Possible Short Trade on BABAWith the fact that BABA has ran up so much this year and the political uncertainty surrounding the potential breakout of major war could bring this down quite a bit. The short trade is something I am considering and will update if I enter a position.
Feel free to comment on this analysis if you have any ideas.
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Alibabashort
BABA will dropHistorically BABA drops on average 7.57% when the VI reaches its current level. I have laid out 3 potential levels it could drop to. The first hurdle (which should easily be met) is 87.88 (pink dotted line). BABA has not been South of this mark since August. My three levels will certainly be in play once the stock drops past this level.
CONSERVATIVE PLAY:
The stock will drop and a nice solid psychological 85.00 is the position I am most comfortable playing.
AVERAGE DROP:
WIth the average drop of 7.57%, a solid 7% drop above the bottom trendlines is a safer play.
BOTTOM OF PSEUDO TRENDCHANNEL:
Although it is not the "official" bottom of the trendchannel, it has been a more common support line in the current trend. This position is just below the 80 mark which is more than a 10% drop from its current position. This is a riskier bet, but not impossible considering international instability and most stocks being significantly overpriced.
Long BABA @ daily @ new all-time high 2017 only question of timeTake care
& analyzed it again
- it`s always your decission ...
(for a bigger picture zoom the chart)
This is only a trading capability - no recommendation !!!
Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ...
Best regards
Aaron
ALIBABA @ 1D Chart @ Basic Scenario technically beatenTrading Capabilities
98.03 < 99.61 : long entry option
92.78 > 90.09 : short entry possible
Bulls could go long into 109.66 at least, to beat a wave and create new b high (may be 2017 with new all time highs)
Bears could go short into 87.70 at least, to beat B wave and create new Basic Scenario
Take care
& analyzed it again
- it`s always your choice ...
Best regards
4XSetUps
ALIBABA @ 1h Chart @ above 1st trading day (after IPO) while thiAlibaba breaked out of trading zone while this september`16
- breakedUP of the 1st trading day (H/L) Session @ after the IPO ...
107.71 (2016-09-23): Friday (last trading) Closed
99.61 (2015-09-19): high of 1st trading day @ after IPO
90.09 (2015-09-19): low of 1st trading day @ after IPO
After the first hype @ after the IPO @ the traders created a gap
in the trading zone (even the 1st trading day @ after the IPO)
107.71 (2016-09-23): Friday (last trading) Closed
97.68 (2015-01-27): high of trading range in the trading zone
91.97 (2015-01-30): low of trading range in the trading zone
While August`16 the market traded the share
again between 90.09 and even 99.61 once again
- even since 2016-06-08 (since around 14 months)
107.71 (2016-09-23): Friday (last trading) Closed
97.18 (2016-08-25): 3rd temporarly daily low after gap into the trading zone back again
93.15 (2016-08-25): 2nd temporarly daily low after gap into the trading zone back again
93.15 (2016-08-15): 2nd temporarly daily low after gap into the trading zone back again
91.31 (2016-08-11): 1st daily low after gap into the trading zone back again
Don`t run after the share - like a missed bus ...
109.75 (2016-09-22): temporarly high - meanwhile yearly high 2016
107.71 (2016-09-23): Friday (last trading) Closed
105.45 (2016-09-15): temporarly high - meanwhile something like a support line
104.27 (2016-09-06): temporarly high - meanwhile something like a support line
98.85 (2016-08-15): temporarly high - meanwhile something like a support line
Use lower intraday prices as an entry. The best case scenario should be even the last both supporting lines around 105.45 & 104.27. Prices once again around 105.45 & 104.27 would - on one side closed the gap (between 106.18 & 106.77) and on other side he bulls could take breath again to climb by the next run trough 110 USD without any problemes. Even into new yearly highs 2016 ...
Take care
& analyzed it again
- it`s always your choice ...
Best regards
4XSetUps