Google/Alphabet long breakout on 785 closeWe broke out of last two downward trendlines. 782.60 is a fib trend target
Tech titan has to hit new ATHs to propel SPY to 2200
Enter at 785
S/L 777
Target 794-800
R/R 1.125
Alphabet
Alphabet [Google] Potentially Breaking the All Time HighGlaxoSmithKline and Alphabet's life sciences unit are creating a new company focused on fighting diseases by targeting electrical signals in the body, jump-starting a new field of medicine known as bioelectronics.
For Verily, the tie-up is the latest sign that Google's desire to move beyond search engines into biology and other scientific areas is gaining traction.
www.cnbc.com
GOOGL Will Increase One More Day and Then Fall NASDAQ: GOOGL has been on an incline for about a month. Reaching past its resistance 1 level. Could it reach resistance 2 in the next day, I would not bet on it. There is probably a higher chance that it will fall back to resistance 1 or even further. If not now, than it will eventually rest in the next week around the 745.00 mark. However, with a recent spike since the beginning of July we could see a significant dip in GOOGL to around the support number of 702.89. I would definitely not buy right now, not enough room for GOOGL to grow in the next few days. Go check it out.
BREXIT YUAN DEVALU: USDCNH - SNEAKY FX FIXING? SELL SPX & FTSEAt the start of 2016 the PBOC began aggressively devaluing the off-shore Yuan against the USD, imo in an attempt to start the year with a competitive export:import advantage - with the aim of making 2016 a headline "come back" year for China amid the growing GDP growth and Credit bubble worries.
As a result Equities across the board sold-off (-8.5% in a few days) as non-chinese Exporters globally feared that their biggest market/ growth market was coming under pressure, as the relative value of their USD exports soared, as Chinese import demand would fall significantly and as a function of the depreciation relative to the USD.
Whilst the initial highly correlated move hit equities by -8.5% (7 days), however when fully priced, the CNH devaluation fears took the SPX down 13% to 1808 lows in just 12 trading days.
The PBOC Deval intervention took CNH to lows of 6.7550 and low-closes of 6.6900.
Brexit - Under the radar and sneaky PBOC FX Intervention?
1. Fast forward 6 months - the Days going into Brexit USDCNH traded at almost exactly the same fix as the pre-deval January level at 6.58 (blue line), then on the most volatile brexit days, the 24th and 29th, PBOC fixed the Yuan 1000pips lower to 6.6850, just above the extreme January lows at 6.6900 - Since then CNH has continued drifting lower, and now has eclipsed the shock January low closes of 6.6900, currently at 6.6960, which is now a new 6 year low.
- This begs the question, did the PBOC plan this as a way to get their goal of competitive depreciation achieved WITHOUT the negative press/ market impacts that were seen in January? The answer is unknown but by looking at the Yuan prices on brexit day and the day after, it certainly looks like it - 1000pip devaluation in 2 days, thats bigger than any deval in CNH's previous history (even from January).
How to trade it?
1. Imo this trade is a no brainer, given the PBOC seem happy to keep fixing CNH higher and have shown no signs of stabilising/ appreciating - with the last 6 daily candles in the green, my bets are that the PBOC in the near-term think they have gotten away with the deval, in the midst of all of the brexit effects e.g. Central Bank information flows are high, the brexit news itself and general market volatility are all acting as distractions - thus the SPX hasnt priced any of this deval YET despite it being more extreme than what caused the 8-13% equities sell off in January?
- I have to admit, it has taken even me until now to realise this sly depreciation, nonetheless this trade (short Equities) is a one up on the market currently as most still havent noticed and continue to focus on central bank action.
LOWER VOL, VOLU AND LOWS. HIGHER CORRS AND HIGHS (GOOG BUY @711)Google C-Class shares i am bullish over the 6-12m, hence I am buying any 5-10% pull backs from highs.
Goog has been moving sideways but i think it has just started a cycle higher, in which it is about to make a higher low at 715 before moving up again to 750+
715-750 is a 5% move hence i am interesting in buying at this price with reward skewed something 1.5:1 with risk.
Coming into earnings, Goog has to make at least one bull run to highs at 770 and i believe this will be the set up for the run for several reasons:
1. since april earnings lows at 687 goog has moved in an upward trend of 688-722-700-736, the next cycle i approximate to be down to 710-3 (volume traded price) then up to 750+ (previous support turned resistance).
Also the Linear regression for the on graph prices is $723, so prices below this are below this cycles average - encouraging mean reversion upwards.
2. Goog volatility correlation is in its negative cycle - the last bull cycle to 768 began with a turn from positive to negative price-volatility correlation change.
- Plus goog's volatility is at yearly lows. Low vols is something that imo is vital for any sustained bull run, as logically, more people want to own a stock that has a greater "normalised" return and risk profile.
3. Volume average divergence - google volume is trading below its 6 month average, lower volume characterises goog's bull runs typically. Since it signifies there are fewer structural sellers that are prepared to sell the stock, thus volume drops and the price is bid up until sell side liquidity is increased sufficiently to meet an equilibrium price.
4. *please see last 3 price bars* - these bars have been highlighted as having a "topside range skew". What is inferred by this is that the candle has more activity at the higher prices e.g. the candle traded at its highs and open more than its close and low - thus this is a bullish signal as the open high and close data stayed in the upper percentiles of the candle.
- Even the first candle in question (the first bear candle), opened and closed at apprx the median price.. this is unusual. the first bear candle after a strong bullish run, usually shows heavy open-close downside skew e.g. the price opens and then closes close to the lows (rather than in the middle of prices traded) - indicating that time period closed with the price being driven/held at the lowest possibility.
If we were to see the opposite e.g. the candles closing on the lows, this would be bearish and indicate the price is wanting to push lower, since there was no difference between the low and close.
Fundamentally i am also long google anyway, hence why i liike buying 5-10% pull backs.
GOOGL looking riskyThis figure jumped out at me this morning when I looked at the weekly log chart. I don't have any particular biais or analysis on this stock, but the chart should speak to some of you.
GOOGL - weak bounce = bears still in control.A weak bullish bounce so far - this makes a further drop towards the base area @ 700.00USD more likely.
Triple top pattern with broken line that is about to be tested Alphabet will have its earnings this week.
$GOOG chart has formed a bearish setup that can be used if you think $GOOG is heading down after earnings.
1. triple top
2. Daily resistance zone
3. Broken uptrend line about to be tested (resistance now)
4. 78.6, 88.6 Fibs are considered reversal levels.
Considering the low volume rally and the strong resistance, it is an interesting bearish setup however earnings can boost this stock above 800$ so be careful if you choose to trade it.
Tomer Jakov, The MarkeZone (@themarketzone on Twitter)
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GOOG Alphabet looking to move higherNice head and shoulders.
Staying above 728, we target 783.
Tech stocks looking goog no.
