1.0930 zone and the RSI gains upward slope. If the pair managed to break above this level, next resistances could be found at 1.1000 and then the 1.1070 zone. On the other hand, a loss of the 1.0900 level could intensify the selling pressure, sending the EUR/USD to this week’s low at 1.0865 en route to its YTD low at 1.0805.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
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